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  1. #1
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar

    Hot Top, Correction or Buying Opportunity? !!!

    with the U.S. markets down three days in a row the bears are gearing up for some more selling. How do you view the current market? Is this a buying opportunity, market correction or the start of the next bear market?

  2. #2
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    my charts are winding up for a long term bounce. Provided of course the S&p 500 can brake out to a new high. Current target 1675 near term and then 1725

  3. #3
    Veteran Member hchandra's Avatar
    I think negative outlook from world bank much less will give impact to the trend, here is from bloomberg today, with several outline
    Asian Stocks Slip on World Bank as Kiwi Drops; Yen Gains
    - The global economy will expand 2.2 percent in 2013, the World Bank said yesterday, paring a January forecast of 2.4 percent.
    - Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) fell as much as 6.6 percent, down more than 20 percent from a May 22 high, poised to enter a bear market at the close.
    - “We expect continued volatility until we get a more stable U.S. rates environment and ultimately a clearer picture on QE tapering,”

    My chart also showing mid-long term bounce, but if current support broken I think we might see 1560 - 1580 area visited,

  4. #4
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    it all comes down to long term support and trend. I don't think Japan has that much weight on the global picture, the wild swings in the NIkkie and the yen are driven by policy and rhetoric, underlying fundamentals are being lost in the noise and confusion.

  5. #5
    Specialist Member TAllen1429's Avatar
    Hi Michael,

    I tend to agree with you about Japan. Here is what I think is the basic issue:

    The central force behind the current uncertainties plaguing the markets is, in my opinion, the US Federal Reserve. This central bank has instigated very aggressive stimulus packages, such as its $85 billion monthly asset purchasing program, which have help drive the markets on an extensive bull run during 2013 to hit historic highs in May. Consequently, investors are now anxious to receive any news from the Fed’s policy meeting, scheduled for next week, disclosing that it is could be ready to start slimming down its extensive quantitative easing policies.

    Whatever materializes from next week's meeting will dictate future trends. I do not think anything else comes close to matching the importance of this event.

  6. #6
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    Hi Michael ,Hi Allen
    US. stock price have fallen during the previous day in another very turbulent trading.Expectation that today's report on new claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. have fallen, thus confirming the good results last week from the labor market in the U.S. has increased belief that the Federal Reserve to reduce program this month's meeting of the monetary incentives.Close to U.S. trading session S&P500 fell 0.84% and Nasdaq 1.06%. yesterday.U.S. stock price during during the morning helped slowly to decline.This the fourth consecutive decline in the S&P500 index.Investors with care awaiting report on retail sales and employment in USA that will be published today.During the European trading session S&P500 fell 0.24%.

  7. #7
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by TAllen1429 View Post
    Hi Michael,

    I tend to agree with you about Japan. Here is what I think is the basic issue:

    The central force behind the current uncertainties plaguing the markets is, in my opinion, the US Federal Reserve. This central bank has instigated very aggressive stimulus packages, such as its $85 billion monthly asset purchasing program, which have help drive the markets on an extensive bull run during 2013 to hit historic highs in May. Consequently, investors are now anxious to receive any news from the Fed’s policy meeting, scheduled for next week, disclosing that it is could be ready to start slimming down its extensive quantitative easing policies.

    Whatever materializes from next week's meeting will dictate future trends. I do not think anything else comes close to matching the importance of this event.
    I just erased all my previous analysis from the SPX chart and redrew it. I think that since the index crossed into new territory everything that came before reaching that level doesn't matter any more. The U.S. and world economies are in new territory as well with easing, stimulus, tapering and unwinding on the minds of us all. The FOMC meeting will be important but I think that with the most recent unemployment figure the fed will not taper anytime soon and may signal as much at the meeting. I view the markets as nuetral to bullish for now. The previous all time high is the new major long term support level to watch, a break below there will be bearish indeed. . . Click image for larger version. 

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  8. #8
    Senior Member Deanfx's Avatar
    US market is UP, after two days in a row trading sideways down, today we see strong rally and we are finishing in positive territory. This is a good sign for prevailing bullish for the next couple of days. I am even betting that in one or two weeks we will see breaking all time highs in some of the markets!

  9. #9
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    S&P500 index has continued with oscillations that move above 1631.Good economic data that was released yesterday in the U.S. have encouraged the growth of the index.At the same time increase the likelihood that the Fed's meeting which will be held next week to be adopted some form of reduction of monetary stimulus.Good economic data released in the United States have raised optimism in the market.Investors believe that the recent decline was excessive to have again started to invest in the stock prices.At the closing of the U.S.trade yesterday S&P500 rose 1.48% and Nasdaq rose 1.32%.

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