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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Hot New Tips by Richard –AUD/JPY, ORCL Weekly and Monthly Expiry 7/01-08/2013 !!!

    Hi guys,

    The new Richard's Weekly Binary Options Trading Tips are here!
    Check them out and spot the best trading opportunities presented by Richard!

    Originaly presented by Richard Cox.

    In the week ahead, we will see reduced volatility in the early parts of the week, as traders remain on the sidelines ahead on the monthly Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate surveys. The Fed’s target Unemployment Rate is 6.5%, so this week’s data will be critical in assessing market sentiment with respect to the next moves from the US central bank. NFPs are expected to show a slight dip to 165,000 (after the 175,000 seen in May). The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 7.6%, which is still well above the Fed’s target. If we do see a weaker number, declines in stocks are likely to be short term in nature, as it will lead to increased speculation that the Fed will opt to maintain its QE programs and postpone reductions past September.

    1. Last week’s EUR/CHF trade closed in the money and while there is still significant upside in this pair, I will need to see some evidence that the EUR/USD is stabilizing before entering into new positions in the EUR/CHF. With a significant amount of Dollar-sensitive data on this week’s calendar, I will also be holding off on USD positions until the Non Farm Payrolls are released. Instead, I will be holding a bullish position in the AUD/JPY, which has found support at a key 50% Fib retracement and should see strong upside if the USD/JPY breaks above 100. Buy weekly CALL options in the AUD/JPY at 91.50, but consider closing these positions early if they are in the money going into the NFP release.

    2. For stock trades, I will look to play the weakness in Oracle Corp. (ORCL), which has shown consistent earnings weakness and is now breaking important technical levels. Oracle’s last results showed fourth quarter profits of $3.81 billion ($0.80 per share), which was a worse than expected improvement from last year’s numbers. The stock has posted a modest bounce after breaking the 50% Fib retracement of the rally from $25, so I will use this strength as a selling opportunity. Buy one-month PUT options in ORCL at $30.80.



  2. #2
    Veteran Member Ammeo's Avatar
    I will agree with Oracle Corp. The company is has been very weak in 2013 with consecutive disappointments in quarterly earnings. 1 Month puts may be a very good short term investment.

  3. #3
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    The AUD/JPY and the rest of the Yen-denominated pairs moved higher for the early parts of the week, but later moves in the USD/JPY led to stop loss activity and generated a good amount of JPY strength. The AUD/JPY is trading back about 50 points below the strike price but there is still a lot of activity left in the week that can turn things around. Any strength in Friday's Non Farm Payrolls number will bring another round of selling pressure to the JPY, and send the USD/JPY and AUD/JPY higher. From the fundamental perspective, this week's ADP employment report was very strong at 188,000 new private sector jobs. This bodes well for the trade, as long as the historical correlations betwen the ADP and NFP report holds up.

    From a technical perspective, it is important to watch the USD/JPY for the next direction. The pair did manage to break the main psychological level at 100, as well as the 61.8% Fib retracement of its latest decline (pictured below). Both of these factors are supportive of the AUD/JPY trade, so we will see how things play out in the holiday-thinned trading conditions seen this week. There is big potential here for fireworks, given the reduced liquidity seen in markets.

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  4. #4
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    The ORCL trade has spent most of the week in the money, but prices are consolidating near the strike price so there is not much breathing room so far. The main risk for the trade comes if prices rise above resistance at 31.20 (pictured below). If this happens, prices will likely fill in the gap created in the early parts of the week and stop out some short term bearish traders. Nonetheless, the trade entry is well positioned against this resistance, so as long as prices are able to penetrate support at 29.90, we should see some good downside follow through to support the trade.

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  5. #5
    Senior Member Deanfx's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by RCox View Post
    The ORCL trade has spent most of the week in the money, but prices are consolidating near the strike price so there is not much breathing room so far. The main risk for the trade comes if prices rise above resistance at 31.20 (pictured below). If this happens, prices will likely fill in the gap created in the early parts of the week and stop out some short term bearish traders. Nonetheless, the trade entry is well positioned against this resistance, so as long as prices are able to penetrate support at 29.90, we should see some good downside follow through to support the trade.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    There is some risk involved but I think the trade is good and will end in the money if the NFP volatility don’t bring some unexpected upside spike.

  6. #6
    Specialist Member runneroption's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by RCox View Post
    The AUD/JPY and the rest of the Yen-denominated pairs moved higher for the early parts of the week, but later moves in the USD/JPY led to stop loss activity and generated a good amount of JPY strength. The AUD/JPY is trading back about 50 points below the strike price but there is still a lot of activity left in the week that can turn things around. Any strength in Friday's Non Farm Payrolls number will bring another round of selling pressure to the JPY, and send the USD/JPY and AUD/JPY higher. From the fundamental perspective, this week's ADP employment report was very strong at 188,000 new private sector jobs. This bodes well for the trade, as long as the historical correlations betwen the ADP and NFP report holds up.

    From a technical perspective, it is important to watch the USD/JPY for the next direction. The pair did manage to break the main psychological level at 100, as well as the 61.8% Fib retracement of its latest decline (pictured below). Both of these factors are supportive of the AUD/JPY trade, so we will see how things play out in the holiday-thinned trading conditions seen this week. There is big potential here for fireworks, given the reduced liquidity seen in markets.
    AUD/JPY is really affected by the USD/JPY selling and NFP will affect it additionally if the number is not as good as expected, but it is safer to trade than the usd cross for sure. I am still not sure, which direction will be preferred after the announcement, but the Aussie is still strong and there is a chance that it will end in the money.

  7. #7
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by runneroption View Post
    AUD/JPY is really affected by the USD/JPY selling and NFP will affect it additionally if the number is not as good as expected, but it is safer to trade than the usd cross for sure. I am still not sure, which direction will be preferred after the announcement, but the Aussie is still strong and there is a chance that it will end in the money.
    Great comments about risk, runneroption.

    The AUD/JPY trade finished 16 points in the black this week. Its weak performance is surprising given the clear activity in the USD/JPY, which did what should have been expected.

    Markets are still choosing to beat up on the AUD, and, like it or not, that's generally when I find my friends. At the low points.

    I might choose the same trade next week. Anything in the low 90s is fine for my money.

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