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  1. #1
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar

    Balance of Evidence Suggests Weak Non Farm Payrolls !!!

    Balance of Evidence Suggests Weak Non Farm Payrolls

    Today's Non Farm Payrolls report will guide market sentiment into the Friday close and the balance of the evidence tilts the bias to the downside for the final result. Early in the week, market expectations called for an increase of 140,000 jobs for April (after the disappointing 88,000 seen in March). This, along with an unchanged unemployment rate at 7.6%. Whisper numbers are starting to suggest a smaller rise of 125,000 new jobs for the month, however, after the lower than expected ADP employment figures, coming in at 119,000 when 150,000 was expected.

    To play this, I will be watching the USD/JPY, as we are starting to see a pre-data range forming in the 98 region. Hourly of end-of-day CALLS in the USD/JPY can be taken on an upside break of 98.30. If the number is negative, look to enter into USD/JPY PUTS on a downside break of 97.60. This downside area is a "support turned resistance" zone and hourly PUTS can be taken here.

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    Those looking at stocks should watch for a downside break of 1575 in the S&P 500 to enter into hourly PUTS. If the NFP number is strong, playing CALLS will be trickier because an upside break of resistance will still need to deal with the 1600 before making a real run higher. An upside break of 1600 should lead to a positive close for the day in the S&P.

  2. #2
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    April NFPs = 165 K jobs

  3. #3
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    98.30 is working well as a breakout point in the USD/JPY after the better than expected number. Short term trades taken should be OK for the day.

    Click image for larger version. 

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  4. #4
    Specialist Member marvel's Avatar
    Thanks for the idea Richard! I really did it and make fast 100$ on this USD/JPY move in a matter of seconds

  5. #5
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by marvel View Post
    Thanks for the idea Richard! I really did it and make fast 100$ on this USD/JPY move in a matter of seconds
    Glad to hear it. It was a pretty good day from a chart perspective, markets obeyed technical levels nicely.

  6. #6
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by RCox View Post
    Glad to hear it. It was a pretty good day from a chart perspective, markets obeyed technical levels nicely.
    No doubt, a text book moving average bounce ...

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