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  1. #1
    Veteran Member hchandra's Avatar

    Non Farm Payroll (June) !!!

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    Looking at the current charts of NFP change, we can see the trend still positive and stable compare to year 2008
    I believe today forecasted 167k numbers might be hard to reach with ADP announced on Wednesday only reach 135k

    But most important point is, if NFP number come out lot weaker then all talks about Fed stopping its QE will be imminent,
    Fed has inflation target of 2% and unemployment target of 5.2 - 6%
    Will wait, a strong number means stronger dollar,
    weak number means weaker dollar and lot of discussion about Fed bond purchase programs will take place

  2. #2
    Specialist Member marvel's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by hchandra View Post
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    Looking at the current charts of NFP change, we can see the trend still positive and stable compare to year 2008
    I believe today forecasted 167k numbers might be hard to reach with ADP announced on Wednesday only reach 135k

    But most important point is, if NFP number come out lot weaker then all talks about Fed stopping its QE will be imminent,
    Fed has inflation target of 2% and unemployment target of 5.2 - 6%
    Will wait, a strong number means stronger dollar,
    weak number means weaker dollar and lot of discussion about Fed bond purchase programs will take place
    I don’t think we will reach the consensus 167k estimate. The US dollar index is trading lower during the last three weeks, and it is almost 4% lower than the maximum of 84.50 during May this year. I think the global trend of rising dollar is already gone and we will see dollar weakening during the next couple of weeks or even more. The NFP number could trigger such an action. The big unknown is what will happen with the stock markets. They could continue to grow independently of the weakening dollar, or to start decline together with the declining dollar, which is rather unusual, but not totally imposible.

  3. #3
    Senior Member LeeChang's Avatar
    The US Non Farm Payroll came better than expected 175K. That lead to a big market noise because I think the crowd was prepared for worse than expected data and was surprised after the announcement. After initial spike lower the US dollar index climbed steadily to 81.70 with preannouncement value of 81.30. US Dollar advanced against all major currencies, with 50 to 100 pips movements.

  4. #4
    Specialist Member LesterK's Avatar
    The US non farm payroll rise influenced not only the major currency pairs, but also commodities like Gold and Silver. All of them dropped strongly after the expectations of better performing US economy come back. This is showing that the expectations for better performance of stock over precious assets is still active.

  5. #5
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    one important aspect of the jobs report, mainlly in the unempoyment numbers, is that participation rate is increasing, people are coming back to the workforce. If this continues it could keep unemployment levels above the fed's sweet spot. This puts tapering on the back burner for now and will open up the road for stock bulls. We may be finding some opportunities to get back into bearish trades on the euro and bullish trades on the yen. (eur/usd and usd/jpy)

  6. #6
    Veteran Member hchandra's Avatar
    Agree with you Hodges,
    Seems we got better than expected number which lead to Spike in Dollar,
    I believe this bull in dollar and bull in stock market will hold for some time with the numbers.
    Bearish trade on the EUR/USD will be interesting

  7. #7
    M.J
    M.J is offline
    Veteran Member M.J's Avatar
    Previous week more than 90% of the u.s data was worse than expected. eur/usd has already almost recovered from NFP impact. Technically eur/usd has found resistance near 1-may high. Current situation is more like "waiting for breakout" which is expected to occur in favor of bearish trend.

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