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  1. #1
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar

    The Apple Thread !!!

    I know alot, if not all, of you out there are watching Apple, if not actually trading it. What do you think is going to happen and where do you think Apple is going. I think Apple is heading down to $400 now, Today it broke through support and the neck line of a head&shoulder reversal pattern. In the short term Apple does not have the support of investors or traders. I also think that in the long term Apple is still a great billion dollar making company with the ability to attract new customers and convert the users of other platforms.

  2. #2
    Active Member
    Yes, we all watched the Apple falling as sir Isaac Newton some centuries ago : ) The price broke the 500 line and it continue its way down. I am not sure why it happens, but for me after Steve Jobs passed away, the enigmatic person who makes the dream come through all of it will disappear in the sands. We know that the euphoria around Apple is fashion driven and in the IT business the fashion is the most temporary thing. The RIMM is typical example. Its shares fall down from 145$ in 2008 to just about 7$ last year. Even if the Apple is an icon in the IT world it is not secured from the same thing to happen.

  3. #3
    Senior Member Grae's Avatar
    Apple need a new innovation--and iPad mini hasn't done it, because they walked into Kindles Turf and Kindle Fire HD beat them.
    In the mean time, it may well get to 400$

  4. #4
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Grae View Post
    Apple need a new innovation--and iPad mini hasn't done it, because they walked into Kindles Turf and Kindle Fire HD beat them.
    In the mean time, it may well get to 400$
    I read an article about the iPhone 4 is a gateway product. Verizone said that more than half of all iPhone activations were for the 4. This is supposed to be good long term because those new four owners usually convert to buyers of later versions. They also said that conversions from other phones was on the rise. This should be good for the stock long term but for now.....they need a really good new product,

  5. #5
    Specialist Member runneroption's Avatar
    Apple was a big balloon and it burst. There will be a lot of other shares which will follow it in this year. I think that the apple products are unique by design and dominate the fashion trends but they are not unique in terms of real usability. There are so many competitors that it looks crazy that apple still hold its dominating position it the tech market. It won’t last forever.

  6. #6
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    Really was shocked with what happened with AAPL. I mean you have to admit that fundamentally the company is in fantastic shape. It sold 75M mobile devices in the last quarter for crying out loud. The problem is all investor see on the news and what they get their eyes on is about how the stock took a beating over the last couple of months or so. Instead they should feast their eyes on the $13.04B profit the tech giant made (that's like $1B a week in profits) and the cash pile of $137B that AAPL sits on. The free cash flow is particularly impressive and what AAPL has been doing with its hedge fund Braeburn Capital speaks volumes to the Cupertino, CA based firm's cash-generating ability.
    I did do a valuation of AAPL at work and the company actually is trading dirt cheap if you look at the P/E of 9.98 that is much lower than the average over the last four years of 17.2. Even the P/S and P/B ratios confirm that AAPL is remarkable undervalued as the stock continues to perplex me with its fall from grace.
    I know analysts are busy downgrading price targets and what not. But the fact of the matter is that there is a herd mentality among them. AAPL is still a "buy" and I put its 12-month price target in the low $700s.

  7. #7
    Veteran Member Ammeo's Avatar
    Apple Inc is now surrendering its status as the most valuable company to Exxon Mobil..

  8. #8
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Ammeo View Post
    Apple Inc is now surrendering its status as the most valuable company to Exxon Mobil..
    Its already done that Ammeo. I actually made money out of puts on AAPL and this was so disappointing to place puts on a stock that I otherwise love so much. The trouble is that after following the financial markets on Bloomberg, CNBC, Seeking Alpha, etc it appears that a lot of money managers and finance professionals don't seem to share the view.
    I am not exactly a contrarian investor when I trade binary options, so I just follow the market sentiment and execute trades even though it hurts to see such a great American company's stock price fall.

  9. #9
    Solid Member Peter Green's Avatar
    Yea, vinayakm it really hurts if you trade against your passion, but it hurts twice as much if you trade against the market sentiment. You are very good trader if you could stand on the opposite side of the trade of your favorite company when you anticipate where the real market is heading to!

  10. #10
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by runneroption View Post
    Apple was a big balloon and it burst. There will be a lot of other shares which will follow it in this year. I think that the apple products are unique by design and dominate the fashion trends but they are not unique in terms of real usability. There are so many competitors that it looks crazy that apple still hold its dominating position it the tech market. It won’t last forever.
    I have to disagree, the bubble did burst but I think the whole thing was knee jerk and overblow. Apple still has the best products, especially the iPhone. Other phones and other devices have some/most of the same features but no one has them all. This goes for teh iPad as well. Plus, Apple is a proven converter of other companies customers and recent data shows that the rate is increasing. I'd like to see some data on how many people left iPhone for something cheaper or diffferent and then switched back. I for one am a loyal iPhone user because the product is just good. Nothing else I've seen has come close to inspiring me to switch (I do not own Apple and am not trading it now, just FYI). The plan to use iPhone 4 as a gateway product is brilliant in the long term. Who doesn't want a free iPhone 4 (which is what I have and I freaking love it)? Once these people get their new free phones Apple has 2 years to deliver more products and upgrade customers to 4s's and 5's.

    I'm not saying that Apple is a buy here for the short term but you can't count them out of the game yet. Steve Jobs didn't put Tim Cook in charge for no reason.

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