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  1. #1
    Legendry Member willyw's Avatar

    USD/JPY Weekly by Willy - Moved !!!

    Hi guys, I have started a new thread for techncial analysis for all the ccy pairs in one single thread. As such this thread will be closed.


    My new thread for my technical analysis is http://forums.binaryoptionsthatsuck....nical-Analysis




    USD/JPY WEEKLY as of Monday, 11 February, 2013
    A Weekly black body has formed (because prices closed lower than they opened).
    For the past 10 Weekly candlestick bars as of 08/02/13, there are 8 white candles versus 2 black candles with a net of 6 white candles.
    For the past 50 Weekly candlestick bars as of 08/02/13, there are 27 white candles versus 23 black candles with a net of 4 white candles.
    A Weekly spinning top has formed (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action as defined by the difference between the open and the close. During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
    US Dollar / Japanese Yen closed below the upper Bollinger Band by 5.1%. Bollinger Bands are 168.42% wider than normal. The large width of the Bollinger Bands suggest high volatility as compared to US Dollar / Japanese Yen's normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility decreasing and prices entering a trading range has increased for the near-term.
    Fibonacci Levels
    Prices have turned up 21 period(s) ago from the Weekly trough at 77.3930. Almost reaching its 261.8% Fibonacci retracment level at 95.12. Its estimated time projection of 27 weeks is getting closer.
    Buying USD/JPY should be cautious.
    Short-term trading: Sell on rally with short-term(intraday) objective at 92.07 and stop loss at 94.32
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails jpy-candle-w.jpg  

  2. #2
    Specialist Member marvel's Avatar
    Great thread willyw! But I don't agree with your bearish expectations on the USD/JPY pair. As you mentioned earlier the Japanese New Year will cause decreased liquidity on the Yen market and we could see some unexpected movements. Now we see that a strong rally already is in play and I think it will continue at least till the Bank of Japan conference on Thursday.

    After that we could see some kind of correction but we are still in the middle of the bullish trend in my view. So I will enter a daily call for tomorrow to see am I right

  3. #3
    Legendry Member willyw's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by marvel View Post
    Great thread willyw! But I don't agree with your bearish expectations on the USD/JPY pair. As you mentioned earlier the Japanese New Year will cause decreased liquidity on the Yen market and we could see some unexpected movements. Now we see that a strong rally already is in play and I think it will continue at least till the Bank of Japan conference on Thursday.

    After that we could see some kind of correction but we are still in the middle of the bullish trend in my view. So I will enter a daily call for tomorrow to see am I right
    Marvel, yes the unexpected move came early a day before the Lunar New eve as this New Year eve falls on a saturday this year. Yes, USD/Jpy reach 261.8% which is a crucial level to watch out that is why I mention buying should be cautious in case if USD/Jpy retracement but if it penetrate the trend continues which it does.
    I am always careful and cautious when market reaches crucial key levels which many traders overlook. Neglecting key level could result in heavy losses if market is unfavourable.

  4. #4
    Legendry Member willyw's Avatar
    USD/JPY WEEKLY as of Monday, 18 February, 2013
    US Dollar / Japanese Yen broke above the down trendline at 83.51, 9 week(s) ago. This is a bullish sign. This down trendline, currently with an ending point at 82.85, may now provide downside support. Prices have risen some distance since breaking out--10.69%, thereby adding more validity to the breakout.
    USD/JPY have turned up 17 period(s) ago from the Daily trough at 88.0560. 23.6%: 88.5577
    Buying USD/JPY projected target is 97.0617
    Long USD/JPY today for intraday trade; target at 94.1470 and stop loss at 91.5730

  5. #5
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    I've already placed a monthly call on this pair and I got in at 93.453 which I feel is a good level indeed. Michael Hodges take on the devaluation of the Yen made a lot of sense.

  6. #6
    Legendry Member willyw's Avatar
    AUD/JPY DAILY as of Wednesday, 20 February, 2013
    A Daily white body has formed (because prices closed higher than they opened).
    For the past 10 Daily candlestick bars as of 19/02/13, there are 5 white candles versus 5 black candles.
    For the past 50 Daily candlestick bars as of 19/02/13, there are 29 white candles versus 21 black candles with a net of 8 white candles.
    A Daily long lower shadow has formed. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).A Daily spinning top has formed (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action as defined by the difference between the open and the close. During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.Three Daily white candles has formed during the last three Daily bars. Although these candles were not big enough to create three Daily white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
    The current market condition for Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen is Very Bullish
    Can consider buying AUD/JPY
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails audjpy-candle-d.jpg  

  7. #7
    Senior Member Deanfx's Avatar
    What do you think about this pair USD/JPY? Will go up or the trend is already finished?

  8. #8
    Legendry Member willyw's Avatar
    USD/JPY WEEKLY as of Tuesday, 26 February, 2013
    A Weekly big black candle has formed. This is a bearish candle as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are "high," it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trend line, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
    For the past 10 Weekly candlestick bars as of 25/02/13, there are 7 white candles versus 3 black candles with a net of 4 white candles.
    For the past 50 Weekly candlestick bars as of 25/02/13, there are 25 white candles versus 25 black candles.
    The present wave patterns are:
    fast amplitude (8%): bullish wave C
    moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 1
    US Dollar / Japanese Yen is long term Bullish as the 144 days moving average of 84.02 is increasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 78.15 in the overbought territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 91.84 in the overbought territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at 7.86, in positive territory; this is a bullish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 66.67. This value is in the neutral territory.
    Following the major trend to long USD/JPY
    Fibonacci targets.
    TARGET 1: 93.5369 (Target Already Reached)
    TARGET 2: 94.3490 (Fibonacci Extension)
    TARGET 3: 95.6629 (FibonacciExtension)
    TARGET 4: 96.475 (Fibonacci Expansion)
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails jpy-candle-w.jpg   jpy-wave-w.jpg  

  9. #9
    Legendry Member willyw's Avatar

    Usd/jpy weekly !!!

    USD/JPY WEEKLY as of Monday, 11 March, 2013
    A Weekly big white candle has formed. This is a bullish candle as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are "low," it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off a support area (e.g., a moving average, trend line, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
    For the past 10 Weekly candlestick bars as of 08/03/13, there are 7 white candles versus 3 black candles with a net of 4 white candles.
    For the past 50 Weekly candlestick bars as of 08/03/13, there are 26 white candles versus 24 black candles with a net of 2 white candles.
    A Weekly engulfing bullish line has formed (where a white candle's real body completely contains the previous black candle's real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.
    If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with US Dollar / Japanese Yen), it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle's real body.

    USD/JPY DAILY as of Monday, 11 March, 2013
    A Daily white body has formed (because prices closed higher than they opened).
    For the past 10 Daily candlestick bars as of 08/03/13, there are 6 white candles versus 4 black candles with a net of 2 white candles.
    For the past 50 Daily candlestick bars as of 08/03/13, there are 27 white candles versus 23 black candles with a net of 4 white candles.
    Three Daily white candles has formed during the last three Daily bars. Although these candles were not big enough to create three Daily white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails jpy-candle-d.jpg   jpy-candle-w.jpg  

  10. #10
    Legendry Member willyw's Avatar
    USD/JPY WEEKLY as of Monday, 18 March, 2013
    The present wave patterns are:
    fast amplitude (8%): bullish wave C
    moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 1
    US Dollar / Japanese Yen is long term Bullish as the 144 days moving average of 84.36 is increasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 84.70 in the overbought territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 92.80 in the overbought territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at 8.51, in positive territory; this is a bullish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 64.99. This value is in the neutral territory.
    The close is currently
    ABOVE its 200 weekly moving average
    ABOVE its 90 weekly moving average
    ABOVE its 30 weekly moving average
    The current market condition for US Dollar / Japanese Yen is Very Bullish
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails jpy-wave-w.jpg  

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