This week's Australian jobs number sets up a possible trade for Thursday. The report will be released at 1:30 GMT on 4/11/2013.
Reasons for expected volatility come from the fact that the numbers from the previous month were massive (a 71,500 jobs increase is substantial for such a small country). This month, markets are looking for a drop of -7,500 jobs so a validation of these negative expectations could change some of the interest rate expectations for the country. Australia has been one of the few countries this year with an potential change in interest rates, so we are seeing a scenario where the currency could see some enhanced volatility in coming months.
Given the current situation on the charts, it makes sense to use two pairs to play the number. If we see a positive result, look to buy CALL options on breaks above 1.05 in the AUD/USD. If we see a negative result, look to buy PUTS in the AUD/JPY at the elevated levels, on a break below 1.0290. A downside number will also present some longer term opportunities for those that missed last week's rally in the AUD/JPY.
The Australian economy is really in a great shape and has improved a lot during the last several months. I am not sure about the exact number this month. It could be not so good as the previous one, but even if it is bad one I don’t think we will see 1.0290 in the next few days!
Levels to watch have changed. To the downside, watch 1.0495, a break here triggers PUT signals. To the upside, 1.0580 is the critical area. A break here triggers CALL options. These levels will probably hold into the number.
This doesnt relate to the thread. Today's support and resistance numbers are old hat, and there is no explanation for why you think these numbers will act as support or resistance. I think you are another dude copying analysis from other sources.
If anyone is interested, the jobs number in Austraila was horrendous at -36,000 jobs. Its important because the number from the previous month was god-like at 74K. Expect volatility in the Aussie as the central bank doesnt even have enough info at this point to make informed statements about interest rate policy.
sharp downward movement took place, but it gave 161% retracement.. and moved way up the 1.0500 level... for aussie, you cannot always rely on fundamentals, because it often gives opposite movement... so trade what u see... currently its playing in a wider range...