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  1. #1
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar

    Hot Unemployment claims signals that tapering is not eminent. !!!

    Yesterday Bernanke clearly telegraphed when he thinks tapering will begin and end. He also said that the data would not be a trigger, but a thresh hold upon which they would base their decisions (the fomc). Today's unemployment claims signals that the thresh hold may not be as close as some fear. The economy is improving but that improvement is leading new market participants to seek jobs. The inflow of new job seekers will help keep those thresh hold levels at bay until the economy is truly strong. . .

    Futures improved following the announcement, I expect to see the indexes find support over the next two days. If not then we may be in for a bearish ride lower.

  2. #2
    Specialist Member LesterK's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    Yesterday Bernanke clearly telegraphed when he thinks tapering will begin and end. He also said that the data would not be a trigger, but a thresh hold upon which they would base their decisions (the fomc). Today's unemployment claims signals that the thresh hold may not be as close as some fear. The economy is improving but that improvement is leading new market participants to seek jobs. The inflow of new job seekers will help keep those thresh hold levels at bay until the economy is truly strong. . .

    Futures improved following the announcement, I expect to see the indexes find support over the next two days. If not then we may be in for a bearish ride lower.
    Maybe you are right Michael,

    The unemployment will be the major factor in FED decision making and this means that the tapering and closing of monetary easing could be much further into the future. Also the 2% inflation target is still way ahead. As the inflation for 2013 will be most probably a little over 1%. That is also a signal for further continuation of the FED bond buying programe.

  3. #3
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    By Bernanke's speech they want to cut unemployment rate from 7.6% to 6.5-6.8%

  4. #4
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    INdeed, and they want to reach that threshold before they begin......If the participation keeps risiing and jobs creation stays the same then unemployment is going to go up again.....and the inflation rate is not supposed to approach "thresh hold" until late next year.

  5. #5
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    We will see the next moves on the next FOMC statement.The last one was a little shake on market.

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