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  1. #1
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar

    US Non Farm Payrolls Set Up Friday Trade !!!

    US Non Farm Payrolls Set Up Friday Trade

    The main data event for the week will be the US Non Farm Payrolls report, which is scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT on 4/5/2013. Market expectations are elevated for the report, given the strong report seen last month (a rise of 236,000 for the month). This month, the consensus estimate is seen at 198,000 jobs created. We are seeing some early indications that the number could come in weaker, however, as private employment measured by ADP came in much lower at 158,000 and non-manufacturing ISM also showed weakness. The US services sector makes up roughly 70% of the economy, so surveys like this are significant. With stock markets looking top-heavy at elevated levels, risk sentiment clearly has more room to extend to the downside. In addition to the headline number, traders should watch for past revisions, as the strong number from last month could easily be revised lower and put weakness back into stock markets.

    For trades, I will be looking at the USD/CHF (given the extreme moves already seen in the USD/JPY). At the moment, the levels to watch come in at 0.9380 and 0.9560 but these levels will likely need to be revised into the number (especially to the downside).

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  2. #2
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    The unemployment rate will be an important metric as well. Consensus is for the number to remain steady or even to tick up by a tenth. Economists are expecting the labor pool to increase due to people coming back into the workforce so even if jobs creation is strong the unemployment rate could increase.

  3. #3
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Jobs jobs jobs jobs jobsjobsjobsjobsjobsjobs....I'm tingly with exitement. What's your numbers Richard? I'm guessing 178,000 on NFP and 7.8% unemployment.

  4. #4
    Specialist Member marvel's Avatar
    Hi guys! The most important US data release for the month – NFP is only 40 minutes ahead! I hope all of you are in front of the screens and ready for the big volatility which will be here in no time

  5. #5
    Senior Member linda_fx's Avatar
    Of course we are here! I think if the actual number is much less than 200k we will see fast drop in EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs. If the number is close to expectations we could see upside momentum but not as strong as the yesterday one! I will wait till the situation is clear and then will trade accordingly one hour options.

  6. #6
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    Jobs jobs jobs jobs jobsjobsjobsjobsjobsjobs....I'm tingly with exitement. What's your numbers Richard? I'm guessing 178,000 on NFP and 7.8% unemployment.
    I don't even try to guess the data itself. Most of the evidence suggests a negative surprise and there a good possibility the previous numbers will be revised lower.

  7. #7
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    The range in USD/CHF is still intact but prices are dangerously close to the lower end (0.9380). This leaves trades vulnerable to whipsaws, and this could easily occur if we see revisions to the previous numbers. More prudent to move PUT entries down 20 ticks to account for potential false volatility. Worse entry point, but more protection against unpredictable moves.

  8. #8
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by linda_fx View Post
    Of course we are here! I think if the actual number is much less than 200k we will see fast drop in EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs. If the number is close to expectations we could see upside momentum but not as strong as the yesterday one! I will wait till the situation is clear and then will trade accordingly one hour options.
    Trading the EUR/USD in events like these can be tricky, as markets often have a knee-jerk Dollar reaction that reverses later. For example, if the number is positive, markets will likely buy the USD and then sell it later as traders start to look past safe haven assets.

  9. #9
    Specialist Member marvel's Avatar
    5 minutes till NFP data! USD/CHF I am prepared to trade it according to the data!

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  10. #10
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    88K jobs, much lower than expected

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