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  1. #1
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar

    Australian Jobs Figures to Have RBA Hangover Effect on AUD/USD !!!

    Australian Jobs Figures to Have RBA Hangover Effect on AUD/USD

    A big week for the Australian Dollar continues with this month's employment figures. This data is normally pretty important for the AUD/USD but with the RBA's explicit mention of the labor market as a key driver for what will happen at the next interest rate meeting, this number will be more important than usual. At the moment, market expectations are weak, with only 6,000 expected for the month. This follows the loss of 5,500 that was seen last month and markets are also expecting an increase in the Unemployment Rate to 5.5%. These are very weak estimates, so it will be difficult to see a downside surprise in these figures. A strong number will give short term traders an opportunity to enter into hourly CALL options in the AUD/USD. If we see a negative number for the month, expect prices to see declines and traders can look for hourly PUT options in the AUD/USD.

  2. #2
    Junior Member allanrock's Avatar
    AUD looks oversold now and I am pretty bullish on it. The employment figure will be announced at 00:30 GMT on Thursday so it will be in the Asia session and could give some upside momentum if the number is better than expected. Do you think entering in a daily call before the announcement is a good idea?

  3. #3
    M.J
    M.J is offline
    Veteran Member M.J's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by allanrock View Post
    AUD looks oversold now and I am pretty bullish on it. The employment figure will be announced at 00:30 GMT on Thursday so it will be in the Asia session and could give some upside momentum if the number is better than expected. Do you think entering in a daily call before the announcement is a good idea?
    Yes it is indicating oversold but longterm trend is strongly bullish. As RCox said, fundamental support can make it bullish for short-term but no sign of bullish trend for longterm traders.
    At this time price is at 1.0313 and by looking at current condition, it will go down to support zone of 1.0240 to 1.0250.

  4. #4
    Junior Member nick_ross's Avatar

    !!!

    Hi guys! I will bye an hour call several minutes before the release. I think we will see tomorrow a good rally in the AUD/USD up to 1.0370. I am a big fan of my country currency but I think it is heavily overvalued now and in long term (few months or till the end of the year) it will correct south

  5. #5
    Specialist Member marvel's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by nick_ross View Post
    Hi guys! I will bye an hour call several minutes before the release. I think we will see tomorrow a good rally in the AUD/USD up to 1.0370. I am a big fan of my country currency but I think it is heavily overvalued now and in long term (few months or till the end of the year) it will correct south
    For the first thing I agree with you nick_ross but will not take any options, as it is too dangerous if the number comes worse than expected we could see big selloff. The longer perspective is still difficult to be seen, but I will stay bullish for the AUD independent of the predictions for a big retracement. The Australian economy is one of the best positioned in the today world and will benefit a lot from its commodity export oriented side in the next decade.

  6. #6
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    The New Zealand jobs number was just released and this showed a significant miss, coming in at -1% on a quarterly basis. New Zealand is a much smaller economy but there is some correlation between NZ and Aussie data, as the two countries are major trading partners.

  7. #7
    Legendry Member willyw's Avatar
    AUD/USD DAILY as of Thursday, 07 February, 2013
    Yesterday Australian Dollar / US Dollar closed below the lower Bollinger Band by 3.9%. Although prices have broken the lower Bollinger Band and a downside breakout is possible, the most likely the current trading range that Australian Dollar / US Dollar is in to continue to be bearish
    Target Price Projection**
    Having reached a Daily top 19 period(s) ago at 1.0597, prices are currently moving downwards.
    TARGET 1: 1.0454 (Moderate Retracement)
    TARGET 2: 1.0365 (Extension)
    TARGET 3: 1.0222 (Extension)
    Time Projection
    Time Projection is the number of period(s) projected the current trend retraces at vulnerable retracement levels.
    Est. Projected Time: 18 period(s) (Extension)
    Est. Projected Time: 22 period(s) (Expansion)
    Est. Projected Time: 29 period(s) (Expansion)
    Est. Projected Time: 40 period(s) (Expansion)
    Shorting AUDUSD with short term target at 1.0276 and placing stop loss at 1.0442
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails aud-bband-d.jpg  

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