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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Hot Tip from the Geek - SP500, Ibex, FTSE - Monthly Expire - 04-11/02/2013 !!!

    Hi guys,

    Michael presented his New Top 5 Tips for the week!
    His review shows the most prominent trades for this week. Check it out and find which are the best opportunities!

    Originally posted by Michael Hodges. For the whole article click here.

    S&P Retreats To Support

    S&P 500
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1500
    Expiration = end of the month

    The U.S. markets will not be heavily affected by the news from Europe. Corporate earnings and economic data at home and abroad are still looking good enough to support the rally. Not to mention the fact that the S&P is till lagging the other indexes and has yet to make a new all time high. While this is not a guarantee I think it is highly likely. This week the U.S. markets have little new economic data to digest, about 10 releases compared to last weeks 38, and nothing of real importance. The number one data point for this week in the U.S. will be the unemployment claims figures on Thursday.


    Spain, Spain, Spain

    Ibex
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 8100
    Expiration = weekly

    Spanish markets lead the charge downward today. Rumors of scandal in the Prime Ministers office and election fears are the cause. The drop is reactionary and has presented an opportunity for a short term trade. Another reason for the sell off today was a jump in unemployment. Spanish unemployment jumped by over 2.5% in January. This has raised speculation for renewed stimulus in the country. Spain, and the rest of the EU, are still rebuilding and these minor set backs are to be expected. Other data from the region supports a slight decline in the first quarter and a possible rate cut by the ECB. I am playing weekly calls on the Ibex with an entry under 8100. I had considered monthly calls but I do not want to hold a position over the election.



    England Falls On Spain And Factory Orders Data

    FTSE
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 6250
    Expiration = end of the month

    The FTSE 100 dropped this morning as well. New Factory Orders from the EU and the new developments in Spain both helped with the drop. The index is nearing the support of 6200, the level of the most recent breakout. I am playing calls on the FTSE with end of the month expiration.

  2. #2
    Junior Member
    Thanks Michael for your priceless tips!

  3. #3
    Active Member pipshunter's Avatar
    Hi, Michael! It looks you are heavily bullish on all the indexes around the world If you put your money on all those calls you will heavily risk your account because there is a substantial risk for a trend reversal. As we climb upper and upper the long positions increase gradually and we will reach a point where there will be no additional bulls to buy and the price will free fall for some time. I am afraid that this week there is a possibility to start such a process. Not totally sure but after the Monday price action it looks like that.

  4. #4
    Senior Member dorrian's Avatar
    How did you find there is a “substantial risk for trend reversal”? I am not an experienced trader but I know very well that when there is a well visible trend you shouldn’t trade against it in no circumstances!

  5. #5
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    The unemployment rate in Spain is a major issue and this will start to come up again when Spain asks for its next round of stimulus funding. The official comments suggest that Spain will not need additional stimulus but I don't think there are many in the investment community that take these comments seriously.

  6. #6
    Specialist Member LesterK's Avatar
    The Spain unemployment will always be a major factor in the investment world. It will affect greatly the markets and I don’t think there is something improved there. The situations will go worse in the next months.

  7. #7
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Martin Kay View Post
    Hi guys,

    Michael presented his New Top 5 Tips for the week!
    His review shows the most prominent trades for this week. Check it out and find which the best opportunities!
    \
    Thanks for reading, I hope they are useful for you.

  8. #8
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pipshunter View Post
    Hi, Michael! It looks you are heavily bullish on all the indexes around the world If you put your money on all those calls you will heavily risk your account because there is a substantial risk for a trend reversal. As we climb upper and upper the long positions increase gradually and we will reach a point where there will be no additional bulls to buy and the price will free fall for some time. I am afraid that this week there is a possibility to start such a process. Not totally sure but after the Monday price action it looks like that.
    I agree that there is danger of a market reversal. I think the S&P has at least another 60 points before we begin to see it though. Each trade I make is on the technicals as I read them. I have learned time and time again not to go against the TA.

    I am not completley bullish. I traded a put on China this week and got in just in time.

  9. #9
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by dorrian View Post
    How did you find there is a “substantial risk for trend reversal”? I am not an experienced trader but I know very well that when there is a well visible trend you shouldn’t trade against it in no circumstances!
    That is a very good rule and one that I follow. Except when there is overwhelming evidence to the contrary. There is a chance for reversal, in fact a probability in my opinion, but it has not happened yet. Until the trend is broken I have to trade with the trend for my system to work. Sometimes I get burned but in the end I come out on top. Check out my column on bots.com and see my trading history.

  10. #10
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by RCox View Post
    The unemployment rate in Spain is a major issue and this will start to come up again when Spain asks for its next round of stimulus funding. The official comments suggest that Spain will not need additional stimulus but I don't think there are many in the investment community that take these comments seriously.
    Richard you are so right. Spain is the black sheep of Europe at the moment. Greece may reemerge but they have to the end of the year before they need to ask for more money. It is time to start watching out for a possible top in European markets. negative surprises in this arena would be a big negative for world economic recovery.

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