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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Hot Tip from the Geek -SP500, USD/JPY, Gold Weekly and Monthly Expiry - 06/17-24/2013 !!!

    The new Top Five Tips of the week from Michael are here! Check them out and see which are the best binary trading ideas for this week. Test them on CommuniTraders too!

    Originaly posted by Michael Hodges.


    S&P 500 Setting Up For A Bounce

    S&P 500
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1640
    Expiration = 1 Week/1 Month

    The S&P 500 is setting up for a text book long term trend bounce. This technical event is supported by a strong buy signal from the stochastic oscillator. The index is moving up from the long term trend, trading above the 30 moving average and is also supported by MACD analysis. The MACD is currently on the bearish side of the signal line but my read is showing support here as well. In the short term there is resistance around the all-time highs at 1687 and in the near term markets may be volatile into the end of the week.

    Because of the signal being generated here I am trading two positions on the SPX this week. One will be for a one week expiration and the other for one month. My target entry is below 1640. This is close to the 30 day EMA, an area I see the markets trading around up and into the FOMC statement release. There is some data coming out tomorrow but I don’t think it will be enough by itself to tank the market. The next significant event for the week will be the Wednesday FOMC release. After that Thursday and Friday will be very full.




    The Yen Reaches The Original Target

    USD/JPY
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = Below 95
    Expiration = 1 week

    The yen has been strengthening against the dollar over the last few weeks as traders and investors have taken profits out of the market. The USD/JPY currency pair may now be at a point where it can find some long term support. It is currently trading just shy of 95, the original target set by Shinzo Abe. If we look back at the charts we can see 95 has been one of the most important levels over that time period. All four of the longest candles, both bullish and bearish, occurred at or near 95. They also occurred at key junctures of the nomination, election and confirmation processes for both Abe and Kuroda, as well as the BOJ policy changes. Apparent lack of support from the two of them have helped to strengthen the yen to this level but I think that this is the level the BOJ will defend. It makes sense, Abe and Kuroda are cohorts in this scheme to devalue the yen. I am trading calls on the USD/JPY with a target entry below 95 and a one week expiration. I will be watching closely and may add another position later this week so keep an eye out on Communitraders.





    Still Bearish On Gold

    Gold
    Call/Put = Put
    Entry = Above $1385
    Expiration = 1 Month

    I am still bearish on gold. I am still looking for the retest of the lows around $1326. My analysis still supports this move. Gold will likely be a little volatile going into Wednesday afternoon but should find direction once the FOMC statement is out. I am trading puts with a one month expiration and a target entry above $1385.



  2. #2
    Senior Member LeeChang's Avatar
    USD/JPY call and Gold Put will end in the money most probably at Monday open, but EUR/USD and SP500 calls will end out of the money. So almost fifty-fifty wining rate for the week! The JPM call is still questionable, as the stock is stable for the moment.

  3. #3
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    this week was tricky. My S&P call is not looking good at this time. Lets see how the unemployment data is and where the market ends....It may be time to start adjusting my analysis but I would really like to see a better retest of highs/resistance first.

    Gold, OMG, -$70 right now and well below my forecast $1326. It looks as though it may be possible for gold to move even lower and hit some other targets I have seen in the media. Some as low as $1200.

    JPY bounced from the $95 level, the FOMC stance added to the support and now this trade is on the way back up. Long term resistance at 100

    I think I'm going to go make a short term snap-back play on gold.......

  4. #4
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Good G......! I did not see that coming. Not a great week for me but not a total loss..... I did get the put on gold and the call on JPY correct.

  5. #5
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    Good G......! I did not see that coming. Not a great week for me but not a total loss..... I did get the put on gold and the call on JPY correct.
    Interesting that you would say that. I actually thought your tips were great this week!

  6. #6
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by vinayakm View Post
    Interesting that you would say that. I actually thought your tips were great this week!
    My dismay is sparked by the S&P....it was possible to get into calls well well well below my target rate of 1640 (1570ish now :-) )

  7. #7
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    US stock futures continued to fall.S&P500 fell during the European trading session.Stock prices have been under pressure since the middle of the last week when Ben Bernanke said it's possible that this year comes to reduction in bond buying program.

  8. #8
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by milos View Post
    US stock futures continued to fall.S&P500 fell during the European trading session.Stock prices have been under pressure since the middle of the last week when Ben Bernanke said it's possible that this year comes to reduction in bond buying program.
    The sell off is over blown, stocks are showing signs of rebounding ahead of earnings season. Tapering is on the table now and is baked into the cake as Santelli likes to say. Data is good and shows an economy that is still recovering, if these trends continue into the end of the year when tapering is signaled to begin then it will be time.

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