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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    New Tips by Richard - EUR/CHF, SP500. Weekly and Monthly Expiry 21-28/01/13 !!!

    Hi guys, Richard's presented his new weekly market analysis and trading tips. He has very interesting data for the Chinese GDP figures and also some tips for the upcoming week. Check them out!

    Originally posted by R.Cox. For the full trading briefing click here.

    Risk sentiment showed improvements last week with several different asset indicators reaching long term highs. In stocks, the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 are seen at 5-year highs, and this is being matched in carry trade activity with the Japanese Yen showing is longest period of weekly losses in more than 30 months. The USD/JPY is now trading at levels not seen since June of 2010 and this is a broader suggestion that market sentiment is bullish despite the relatively sluggish results that we have seen in recent macroeconomic releases.

    1. Last week’s call on the EUR/CHF was based on the previous central bank price floor enacted at 1.20 and the recent surges to the upside help to validate the market’s position in this area as well. This CHF weakness will translate into the USD/CHF as well, and if we see a drop back into 0.9290 I will enter into 1-week CALL options as the longer term trajectory should remain in positive territory.

    2. I will look to avoid long term stock plays with the large number of earnings releases scheduled next week but if the positive numbers continue, carry trades like the AUD/JPY are well-positioned for another run higher. This will be a longer term trade, with monthly CALL options taken at 94.20.

  2. #2
    Specialist Member marvel's Avatar
    Hi, RCox!

    Interesting outlook especially on the Chinese GDP change! I was also surprised how I could miss the AUD/JPY carry trade opportunity. It was huge and probably is still in play? I am not sure and will not take positions now because the risk of the opposite movement increases every day. The better way will be to wait for a deep correction and then enter a long-term call. The level I will feel comfortable to enter will be around 93.00.

  3. #3
    Active Member

    Question !!!

    What do you think Richard about the Chinese economy future and also about the possibility that the Yuan will become fully convertible currency in the next the two years? Do you think such a possibility exists?

  4. #4
    Active Member
    The USD/CHF pair has some potential, but for me CHF is not tradable now. It could again approach its barrier level as done several times before. The AUD/JPY is really good pick but also has a severe risk, so I will avoid this to trades Richard, in spite I respect very much your ideas.

  5. #5
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    This week's trade rec. is for the USD/CHF, the EUR/CHF was taken last week.

  6. #6
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Thomas01 View Post
    What do you think Richard about the Chinese economy future and also about the possibility that the Yuan will become fully convertible currency in the next the two years? Do you think such a possibility exists?
    Great question, I actually lived in China for 2 years and to be perfectly honest I do not see the longer term outlook as being particularly rosy. I think the main problems will come with the housing market (ie. a bursting housing bubble the likes of which the world has never seen before). We will also start to see 3-D printing take a huge bite out of cheap manufacturing in coming years. I think the Chinese government is mostly aware of this and I think they will look to maintain any edge they can - even if that means playing by unfair market rules (currency manipulation). They will look to control the exchange rate as long as they possibly can.

  7. #7
    Senior Member Deanfx's Avatar
    That's great Richard! We have now an insider in the sky empire who can give as an outlook what happen behind the Great Wall. I will come to China too some day. As you know one of the quantum fund investment gurus Jim Rogers is also a big China fan

  8. #8
    Legendry Member willyw's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by stovedude View Post
    The USD/CHF pair has some potential, but for me CHF is not tradable now. It could again approach its barrier level as done several times before. The AUD/JPY is really good pick but also has a severe risk, so I will avoid this to trades Richard, in spite I respect very much your ideas.
    AUD/JPY DAILY as of Tuesday, 22 January, 2013
    The RSI just crossed below 70 from a topping formation. This is a BEARISH sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a Sell 1 day Ago.
    Failure swings are penetrating or breaking out from support and resistance.
    The RSI has just reached its lowest value in the last 14 period(s). This is BEARISH signal.
    The RSI has set a new 14-period low while prices has not. This is a BEARISH DIVERGENCE.
    On 21/01/13, Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen closed below the upper Bollinger Band by 24.2%. Bollinger Bands are 113.69% wider than normal. The large width of the Bollinger Bands suggest high volatility as compared to Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen's normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility decreasing and prices entering (or remaining in) a trading range has increased for the near-term. The Bollinger bands have been in this wide range for 13 period(s). The probability of prices consolidating into a less volatile trading range increases the longer the Bollinger Bands remain in this wide range.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails audjpy-bb-d.jpg  

  9. #9
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    I've gone into a weekly call on the USD/CHF at the 0.9294 level. What do you guys think? I am pretty nervous. I don't want to lose $150!

  10. #10
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by vinayakm View Post
    I've gone into a weekly call on the USD/CHF at the 0.9294 level. What do you guys think? I am pretty nervous. I don't want to lose $150!
    I think if your nervous maybe you should reevaluate the trade. Or maybe next time trade a smaller amount of money if you are not 100% about a set up.

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