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  1. #1
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar

    Hot US Retail Sales to Influence Direction in USD/JPY !!!

    US Retail Sales to Influence Direction in USD/JPY

    Schedule: 02/13/2012: 13:30 GMT

    Markets are expecting US Retail Sales to show a sharp slowdown from the previous month and come in at 0.1% (from 0.5% previously). This is essentially a flat number, so this could drag down risk sentiment and put some selling pressure on stocks and high yielding currencies. For short term trades, choosing an asset can be tricky because it is not clear if markets will view the Dollar in terms of its role as a safe haven asset or more directly related to the data. A positive number will help the S&P 500 and weigh on the Yen and since the number comes out before stock markets open, more volatility will probably be seen in the USD/JPY. If we see a positive number, hourly CALL options can be taken if prices move above 93.90. If we see a negative number, watch for a break of 93.30 to enter into hourly PUT options.

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  2. #2
    Senior Member Deanfx's Avatar
    We have a one and a half hour to the news release. Thanks for this preliminary analysis Richard! The USD/JPY looks pretty stable for the moment but as we saw yesterday it could be very vulnerable to some downside movements. I don’t know what will be the exact number, but as the expectations are for bad retail sales than previous month I will bet on dollar depreciation relative to the yen.

  3. #3
    Junior Member
    Quote Originally Posted by RCox View Post
    US Retail Sales to Influence Direction in USD/JPY

    Schedule: 02/13/2012: 13:30 GMT

    Markets are expecting US Retail Sales to show a sharp slowdown from the previous month and come in at 0.1% (from 0.5% previously). This is essentially a flat number, so this could drag down risk sentiment and put some selling pressure on stocks and high yielding currencies. For short term trades, choosing an asset can be tricky because it is not clear if markets will view the Dollar in terms of its role as a safe haven asset or more directly related to the data. A positive number will help the S&P 500 and weigh on the Yen and since the number comes out before stock markets open, more volatility will probably be seen in the USD/JPY. If we see a positive number, hourly CALL options can be taken if prices move above 93.90. If we see a negative number, watch for a break of 93.30 to enter into hourly PUT options.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    How can we know at live the news? I open forex factory calendar but I don't know if they put the news just after some minutes/hours of news been released...
    Last edited by esiconsum; 02-13-2013 at 12:07 PM.

  4. #4
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by esiconsum View Post
    How can we know at live the news? I open forex factory calendar but I don't know if they put the news just after sometime of news been released...
    Its not a bad idea to just watch your charts as the number is released, you should have a pretty good idea of whether the result was positive or negative. Price volatility has increased in the last hour and the USD/JPY bounced nicely off of the 93.30 support level (confirming this as the critical area). A downside break here looks good for PUTS. To the topside, we can move the level down to 93.60 for CALL options.

  5. #5
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    there could be a surprise in the retail sales figure. there has been some surprising strength in the retail sector of late. Most of those who report monthly sales figures, and I know it is a small percentage of the sector, beat January expectations by wide margins. Also, the XLY is looking a little bullish. It is trading just under all time highs. A break above $51 on the XLY would be very bullish for the sector.

    The USD/Yen has been very volatile lately and comments coming out of Japan point to the possibility that stimulus is working too well. On a technical perspective I think there is serious potential for a yen correction. These two things together are more than enough reason to think that the yen will be volatile today as well. Thanks for the targets Richard....I think the lower one will be more important....I see a break below 93 taking the yen down to 90 on momentum selling.

    Esiconsum, use CNBC to get live releases of data. The website lags the tv report by a few minutes but it comes out pretty fast too.

  6. #6
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    NO surprise and it looks like the pair is moving downward.....

  7. #7
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    This is rarely the case but the number was exactly as expected and we are not seeing any volatility being generated here from the number. This lack of volatility is also coming from the fact that the number was 0.1%, which means there was no change from the volumes seen last month. No trade triggered, as there is no real surprise here to exploit.

  8. #8
    Solid Member
    There was no surprise and no real trade opportunity as the number was exactly as expected. There was some upside move in the precious metals but I think it will also be a temporary effect.

  9. #9
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    Yen weakens to 99 Per Dollar for First Time Since May 2009

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