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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Hot New Tips by Richard –EUR/CHF, GOOG Weekly and Monthly Expiry 7/29-8/04/2013 !!!

    Hi guys,

    The new Richard's Weekly Binary Options Trading Tips ready for you!
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    Originaly presented by Richard Cox.

    The event risks this week only add to the potential for uncertainty. Rate decisions from the Bank of England, European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve are not expected to show anything material in the way of direct policy change. What will actually move markets this week is the contextual bias that is made public at the post-meeting press junckets, as this will give investors an indication of how much each government is willing to put its credibility on the line and commit to positions on stimulus. Do the major economies need help? Or is the economic data improving at a sustainable rate? These are the major questions that need to be answered this week. By Friday’s close, we will know if policymaker’s are ready (or able) to set markets on a clear course.



    1. Last week’s EUR/CHF trade finished a meager 25 points out of the money. Market moves like this are an unfortunate reality when dealing with binary options (which put a clear timeline on a market analysis that could be correct shortly after). As we start the week, valuations are already moving higher, so I will give a couple levels at which to initiate CALL options in the EUR/CHF. This week, look to buy weekly CALL options in EUR/CHF at 1.2320. If we do see prices fall below this area, look to get bullish again at 1.2280.


    2. Recent moves to restrict over-capacity in China lead me to a bearish bias on Copper. Those familiar with the country could easily argue that most of the productivity in China is “overly excessive” and since the government is enacting new measures that implicitly admit this reality, construction materials are likely to see selling pressure into the end of the year. China is the world’s largest copper consumer, and I prefer to play these scenarios using the iPath Dow Jones UBS Copper Total Return Sub-Index ETN (stock symbol JJC). If your binary options broker does not offer a way to get bearish on copper, I suggest you find another broker. Buy one month PUT options in JJC is we see rallies 39.


  2. #2
    Specialist Member marvel's Avatar
    Copper price fell not as much as the Silver for example in last few months; also it is very vulnerable to the economic situation and recovery, because the demand is mostly from the industry. So I think that put options are very favorable here and the levels are not bad, only we have to be prepared for short term swings in the price and month duration of the option contracts is the minimum time we need to allow for the price to develop.

    For me the Swiss Franc is not that clear for the moment. EUR/CHF pair was down for the last several days, but I think there is still some potential for more downside movement and the risk for such a call is great at the moment. After the ECB data tomorrow the situation could change. I will closely follow that pair and if there is some strength in the EUR I will place a call, but not yet.

  3. #3
    Specialist Member marvel's Avatar
    Here is a picture of the EUR/CHF daily price movements as for the moment

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  4. #4
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    EUR/CHF is making a nice trendline break now from the medium term perspective (around 4H). This bodes well for the trade but all of the level recommendations remain valid if we do see drops from here. Advice at this stage is to remain flat unless we see a drop back into the recommendation levels, if we do see this get ready to enter into CALLS once again. All signs point bullish from here.

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  5. #5
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by marvel View Post
    Copper price fell not as much as the Silver for example in last few months; also it is very vulnerable to the economic situation and recovery, because the demand is mostly from the industry. So I think that put options are very favorable here and the levels are not bad, only we have to be prepared for short term swings in the price and month duration of the option contracts is the minimum time we need to allow for the price to develop.

    For me the Swiss Franc is not that clear for the moment. EUR/CHF pair was down for the last several days, but I think there is still some potential for more downside movement and the risk for such a call is great at the moment. After the ECB data tomorrow the situation could change. I will closely follow that pair and if there is some strength in the EUR I will place a call, but not yet.
    These are good points marvel. I think we are in store for some interesting moves in copper, given the fact that construction in emerging markets is going to start to be restricted at the official level.

  6. #6
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    The EUR/CHF showed some very odd price activity into the end of the week, moving higher and breaking some key short term downtrend lines before reversing lower. Prices did close out the week above the strike price (above 1.2320) but it was starting to look dicey there at the end and we almost had a negative close. From a chart perspective there would probably be a lot of people who would argue that a move like this is nothing more than a false bullish break. I think a much better explanation of what happened on Friday would be the fact that excessive volatility re-entered the market after the Non Farm Payrolls report, and that the choppy trading conditions were driven by erratic moves in USD-denominated pairs. Either way, the trade did close in the money and I still expect significant upside in this pair for the remainder of the year. Not sure yet if this will be the forex trade for next week.

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  7. #7
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    JJC is trading below the strike price into the Friday close, and this bodes well for the longer term trend, not so much because we are currently in the money but more because historical resistance areas above 39 have held intact. From a fundamental perspective, the slightly weaker Non Farm Payrolls was another positive (bearish for copper), but the real story here is still China, as they are the largest consumer of these types of construction metals. When we look at the reduced capacity programs that have been enacted by the PBoC, the outlook for copper and Chinese stocks continues to look weak. For traders that are looking for potential positions with longer term time horizons, this is not a bad choice as the probabilities here for failure are fairly obvious. Positions like this do not need to be expressed through the JJC instrument, as any asset with a significant investment exposure to copper would work just fine. Any asset from copper producers to straight futures contracts in the metal should continue to present weakness in the coming months.

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