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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Hot New Tips by Richard - EUR/CHF, ORCL Weekly Expiry 08-15/04/13 !!!

    The new Richard's Weekly Market Outlook is here!

    This week will be much lighter in terms of economic data, but we will still have some important moments, like Bernanke speak on Monday evening! Check Richard’s tips and find the best opportunities now!

    Originaly posted by RCox.

    Stock markets reversed sharply into the end of the week, as US employment data came in much lower than markets were expecting. March Non Farm Payrolls showed an increase of 88,000 new jobs for the month, which is less than half of the original market expectation. The Unemployment Rate saw a one tick decrease to 7.6% but traders were focused on the headline figure and the majority decision was to sell stocks at their already elevated levels. The result of 88,000 jobs was the lowest number in 9 months so the main question investors should be asking at this stage is whether or not this is a one-off anomaly or the beginning is a larger and more disconcerting trend.

    Next week, we have a much lighter data calendar, so trading will likely be guided by any new sentiment driven headlines out of Europe (if there are any). One potential driver will be seen early in the week, as Fed Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to speak on Monday. We could see some response related to the weaker employment data and the general tone of any comments like this could be a short term driver of sentiment. Other than this, trading will likely be based mostly on technical analysis, as next week’s fundamental drivers are limited.


    1. Last week’s CALL in the EUR/CHF barely finished in the money even though 1.2130 did turn out to be the dead bottom for the week. I will once again look to “draw from the well” at these levels as markets are giving another opportunity to get bullish. Upside potential continues to be massive for this pair and any signs of weakness should be viewed as a buying opportunity. We could see some downside momentum early in the week (hangover from Friday’s economic data), as the Euro is considered to be a risk currency and the CHF has some safe haven status. Because of this, I will be looking to buy weekly CALLS in the EUR/CHF on a spike down to 1.2110.

    2. For stock trades, I will be looking for weakness in non-defensive stocks and the situation in Oracle is starting to show potential for PUTS. The company’s last round of earnings data missed market estimates and led to stock downgrades. From a technical perspective, prices are finding Fib resistance at current levels, so I will be looking for weekly PUTS in ORCL at 32.10, expecting general weakness in stocks next week.

  2. #2
    Specialist Member LesterK's Avatar
    The NFP data was too week and this is a potential threat to the markets this week. Also the Bernanke speech latter today will give some long term indications on where the markets are heading now. The situation now is very difficult to predict as some markets (like US stocks) are well overpriced and others like EUR/USD I think are undervalued at this moment. EUR/CHF is again a good choice for Call options and I will also consider to enter such a trade!

  3. #3
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by LesterK View Post
    The NFP data was too week and this is a potential threat to the markets this week. Also the Bernanke speech latter today will give some long term indications on where the markets are heading now. The situation now is very difficult to predict as some markets (like US stocks) are well overpriced and others like EUR/USD I think are undervalued at this moment. EUR/CHF is again a good choice for Call options and I will also consider to enter such a trade!
    At the moment, the USD/JPY and EUR/CHF are the clearest bets in the currency markets. We are already seeing big gains in the EUR/CHF this week, the next major area to watch is the triple top at 1.2170.

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  4. #4
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Expected move higher in EUR/CHF looks to already be in the works, unlikely to get in at lower levels. Not expecting much resistance until the 38.2% Fib level at 1.2220.

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  5. #5
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    The usd/jpy is the closest thing to a sure thing I have ever seen in trading... lets hope that view doesn't bit us in the ass.

  6. #6
    Junior Member
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    The usd/jpy is the closest thing to a sure thing I have ever seen in trading... lets hope that view doesn't bit us in the ass.
    Of course it will do, as it always happen if we are over confident in our analyzes but not sure when and which will be the barrier levels. My wild guess is that it will stop at 100 where already exists so many options barriers and stops!

  7. #7
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    I don't disagree with that. Often when bets become too obvious and a clear majority is seen in the markets, it does get to a point when there is nobody left to buy. Once those traders start to book profits, prices reverse and many of those original traders get stopped out (further enhancing the opposing momentum). For the USD/JPY, I will probably continue to buy dips until we get into the 118-120 region.

  8. #8
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    ORCL has moved above Fib resistance, looking less likely to see an in-the-money close this week.

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  9. #9
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by RCox View Post
    ORCL has moved above Fib resistance, looking less likely to see an in-the-money close this week.

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    Oracle should be a good bearish play, an entry near the 50% retracement should work for weekly or monthly trades.

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