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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Hot New Tips by Richard - EUR/GBP, AUD/JPY Weekly Expiry 18-25/03/13 !!!

    Richard's weekly market outlook is here!

    The new week started with panic in euro markets after the release of the news that shocking taxation on all Cyprus deposits is highly possible for that country in order to receive a bailout package. Latter the situation was calming down. This week we will see several important economic data releases and trading opportunities will surely happen. Check Richard’s tips and find what is heading for!

    Originally posted by R.Cox.

    Looking ahead to next week, most of the market’s attention and discussion is likely to center on the monetary policy meeting from the US Federal Reserve, which will come later in the US session on Wednesday. No change in rates is expected but the accompanying policy statement will likely be the main driver of directional sentiment for the later part of the week. This makes it risky to establish weekly trades in the S&P 500 early in the week but from a technical perspective, the recent stalling at the all-time highs at 1565 does suggest that there is clear risk to the downside unless we see some supportive comments after the FOMC rate decision.
    In other areas, we will have some economic data from the Eurozone to watch, with the German and Eurozone ZEW surveys to be released on Tuesday, and the German IFO numbers on scheduled for Friday. This data (along with the increased discussions surrounding a bailout package for Cyprus) suggest that the EUR/USD could be a big mover this week, and for the daily trade ideas this information might be used as the basis for levels trades if we see some updated technical setups. Early in the week, we are likely to see some position squaring (an S&P negative) as traders look to prepare for the Federal Reserve policy statement. Any suggestion that current stimulus programs will have a solid date will be bearish for stocks and high yielding currencies.


    1. The EUR/GBP continues to trade at elevated levels but the technical structure will start to look top heavy if we see a break below 0.86. If this support zone is removed, weekly PUTS in the EUR/GBP will be taken at 0.8620 on a short term corrective retrace, expecting a drop into the low 0.85s. Conversely, PUTS can be taken on an approach back to 0.8675, in anticipation of the downside test at 0.86.

    2. The midweek FOMC meeting makes weekly trades in the S&P 500 unnecessarily risky, so we will look instead at the AUD/JPY, which has a high correlation with the stop market but might not be exposed to the same downside shocks if stock markets start to correct to the downside. Weekly CALLS in the AUD/JPY can be taken at 98.60, which is a historical double bottom and unlikely to be breached on first attempt.

  2. #2
    Senior Member Deanfx's Avatar
    Richard you are much more cautious than Michael in your trading suggestions. You bet on USD neutral trades in crosses – EUR/GBP and AUD/JPY. The first one has really big potential, but the second one depends on many factors and I think it is not so certain as the first one.

  3. #3
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    No reason to get into Dollar trades early in the week with the FOMC results still unknown.

    The EUR/GBP gapped lower to start the week, so I am moving down my sell entry to 0.8595. Fib resistance into 0.8620 should still contain prices if we do manage to get back above the breakdown point.

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  4. #4
    Solid Member Peter Green's Avatar
    Yes.. Unfortunately this week started with such a strong gap and the EUR/GBP trade is not possible now. I think if we see 0.8595 level again there will be great chances EUR will break higher and that’s why I think now it is better to search for other bargains and leave this pair for a while.

  5. #5
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Green View Post
    Yes.. Unfortunately this week started with such a strong gap and the EUR/GBP trade is not possible now. I think if we see 0.8595 level again there will be great chances EUR will break higher and that’s why I think now it is better to search for other bargains and leave this pair for a while.
    The expected move to the downside has already been seen. If we were to see another rally, we would need another analysis. This is how the game works, you have to be strict in your entry levels in order to get the best price. Sometimes that means missing trades but the upside is that you encounter fewer losing trades when you obey your rules rather than chasing the markets.

    Right idea, wrong entry point.

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    Last edited by RCox; 03-19-2013 at 09:12 PM.

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