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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Hot New Tips by Richard –AUD/JPY, HON Weekly and Monthly Expiry 7/08-15/2013 !!!

    Hi guys,

    The new Richard's Weekly Binary Options Trading Tips are here!
    Check them out and spot the best trading opportunities presented by Richard!

    Originaly presented by Richard Cox.

    In the week ahead, we should see some bullish sentiment to start the week. Without much in the way of macro data, market attention will start to turn back to corporate earnings, as Alcoa (AA) kicks off the season after the closing bell on Monday. The report will likely spark some Tuesday, given its importance, as Alcoa’s credit was cut to “junk” in May (by Moody’s). Overall, companies listed in the S&P 500 are expected to post earnings increases of 1.8%, a sharp decrease from the 8.7% that was expected just six months ago.

    1. Last week’s AUD/JPY trade closed in the money but not by as much as expected, and I will be looking to “draw from the well” once again in this pair. With prices in the USD/JPY now firmly above 100, the oversold Aussie has some prospect for recovery. High yielding currencies should also benefit from the bullish sentiment created by last week’s jobs numbers. Look to buy weekly CALL options in AUD/JPY at the open, which should be in the 91.80 area.

    2. For stock trades, I will be looking at manufacturing and technology company Honeywell (HON). The stock has seen year-to-date gains of nearly 30% despite growth weakness when looking at the company’s performance from a historical earnings perspective. Looking at Honeywell from an industry perspective, its price-to-book value of 4.5 is high enough above its peers to suggest further weakness. Key resistance is seen nearby (just below 81). Support to the downside is not seen until 76, so there is scope for good sized bear moves near term. Buy one month PUT options in Honeywell at 80.90.

  2. #2
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    The AUD/JPY trade was looking very good in the early parts of the week, came just prior to breaks in short term resistance levels. There was limited follow-through, however, and the market volatility generated by the FOMC minutes sent the AUD/JPY back to new lows for the week. Prices are now about 100 pips below the strike price, so there is still scope (based on indicators like the Average True Range) for the trade to end in-the-money as long as we keep moving higher from here. Either way, it should be tight, and if we do not see any major rallies into the end of the week, I might look to a very similar trade next week. Overall bias is supportive as long as support around 90 holds. The overall commentary from the FOMC should have been supportive for high yielding currencies (like the AUD) and negative for the Yen, but this time it was not the case. Longer-term, this pair still have good potential to run higher.

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  3. #3
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    The FOMC meeting minutes largely suggested that the Fed will continue pumping stimulus into the system even if we do see some modest increases in the base economic data, and stock markets too this as a ready excuse to make another run higher. These types of commentaries have the tendency to go back and forth, so it would not be surprising at all to see other Fed members suggest something in the other direction next week. If this were to occur, it would be a negative for stock markets and likely send Honeywell lower from its extremely elevated levels. Either way, this week's moves in stocks are being driven by the central bank bias and this has been negative for the trade. The break of resistance ahead of $81 does not make the trade look good at this stage, but given the price gaps that were seen after the break, there is a clear indication that this level was the key area to watch for the trade. Prices will need to hold above this area in order to maintain the bullish bias. Any break back below (through resistance turned support) would turn the bias back to sideways and give the opportunity to close in the money prior to expiry.

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  4. #4
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    AUD/JPY is now dealing with support-turned-resistance and a clear line in the sand for momentum. If prices cannot overcome this second red line, this trade will have to "pay the piper." If it does we have a horse race to the finish line for tomorrow, and likely a similar trade next week. Markets are trying to push higher, I think it is individual order flows (ie random banks) that are preventing this. Stay bullish on AUD/JPY, and buy the new Black Sabbath album. These dudes should be eating a peach and enjoying retirement. Instead they are making the most bad-ass record I've heard in years.

    Have a nice weekend.

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    Last edited by RCox; 07-12-2013 at 03:59 AM.

  5. #5
    Specialist Member runneroption's Avatar
    Thank you for the commentaries and pictures Richard. The Aussie pair looks too weak this week to enter longs both in AUD/USD and AUD/JPY, but it is possible to turn bullish next week as the Aussie is too oversold now and showing some signs of a triple bottom on the AUD/USD pair.

  6. #6
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    Click image for larger version. 

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    Key levels
    AUDJPY
    93.1 resistance
    91.3 resistance
    90.1 resistance
    89.7 last
    88.9 support
    87.4 support

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