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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Hot Tip from the Geek - SP500, Gold, USD/JPY Weekly Expiry - 9/16-23/2013 !!!

    The new Top Five Tips of the week from Michael are here. Check them out and find which are the best binary trading ideas for this week. Test them on CommuniTraders!

    Originaly posted by Michael Hodges.


    S&P 500

    Long Term Weekly Chart – MACD momentum is still bearish. Previous bullish peaks are divergent from the trend. Stochastic is also diverging from the trend at this time. There is an impending bullish crossover so this indicator is still neutral.

    Short Term Daily Chart – MACD is bullish and rising, stochastic is bullish and rising. Both indicators are also currently divergent and could indicate resistance or a top if new peaks are not made.

    Analysis – The taper question is hanging heavy over the market. The index appears to be moving higher but indicators suggest that longer term bearishness is lingering. The current all-time high level is the critical resistance at this time. A break above would be bullish for the next 3-6 months. A failure to break above or to remain above the all time highs would be bearish. A drop from these levels would put the index in danger of a double top reversal with a neck line in the 1625 area. Look for the index to move up from the 1690 area and to fall back from the 1705 level ahead of the Fed. Look for a break or failure to break 1710 after the Fed.


    Gold

    Long Term Weekly Chart – The long term down trend is intact. The recent relief rally and subsequent bullish MACD spike are now subsiding. Stochastic is also indicative of weakness.

    Short Term Daily Chart – The metal has been moving down since failing to hold the $1400 level. Indicators are bearish and point to lower prices.

    Analysis – The metal is now sitting just above support at $1300. The taper question is having a big impact here as well. I am looking for gold to trade higher from the $1300 level and lower from the $1425 level ahead of the Fed meeting. Once the announcement is made look to the $1300 level for guidance. A break below will be bearish with a target down near the $1225 level. A bounce would be bullish longer term with a first target near $1400.



    USD/JPY

    Long Term Weekly Charts – Longer term bearishness is persisting here as well. MACD is bearish but in decline, stochastic is near the middle of the range and oddly flat. The pair broke out of its long term triangle formation but with fairly neutral candles.

    Short Term Weekly Charts – The triangle break out looks a little stronger on these charts but has not made it past the next resistance. Indicators are turning bearish here as well and could lead to lower prices. Support exists at this time at the short term moving average and the top of the aforesaid triangle formation.

    Analysis – The yen is weakening against the major world currencies. The break out of the triangle is proof of that. The taper is placing resistance on the trade though. If the Fed tapers then the dollar should strengthen and this pair should rise. If the Fed doesn’t taper then the dollar may weaken and this pair may fall. Until then I am looking for the USD/JPY to trade up from the 99 level and down from the 100 level. After the meeting the 100 level will be important to watch. A break above will be bullish with a target near 105 and then 110. A failure to break above will find support at 99 and 97.50.



  2. #2
    Specialist Member runneroption's Avatar
    USD/JPY will break barriers and probably will turn bullish this week. M.J analyzes was really very precise and the configuration now is Wedge with very high probability so I don’t think we will see bearish continuation of this pattern or at least not very soon.

  3. #3
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by runneroption View Post
    USD/JPY will break barriers and probably will turn bullish this week. M.J analyzes was really very precise and the configuration now is Wedge with very high probability so I don’t think we will see bearish continuation of this pattern or at least not very soon.
    I feel the same, just nervous with the Fed. It's not wise to trade all the time and this is as good a time as any for me to take a break. I expect that on Monday things will look a lot different than they do now.

  4. #4
    Senior Member LeeChang's Avatar
    The initial reaction on the unchanged FED interest rate was positive for the risk assets, precious metals and foreign currencies. I think this will lead to additional bullish run this evening but there are some risks involved with the Bernanke speech.

  5. #5
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeChang View Post
    The initial reaction on the unchanged FED interest rate was positive for the risk assets, precious metals and foreign currencies. I think this will lead to additional bullish run this evening but there are some risks involved with the Bernanke speech.
    Longer term I am still bullish but I think with the declining momentum (S&P 500) and the new high levels we should expect some profit taking and softness going into the first part of next week. could be a great time to load up on some longer term plays.

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