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  1. #1
    M.J
    M.J is offline
    Veteran Member M.J's Avatar

    29-april to 3-May (usd,gbp,eur,jpy) !!!

    Last week passed with many eyes waiting for usd/jpy to reach "100" level.

    Important fundamentals

    Monday is Showa holiday for Japan and nothing important about eurzone, us or uk.

    Tuesday - > No important fundamentals.

    Wednesday will be an important and highly active day for investors following u.s fundamentals.
    First we have ADP Non-farm payrolls data which came less than expected last month. Current data is also expected to be slightly less than previous month so weaker usd is expected especially if actual data came worse than expected.
    Then we have manufacturing PMI. Historical data for last 6 months shows growth in this sector except in the month of dec-2012. Even though april release has shown growth but it was less than expected which caused negative impact on usd. Current forecast is 51.0 which is less than last month release. Less than 51.0 will have strong negative affect on usd.
    Next we have FOMC. trend depends on release.
    Lastly we have Interest rate release which is expected to be unchanged.

    Thursday
    ECB is likely to decrease Interest rate to 0.5%.
    Initial Jobless claims data for U.S is expected rise which will cause usd to fall.
    U.S Trade deficit is expected to decrease slightly.

    Friday
    Japan will be celebrating another holiday...
    Nonfarm payrolls data for U.S. Previous month data was much worse than expected. This month forecast is high but actuals will most probably will not be as worse as it was last month.
    Unemployement rate is expected to remain unchanged.

    Saturday
    Japan will be celebrating another....................

    Holidays should be renamed as "Japan day"

  2. #2
    Specialist Member LesterK's Avatar
    Perfect weekly review M.J! Thank you for your efforts to make this brief outlook here! Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will be much more dynamic than the first two days of this week, especially the last two days. We have to be patient and to wait for them as the volatility and the trading opportunities will greatly increase then.

  3. #3
    M.J
    M.J is offline
    Veteran Member M.J's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by LesterK View Post
    Perfect weekly review M.J! Thank you for your efforts to make this brief outlook here! Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will be much more dynamic than the first two days of this week, especially the last two days. We have to be patient and to wait for them as the volatility and the trading opportunities will greatly increase then.
    I think Wednesday will be the most dynamic day of the week. Thursday may also be nearly similar.
    Because on Wednesday, important news will come in different times of the day which will cause volatility to remain for longer period. Non-farm payrolls data will be released at 12:15 gmt. Then at 14:00 gmt, we have manufacturing PMI. 18:00 gmt, FOMC and interest rate decision.

    On thursday, there r news from multiple areas but all at 12:30gmt, except interest rate decision by ECB which is at 11:45 gmt.

  4. #4
    Active Member
    Quote Originally Posted by M.J View Post
    I think Wednesday will be the most dynamic day of the week. Thursday may also be nearly similar.
    Because on Wednesday, important news will come in different times of the day which will cause volatility to remain for longer period. Non-farm payrolls data will be released at 12:15 gmt. Then at 14:00 gmt, we have manufacturing PMI. 18:00 gmt, FOMC and interest rate decision.

    On thursday, there r news from multiple areas but all at 12:30gmt, except interest rate decision by ECB which is at 11:45 gmt.
    I don’t understand you very well M.J. The manufacturing PMI and FOMC meeting and rate decision is on Wednesday it is true, but Non Farm Payrolls are on Friday isn’t it? Also Wednesday will be a holiday in most of the European countries, that’s why the liquidity during the European session will be very low and respectively the volatility too I guess.

  5. #5
    M.J
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    Veteran Member M.J's Avatar
    BLS will release non-farm payroll on friday. But ADP releases this data 2 days before BLS release. ADP's data is considered to be an accurate estimation of BLS figures about non-farm payroll data.
    It is same as preliminary release of GDP which has high importance and considered to be an accurate estimate of actual GDP figures.

  6. #6
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by M.J View Post
    BLS will release non-farm payroll on friday. But ADP releases this data 2 days before BLS release. ADP's data is considered to be an accurate estimation of BLS figures about non-farm payroll data.
    It is same as preliminary release of GDP which has high importance and considered to be an accurate estimate of actual GDP figures.
    Well ADP is correlated data, its not an estimation of Non Farm Payrolls.

  7. #7
    Specialist Member runneroption's Avatar
    Richard is right. ADP is only correlated but not a preliminary estimation of NFP. There is no preliminary data on the NFP, that's why we see such a strong volatility after the actual announcement.

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