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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Hot Tip from the Geek - SP500, DAX, EUR/USD Weekly Expire - 01-08/04/2013 !!!

    Hi guys,

    The New Top Five Tips of the week from Michael are here!
    This week we will have a lot of important data – ECB press conference on Thursday and NFP on Friday. Check Michael tips and find out the best trades for the week!

    Originally posted by Michael Hodges.

    S&P 500 To Make A New High

    S&P 500
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1460
    Expiration = end of the week

    The S&P made a new all time high last week and looks like it is going higher. The only hurdle I see for this week is the state of the U.S. economy. The economic reports this morning were a mixed bag but both still support a growing, strengthening economy. Today, Monday, we got new construction spending and ISM figures. Construction spending was a pleasantly surprising +1.2%. This is ahead of expectations and in line with the current idea of a construction/housing led recovery. The ISM reading for March was 51.3, less than anticipated but still firmly above 50 and expansionary.

    This weeks data, unless there is some underlying negative I have not considered, should remain in-line with recent trends. Unemployment claims should be under 250,000, ADP and NFP should be above 200,000 and unemployment should remain steady at 7.7%. World events and policy may change the long term outlook on some trades but the near-term S&P trades will be dominated by domestic reports. The index dropped this morning after the “disappointing” ISM number but held above 1560. There is a chance for some downside early in the week as we await these important releases but I am expecting the week to be a net positive. Downside support exists around 1550 with resistance at the all-time intraday high near 1572. I am trading call on the S&P with a target entry below 1560 and an end of the week expiration.

    Germany Rebounding?

    DAX
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 8000
    Expiration = end of week

    Germany is still expected to have rebounded last quarter. The data supports it and strength in the U.S. and now in China help with that view. Germany is an export economy so any improvements in its two biggest trading partners will surely be seen here is as well. The caveat is that the data may be mixed. During a stabilization when one area expands another contracts. The data will be important on a net basis, individual reports may serve as entry points. Another bonus for the DAX right now is Cyprus. The fear driven sell-off last month has brought the DAX down to long term support and a great place to get into calls. Now that Cyprus is more or less water under the bridge the true economic fundamentals of Germany and the EU can take over. Wednesday’s ECB meeting and rate decision could be a big turning point for this index. I am trading calls on the DAX with a target entry below 8,000 and an end of the week expiration.

    Euro Support May Be At Hand


    EUR/USD
    Call/Put = put
    Entry = above 1.2830
    Expiration = end of the week

    Expiration = end of the weeThere is a lot of reason to expect some volatility in the Euro this week. The ECB meeting, the BOJ meeting and U.S. economic data will all play their parts. The ECB meeting will be the real important event of the week for the euro and could provide support for the pair long term. In the short term I see the pair moving lower to the next support before making any bullish move. U.S. strength and lingering fear of an EU economic collapse will keep pressure on this pair. I am trading the EUR/USD with a put, targeting an entry above 1.2830 and an end of the week expiration. The pair is currently just below the resistance of 1.2880 and indicated down. Next support exists around 1.2750.

  2. #2
    M.J
    M.J is offline
    Veteran Member M.J's Avatar
    Bad U.S data is weakening u.s against its rivals. I am also hopping for a bearish eur/usd for weekly expiry. Technically, no worries, but fundamentally usd is not getting any support.

  3. #3
    Specialist Member LesterK's Avatar
    Technically probably there are some signs of support but as M.J sais it is difficult to be sure about support zone when so many important data is heading for this week. I also think that the bearish scenario is also possible. The US stock market is way overpriced and if it drop all the risky assets will eventually follow next!

  4. #4
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    I think its the fundamentals that may be changing. The U.S. is steady enough for talk of qe ending is on the table. Europe is a big maybe, maybe they need more maybe they don't. China is about to start tightening because of rising inflation and Japan is about to start aggressive easing or so we think. Lots of possible changes. I really wonder what is going to happen between now and the morning (eastern time for me gmt-5).

  5. #5
    Specialist Member runneroption's Avatar
    Hi Michael,

    You were absolutely right about the Yen rebound and I just feel so stupid to not follow your idea. After the Japan Overnight Call rate the USD/JPY explode with almost 250 pips and I missed it..

  6. #6
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by runneroption View Post
    Hi Michael,

    You were absolutely right about the Yen rebound and I just feel so stupid to not follow your idea. After the Japan Overnight Call rate the USD/JPY explode with almost 250 pips and I missed it..
    it was pretty amazing, one of those rare things you see in the market. My binary trade was great and so was my forex....last I checked it was still heading north and was above the 96 handle.

  7. #7
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    I just want to let everyone know that there is a mistake on my tips, the target for the SPX trade is 1560 not 1460. That would be one hell of a pullback otherwise.

  8. #8
    Veteran Member Ammeo's Avatar
    Many of the top Analysts who regularly analyze German Economy and DAX saying DAX may take downward plunge in the upcoming months predicting values in the zone of 7200-7700 in the next 4-5 months, the overall sentiment is around 40%-42% bullish and 55%-60% bearish...Long term bulls should be careful to trust it at the moment..

  9. #9
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    I still think there is some life in the bull, if only enough for one last push...however, there are growing cracks in the EU recovery and Germany is going to suffer the worst if they can't get it together soon.

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