So far this year, trades in the EUR/CHF have been like taking money from the ATM and for the next potential setups in the pair I am watching two key levels: 1.2280 to the downside, and 1.2390 to the topside. 1.2390 is a historical double top and 61.8% Fib retracement of the decline from this year's highs at 1.2565, so we will need to see an upside break here in order to generate new bullish momentum. If 1.2280 trades first, however, I will look to use this area for CALLS as well, as this is where the 38.2% Fib retracement of the rally from 1.2115 meets the confluence of 100/200 period EMAs on the 4-hour charts. Volatility is slowing, but the levels will still be valid into next week if we do not see any decisive movements near term.
You are saying that Euro weakness in other markets would create bullish momentum in EUR/CHF???
No, Richard. My point was exactely oposite. Until we have weak euro we will not see new upside move in the EUR/CHF. Now the EUR is weak against the US dollar and this will also lead to weak euro against the Swiss frank. Only after we see a reasonably strong movement in EUR/USD we could search for a breakout to new highs in EUR/CHF. That was my idea.