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Thread: MSFT Thread

  1. #1
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar

    Talking MSFT Thread !!!

    I've made some calls on XOM and FB, but here I want to share why I feel that a put with an end of the month expiration is appropriate for MSFT.

    Technically Speaking
    Click image for larger version. 

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    Source: DailyFinance

    The price action had been stagnant over the course of the last 10 years, but in 2012 it is a steady decline reflecting the lack of innovation and and products like Windows 8 that haven't been the blockbusters the company thought they would be.

    I always give an objective analysis and so I wanted to mention something that the MSFT bulls like to talk about. The cash pile stands at $9.6B, thereby making it easy to meet the impressive dividend yield of 3.35%.

    Nonetheless, the stock is in for some tough times ahead in the near term with the recent earnings release narrowly beating earnings expectations. And everyone is on AAPL's case after it handsomely beat analyst expectations in the last quarter.

    EPS growth has been negative and this does not bode well even though the P/E suggests the software titan is undervalued.

  2. #2
    Solid Member
    I don’t agree with you vinayakm that 2012 is a decline year for Microsoft. The Windows 7 is really great product and Windows 8 is opening the frontiers for mobile phones, tablets and other portative usage of windows. The company valuation is really steady during the last ten years but that’s not because it is getting worse but because its initial valuation in the early 2000s was too inflated. I expect future price upside movement in the next few years and will not short sell this great company in no cases

  3. #3
    Master Member Bogdan G's Avatar
    Maybe it's better to just trade what we see...

  4. #4
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Rosen33 View Post
    I don’t agree with you vinayakm that 2012 is a decline year for Microsoft. The Windows 7 is really great product and Windows 8 is opening the frontiers for mobile phones, tablets and other portative usage of windows. The company valuation is really steady during the last ten years but that’s not because it is getting worse but because its initial valuation in the early 2000s was too inflated. I expect future price upside movement in the next few years and will not short sell this great company in no cases
    You have a pretty interesting and variant point there Rosen33. Thanks a lot for sharing that on this thread!

  5. #5
    Solid Member
    Quote Originally Posted by vinayakm View Post
    You have a pretty interesting and variant point there Rosen33. Thanks a lot for sharing that on this thread!
    Thanks for your reply vinayakm. I think that there will be really a great future for the software industry and as a leader in that industry Microsoft will benefit also, that’s why I will search for call opportunities in that company.

  6. #6
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Rosen33 View Post
    Thanks for your reply vinayakm. I think that there will be really a great future for the software industry and as a leader in that industry Microsoft will benefit also, that’s why I will search for call opportunities in that company.
    But still you have to remember that these are binary options that we are talking about and we are very short-sighted on the BOTS forum in order to make money!

  7. #7
    Veteran Member Ammeo's Avatar
    32 is the near term target by the analysts as the stock is still under valued even after gaining some upward momentum in the last few days...maybe we'll see the 28.00 mark next week...

  8. #8
    Veteran Member Ammeo's Avatar
    YTD stats are good enough for the Bulls..

    Growth & Valuation

    Earnings growth (last year)
    -25.65%
    Earnings growth (this year)
    +2.73%
    Earnings growth (next 5 years)
    +10.00%
    Revenue growth (last year)
    +5.37%
    P/E ratio
    14.8
    Price/Sales
    3.49
    Price/Book
    3.48

  9. #9
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Ammeo View Post
    YTD stats are good enough for the Bulls..

    Growth & Valuation

    Earnings growth (last year)
    -25.65%
    Earnings growth (this year)
    +2.73%
    Earnings growth (next 5 years)
    +10.00%
    Revenue growth (last year)
    +5.37%
    P/E ratio
    14.8
    Price/Sales
    3.49
    Price/Book
    3.48
    Nice to see! But I am basing the puts on technical analysis and its plain to see:

    Click image for larger version. 

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ID:	116
    Source: DailyFinance

    You can see the MACD line dropping below the signal line and MSFT bears will be pleased with this.

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