Big Trading Opportunity Thursday 28/2 - Sell USD/JPY!
US GDP to Guide Dollar Sentiment
US GDP figures are scheduled for release on 3/28 at 12:30 GMT, and are expected to show a rise of 0.5% on an annual basis. This would be a modest improvement from the 0.1% seen in the previous quarter. Less than stellar numbers expected, and if we see a negative surprise, I will be looking to sell into the latest rally in the USD/JPY. Levels to watch can be found at 94.60 to the upside and 94.15 to the downside. Markets have enhanced potential for volatility, so these numbers might need to be revised into the number. Longer term, we are coming into some interesting Fib resistance, so I would rather see prices break to the downside, as this should set up better trading opportunities.
U.S. GDP will surely be a mover for the markets, I think however that last years final GDP won't be as important as the first estimates for Q1 2013. I am still looking for the Abe/Kuroda team to be driving the usd/jpy. They haven't even begun the aggressive easing they keep talking about, that should move the usd/jpy higher ...in my opinion. The next BOJ meeting is in about 2-3 weeks if I am not mistaken, that should prove to be a real big turning point for this pair. The pair is certainly in a consolidation....
This announcement will have great impact, especially if there is a change from the expectations on Q1 2013 value, as Michael suggest. I am still not sure which market will be the best to trade, the USD/JPY or the US stock market or Gold for example could also be a good opportunity. I am expecting big volatility which will give some good trading opportunities tomorrow!