Results 1 to 7 of 7
  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Tip from the Geek - APPL, SP500, EUR. Weekly and Monthly Expire - 21-28/1/2013 !!!

    Hi guys,
    Michael posted his Top Five Tips for this week! Check his interesting market insights and trading recommendations!

    Originally posted by Michael Hodges. For more tips ask on forum or click here.

    Apple

    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below $500
    Expiration = end of the month

    pple is reporting earnings this week and investors will be picking the report apart like never before. Evidence is mounting that the iPhone and iPad maker’s sales are slowing and that it is losing some market share to Galaxy and Android phones. A recent report that production of screens for iPads has ground to a near halt echo the sentiment began last September. Demand for iPhone 5 is not as strong as first expected and that has been impacting the stock price for the last 4-5 months. There really should not be a surprise here because we have been expecting that weakness for months.
    Technically, the stock is way oversold on a long term basis. The drop to $500 and below has brought the stock to long term resistance and the long term up trend line. Base on this I would be looking for a bounce of some sort. Short term, on the daily charts, the stock is also oversold and is also showing signs of a bottom. The release on Wednesday, which will really affect the stock going into Thursday, could be a turning point. Apple is definitely not as strong as it once was but it is also definitely still very strong. What other company earns $14 per share, quarter after quarter. Expectations are for this quarter are in the range of $13.50-$14, so long as Apple can match this range the long term trend should remain intact. I am trading a monthly call on Apple if I can get in under $500. I may also wait until Wednesday to get in, just to see what happens pre-earnings release.



    S&P 500 Marching To New Highs

    S&P 500
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1475
    Expiration = end of the month

    he S&P is marching on to new five year highs driven by a lack of worry and what I will call “OK” earnings. The lack of worry, as evidenced by the low low level of the VIX, coupled with a steadily improving world economy are also supporting the move. This weeks earnings season will be important for the near term trend but will likely just be a blip on the radar over the long term. The trend is definitely still up and unless the earnings are ridiculously bad this week they won’t change that.
    The index is currently above the long term support/resistance of 1475 and at a five year high. This level dates back to the Head&Shoulders Reversal from 2007-2008 and could provide some resistance. Five years is a long time to be losing money, now that the market is back folks may try to get out. I am still bullish on the market, at least in the short term, and will be looking to buy calls with monthly expiration. Because the market is a little extended and overbought I am expecting a little pull back early in the week and will target an entry below 1475.

    Yen Ready For Profit Taking
    USD/JPY
    Call/Put = Put
    Entry = above 90
    Expiration = end of the week

    The Japanese yen is in a long term downtrend versus the dollar, one that I believe may only be half over. It did not take long for the Yen to move to 90, in line with Shinzo Abe’s target, and long term technicals are strongly bullish (for the dollar). This week is another great place for Forex Traders to take profits which could help put pressure on this pair intra-week. I am playing put on this trade if I can get in over 90 but am only willing to give it a week because of my long term outlook.

  2. #2
    Solid Member Peter Green's Avatar
    APPL is really a great deal but the other tips looks more suspicious for me as they are more condition dependent. Neither SP500 nor EUR looks so sure for call entries. Yen is also in play and it couldn’t be sure we already toped there so I will wait to see what will happen, only APPL will play with medium size bet!

  3. #3
    Senior Member LeeChang's Avatar
    I will enter a monthly put on the yen above 89.5. I think this is a good medium term position. The S&P is not sure and the others are also too risky for me.

  4. #4
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeChang View Post
    I will enter a monthly put on the yen above 89.5. I think this is a good medium term position. The S&P is not sure and the others are also too risky for me.
    I still view the S&P as bullish. The USD yen trade is still bullish for me as well but I think it is in a consolidation zone. I think the upper range will be around 90 with the bottom of the range around 88.50.

  5. #5
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Apple got trashed overnight. As an entry for calls this levels is really really good, if you still think it could rebound. With the stock this low it could attract long term investors back into the trade. I am going to play some intraday calls on the stock, and maybe enter a monthly trade as well but I will do so with caution .... I hate to throw good money after bad.

  6. #6
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    AAPL made me a ton of money, but then I got too greedy after the success I had with some puts and it got me going on cloud 9. I went after more and more money and it cost me as I lost almost 90% of the profits that I made today!
    Again, it was a case of not going in at the right time which would have been just as trading got underway given that AAPL was down in after-hours trading. It took me sometime to realize that puts were the answer after analyzing the earnings report they put out. The trouble was I also needed to analyze how market participants and Wall Street was reacting.

  7. #7
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by vinayakm View Post
    AAPL made me a ton of money, but then I got too greedy after the success I had with some puts and it got me going on cloud 9. I went after more and more money and it cost me as I lost almost 90% of the profits that I made today!
    Again, it was a case of not going in at the right time which would have been just as trading got underway given that AAPL was down in after-hours trading. It took me sometime to realize that puts were the answer after analyzing the earnings report they put out. The trouble was I also needed to analyze how market participants and Wall Street was reacting.
    I think it is well known on the BOTS community that I have a love/hate relationship with apple. I love to trade it but I keep screwing it up. The market is too driven by news and emotion. I made a wee bit this morning on a test trade, entered again longer term and now it looks as though it may be a loser. Apple has definately entered a bear market, today it dropped below the neck line of its head and shoulders pattern and that should have been my signal for put buying. It just blows my mind, the company is still good, it is still making billions of dollars, it has just lost the attention of the retail investor and that is going to keep the pressure on.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
3