Poll: Is this a new bull market?

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  1. #1
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar

    Hot Is This A New Bull Market Or Are We Reaching A Top !!!

    It looks like earnings are going to be better than expected this time around. So far the big banks and other notable large cap companies have been able to beat Wall Street expectations and many by a large margin. There have also been a few earnings misses but these seem to be isolated events. There is growing evidence that a new bull market is brewing and that the previous cyclical bear market is now over.

    Economic evidence also supports a healing global economy. As with the earnings front there are some isolated areas of weakness but nothing expected to derail current recovery efforts (at this time). FOMC tapering is firmly on the table and likely baked into the cake by now. We can expect it to start by the end of the year or first part of next year, the question before the market now is when and how exactly will tapering start?

    I am bullish on the markets based on earnings, for this week at least. Next week the FOMC meets, gives us new information and a possible look at what tapering will actually mean. We will also get new U.S. economic data in the form of NFP, unemployment and the first look at 2ns quarter GDP. There is a chance for reversal here should the data, the FOMC and the GDP fail to inspire a positive long term growth outlook. If the outlook remains one of growth and in line with the expected pick up in GDP for the 2nd half the rally could get a real boost.

    My question for you all: Will the FED and GDP reverse the market or is this a new bull market?

  2. #2
    Active Member rockettrader's Avatar
    Very difficult question, Michael! For sure we are going steadily to overbought conditions and sooner or later we will have a surprising selloff but in my opinion. The obvious thinking is that better than expected earnings could only lead to better prices for the stocks, but it is not the only scenario. We saw today that after the better than expected new home sails, the US stock market fell down, which is purely because we are way overbought now and the buyers must sell part of their inventories.

  3. #3
    Veteran Member hchandra's Avatar
    I think with most of good news coming from US market there is possibility this is start of another bull market,
    But judging from Fed, there is sound coming from inside telling me this is artificial, don't know why but it felt like that.
    Fed won't stop easing until 2014 and I think the bull will take control until end of 2013.

  4. #4
    Active Member
    Quote Originally Posted by hchandra View Post
    I think with most of good news coming from US market there is possibility this is start of another bull market,
    But judging from Fed, there is sound coming from inside telling me this is artificial, don't know why but it felt like that.
    Fed won't stop easing until 2014 and I think the bull will take control until end of 2013.
    Bull market is already in place. It is a long lasting big cyclic bull market. Hchandra is right that Fed mostl probably won’t stop easing until 2014 end which means more than a year for market to grow from now. I think also that it is possible the bull market to continue even further into the 2015 year and more with such a big money supply like never seen before.

  5. #5
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    I think it is a bull market too. There are for sure going to be corrections and what not but all will be buying opportunities. Tapering is priced in, the economy is working, now its time to focus on, really focus, on earnings and jobs growth. Corporate balance sheets are in the best condition they have been in for years, maybe decades. Once the money starts flowing again profits will soar. Best case scenario....it could all go to hell real quick too.

  6. #6
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    That breakout above the old all time high set just a month or so ago was really bullish. I don't think the NFP will hurt it too much.

  7. #7
    Veteran Member Ammeo's Avatar
    I think we havent reached the top yet....though some analysts predicting 2014 may see another big drop or a semi to full bubble burst bt i personally dont think this is going to happen. But i do expect China economy to explode in a couple of years cause some of its assets are much more inflated.

  8. #8
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Things are looking hazy but I still think we are going up in the longer term. Next week important data begins to roll in again. It will be the first week of really important since the FOMC meeting and GDP numbers. Tapering is on the minds of everyone, what will the data tell us? Probably to expect tapering sooner rather than later.

  9. #9
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    And so far it is 50/50 on the poll. Very interesting because the charts seem to be at a point of equilibrium at this time too.

  10. #10
    Senior Member Deanfx's Avatar
    The number of Bulls and Bears are absolutely the same. I am Bull too, but the equilibrium at the moment look very difficult to predict.

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