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  1. #1
    Rookie Member

    Exclamation Global Market Crash - Is it Possible? !!!

    I like the Mark Faber gloom boom doom style of market commenting and post here one of his last interviews He is a big fan of all market crashes and predicted successfully a lot of them. Do you think he is right now and we will see 20% lower levels in US Stock markets this year?

    http://youtu.be/pl1MOMCNeNA

  2. #2
    Specialist Member marvel's Avatar
    I don't think so greatwall My respect to your guru Mark Faber but as he always talk we are heading toward collapse and yes sometimes it happens, but most of the times not at all. This year we could se some corrections even 20% but that will be all we will see and the trend will continue up, especially as we have money printing continuously without even decreasing its rate. The big issue will be inflation and also some local bubbles in some developing markets which rise more than a hundred percentages last year. All big stock market will not crash for sure!

  3. #3
    Veteran Member Ammeo's Avatar
    Market is standing now where it was 4/5 years ago (during the 2008 market crash), but time has changed a bit - What could be called over-hyped market 5 years ago is currently a stable one as the inflation undervalues the market values and indexes overtime....there could be a correction but not a market crash.

  4. #4
    Solid Member Peter Green's Avatar
    Totally agree Ammeo the world has changed a lot during last 5 years, but it is still vulnerable to bubble formation. It is not heading now for a big one, but a small bubble could burst again and if it not happen now it will happen in the future with bigger strength, so I also agree with this guy Faber. It will happen again and again the story doesn’t change all the times.

  5. #5
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    I see the market as approaching the top of a secular bear market range. This is coincident with the S&P highs we saw just before the 2008 market crash. The markets are still trending up but momentum is waning. Plus, the global economy is being propped up by central bankers and fiscal policy. This can not go on forever and last weeks FOMC minutes are not the first hints that we could see some hawkish behavior from them or other cb's in the near to mid term future. Once the bankers indicate an unwinding of policy I think the economy, and the markets, will contract. This probably wont be huge, there is strength in the global economy, but it will show us the true value of the global markets (without policy, debt purchases or money printing to hold it up I mean). The US spending sequester deadline next week, in my opinion at this time, will be taken much like the fiscal cliff was at the end of last year and only be a hiccup on the way to the S&P reaching new highs. However, once those highs are met I see considerable downside risks in the market which could take us down to the bottom of the next cyclical bull market. I don't think we are going to break out into a new secular bull at this time. . .

  6. #6
    Veteran Member uj.forex's Avatar
    my personal point of view is that the US markets are taken as highly-active, well-performing, and stable... which proves to be wrong sometimes... it's because many people just see the figures but not actual reality of whats going on in the country's economy... and as a result, the bubble keeps on getting big until it bursts...

  7. #7
    Legendry Member willyw's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Ammeo View Post
    Market is standing now where it was 4/5 years ago (during the 2008 market crash), but time has changed a bit - What could be called over-hyped market 5 years ago is currently a stable one as the inflation undervalues the market values and indexes overtime....there could be a correction but not a market crash.
    Market bubbles always coincide with economy, fundamentals and other major factors. Market crash or technically major market corrections ususlly happens in big cycle. If we look back at historical charts for the Dow Jones and S&P 500 we are able to see from the charts how it happens. Major corrections occurs in cycles of 5 years. If we look back at historical charts for the Dow Jones and S&P 500 we are able to see from the charts how it happens. These cycles itself have big cycles and small cycles. When market is in uncharted areas and the bubbles might burst at time, we have to be careful and all indicators should be overbought, at this time both technical and fundamental analyst will be monitoring news and economy very closely for the bubble to burst. I experience the market bubble in OCt 1989, where many clients receive margin calls and the account been wiped off. After the crash market regains for a week then cam a 2nd crash. The most affected are clients trading in the Hong Kong market, as the Hong Kong exchnage suspend trading for 1 week for the market to cool off. During the 1 week, world market regain some losses and Hong Kong clients were not able to do so, when Hong Kong resumes trading after 1 week, market crash again an Hong kong clients suffer great losses.

  8. #8
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    I see the market as approaching the top of a secular bear market range. This is coincident with the S&P highs we saw just before the 2008 market crash. The markets are still trending up but momentum is waning. Plus, the global economy is being propped up by central bankers and fiscal policy. This can not go on forever and last weeks FOMC minutes are not the first hints that we could see some hawkish behavior from them or other cb's in the near to mid term future. Once the bankers indicate an unwinding of policy I think the economy, and the markets, will contract. This probably wont be huge, there is strength in the global economy, but it will show us the true value of the global markets (without policy, debt purchases or money printing to hold it up I mean). The US spending sequester deadline next week, in my opinion at this time, will be taken much like the fiscal cliff was at the end of last year and only be a hiccup on the way to the S&P reaching new highs. However, once those highs are met I see considerable downside risks in the market which could take us down to the bottom of the next cyclical bull market. I don't think we are going to break out into a new secular bull at this time. . .
    Great analysis as always Michael! It's definitely been a hard time for bulls even though the S&P rose just over 0.50% this week. The problem is that the major indices worldwide have declined. The DAX is down 2.27%; FTSE 100 shed 1.34% and the Nikkei fell 2.25%.

  9. #9
    Specialist Member marvel's Avatar
    Also like the Michael’s comment. There are times for bull markets and times for bear markets. When the market goes straight forward up for a considerably long period of time it will retrace for sure and the longer the bull market the bigger the retracement. As we have a strong bull market last several months I am starting to look for its end. It could happen latter this year but will happen for sure.

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