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  1. #1
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar

    Trading the NASDAQ after the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey !!!

    Trading the NASDAQ after the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey

    The last major macro release of the week will come with the Univ. of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey, which is expected to rise to 75 after the previous release came in at 72.9 The figure will me made available at 14:55 GMT and the time frame will be critical here in placing new options trades.

    Consumer confidence will give markets an indication of how strong retail spending actually was this holiday season and into the beginning of the new year (a traditionally slower time for corporate sales). With technical levels in the NASDAQ matching up better in the near term (compared to the S&P 500), we will look for trades in the tech index.

    1/18 - Trading Tip:

    The NASDAQ continues to trade close to its near term highs of 2750, and if the positive result does come into play, look to buy hourly CALL options once prices break above this area (2750). The positive expectations, however, could create a larger move to the downside if a negative result is seen (as this would do more to catch traders off-guard and force them to re-position). If the number is negative and prices break below 2710 in the index, look to enter into hourly PUT options.

    Note, however, that sometimes this figure fails to move markets immediately, and if either of these price levels does not give way within 10 minutes of the release, the trade recommendation becomes invalid, as it is clear the actual number was not enough to drive markets.

  2. #2
    Specialist Member marvel's Avatar
    Nice point Richard! I think there is great potential for an upside movement this evening, but we still have to wait to see the number. If it is not good weekly profit taking will immediately erase all the daily profits on the US indexes.

  3. #3
    Senior Member LeeChang's Avatar
    I will be pass for this evening. Friday is dangerous day to trade especially after such a week. It will be too complicated to predict the market direction, even after the news anounement.

  4. #4
    Active Member
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeChang View Post
    I will be pass for this evening. Friday is dangerous day to trade especially after such a week. It will be too complicated to predict the market direction, even after the news anounement.
    me too, I will not trade this evening and will prepare for the weekend

  5. #5
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar

    Unhappy !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Thomas01 View Post
    me too, I will not trade this evening and will prepare for the weekend
    Hmm. The UofMich consumer confidence index didn't have the sort of effect I thought it would have on the indices. There was the S&P 500 that fell because the index tanked, but the Dow and NASDAQ actually rose at the time.
    Moreover, I tried hourly calls but all I got was the Dow and the S&P 500 continuing to rise very sharply instead of falling when I entered into a put at the 1472 and 13578 regions respectively.

  6. #6
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Markets held in their pre-data range after the release and for the remainder of the trading session. The data actually showed a decline to 71.3 but this was not enough to generate enough momentum in the markets to trigger a trade.

  7. #7
    Active Member
    Yes the data didn't affect very much the markets, but latter we saw a strong rally of the US30, which I didn't expect and could not attribute to something else except for the weekend enthusiasm

  8. #8
    Veteran Member uj.forex's Avatar
    Do anyone of you think that MAJOR, KEY blue-chip firms in Nasdaq including "Apple" affects the overall market move in the Nasdaq ??? because Apple has fallen severely in the past few months....

  9. #9
    Specialist Member runneroption's Avatar
    It depends do you mean NASDAQ Composite or NASDAQ100 The first is composed of 3000 companies and will be less affected by individual stock movement, but the second as well as DOW30 could be strongly affected by single company price change.

  10. #10
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by runneroption View Post
    It depends do you mean NASDAQ Composite or NASDAQ100 The first is composed of 3000 companies and will be less affected by individual stock movement, but the second as well as DOW30 could be strongly affected by single company price change.
    Yup that's true! I am basing my calls on the Dow and the S&P 500 for this week on a good earnings reports from AAPL. At least one that beats analyst expectations. APPL is fundamentally sound despite what is happening with the stock, technically. I mean the iPhone maker did make record level purchase commitments of components going into the holiday season.

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