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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Hot Tip from the Geek - SP500, JPM, Nikkei Weekly and Monthly Expire - 08-15/04/2013 !!!

    Hi guys,

    The New Top Five Tips of the week from Michael are here!
    This week we will see some corporate data, which will shape the market moves. Check Michael tips and find out the best trades for the week!

    Originaly posted by Michael Hodges.

    S&P Waiting For Earnings

    SPX
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1550
    Expiry = end of the month

    The bad jobs report on Friday is a concern but it is only just one piece of data. Spring slowing in jobs should have been expected. When I looked back at my table of job growth last March saw a big dip as well followed by a short period of slower job growth. Based on this I would expect to see something similar this year unless housing just explodes with new construction. This is affecting my longer term outlook as I am still looking for a long term top to kick in. This could happen soon, especially if the S&P can’t get above 1575. In the short term I still see upside in the market going into earnings season.

    The jobs report was bad, it sent the S&P 500 down by 20 points. What it also did was test support and support was there. 1550 looks like a pretty strong level based on the Friday candle and the line which the bulls and bears will battle over this week. I am waiting for after Alcoa’s release to make my trade but I am looking to get into calls below 1550 with an end of the month expiration. If Alcoa’s report is really bad, or outlook is really bad I may have to change my stance. A serious break below 1550 could take the index down to 1525 by the end of the week.


    A Whale Of A Trade

    JPM
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below $48
    Expiry = end of the week


    JP Morgan stock has been moving down lately but only on talk. Speculation over Jamie Dimon’s responsibility with the Whale trade and whether or not he is fit to run the business have over shadowed the facts. The facts are this is JP Morgan and Jamie Dimon we’re talking about. He is arguably the best CEO in the financial industry, well respected and highly capable. With the stock down the way it is, about 5% from the recent peak, the candle formation last week and earnings on Friday I can’t help but take a trade on this one. I am trading calls on JP Morgan with an entry below $48 and an end of the week expiration. I am going to wait until at least Tuesday before buying, I want to see how Alcoa does and how the markets react to it.


    Nikkei Rally Has Two Long Legs Names Abe And Kuroda

    Nikkei 225
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 13,100
    Expiration = end of the month


    The Nikkei trade has gotten its legs. The policy and direction of Abe has been enforced and enacted by Kuroda and now the expectations of the market can come to pass. Japan is going to keep printing yen and buying purchasing assets with government funds until it reaches the 2% inflation target. I have read some estimates that this could take up to 2 years. During this time the Nikkei will keep rising as more and more yen become available. I am in a buy on the dip mentality on this one. I am trading calls on the Nikkei with an entry below 13,100 with an end of the month expiration.

  2. #2
    Senior Member linda_fx's Avatar
    Hi, Michael!
    I hope you will have better month this April! I like your Euro and USD/JPY long ideas. I think your Calls in the stock indexes and JPM will also end in the money eventually. I don’t want to take long positions for now, as I am expecting some volatility especially after the end of the April, which could give us much better levels for long entries. This week I expect to be more calm and quite than the previous one, but still some surprises are not ruled out!

  3. #3
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    you can never rule out surprises. I got one yesterday when the amrkets rallied into the close. I may not get my target entry for the S&P this week.

  4. #4
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    The s&P has entered an area where it is now highly susceptible to reversal. Corporate earnings, and more to the point guidance, could impact the outlook. Today's jobless claims numbers are good for teh ongoing recovery and a good sign for earnings in q2. We'll have to keep a close eye on earnings, guidance and data over the next couple of weeks.

  5. #5
    Specialist Member runneroption's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    The s&P has entered an area where it is now highly susceptible to reversal. Corporate earnings, and more to the point guidance, could impact the outlook. Today's jobless claims numbers are good for teh ongoing recovery and a good sign for earnings in q2. We'll have to keep a close eye on earnings, guidance and data over the next couple of weeks.
    Hi, Michael!

    This week very interesting development of the stock market we could see! It was a total surprise for me. I know we are in a bull trend but after several days of low volatility and small gains, I expected reversal or at least partial retracement this week. Totally opposite we see now four days in a row market is strongly climbing to new all time highs! I think it is telling us something but not sure what!? Do you think we are just in the bull market beginning or it is the final uptick before we will see selloff?

  6. #6
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    The s&P has entered an area where it is now highly susceptible to reversal. Corporate earnings, and more to the point guidance, could impact the outlook. Today's jobless claims numbers are good for teh ongoing recovery and a good sign for earnings in q2. We'll have to keep a close eye on earnings, guidance and data over the next couple of weeks.
    Really Mikey, jobless claims got ya? This market has been a sell for months. Take the hit, losses happen sometimes.

  7. #7
    Junior Member
    Quote Originally Posted by RCox View Post
    Really Mikey, jobless claims got ya? This market has been a sell for months. Take the hit, losses happen sometimes.
    Sell? Too early to say it is It could be somewhere in the future but not now. I don’t expect to see big selloff at least till the end of the month, probably nor in the next 2-3 months.

  8. #8
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by RCox View Post
    Really Mikey, jobless claims got ya? This market has been a sell for months. Take the hit, losses happen sometimes.
    I know it is possible but I just don't see it yet. Reversal is eminent but I always get burned when I get into the bear too soon. I didn't get into the S&P this week cause it moved too quick and I didn't chase prices. There could be another little pullback on the way but I really think there is going to be a good bounce into the 1600's before the bear sinks his claws in. The releases from JPM and WFC this morning were basically good, once the markets digest this news and we get into the meat of earnings season next week I think we could see this bounce begin. The bull is not over yet, the surprising strength of Q1 should help earnings and the near term rally....the recent negative data will affect longer term outlook, earnings possibilities and may be the early signals of the bear market everyone is expecting. Until we get a real signal in the charts I have to remain bullish.

  9. #9
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by bulltrader View Post
    Sell? Too early to say it is It could be somewhere in the future but not now. I don’t expect to see big selloff at least till the end of the month, probably nor in the next 2-3 months.
    I think it could be after earnings season, especially if the data weakens over the next 4-6 weeks.

  10. #10
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    may be the early signals of the bear market everyone is expecting. Until we get a real signal in the charts I have to remain bullish.
    I don't think everyone is expecting a bear market, I think a lot of people are drinking the kool-aid. Some strategies view excessive moves in themselves to be (problematic) reversal signals. I find myself to be a member of that church, especially when macro numbers show non-existent growth. Got any sports teams ya like Mikey Boy?

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