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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Tip from the Geek -EUR/USD,USD/JPYS&P500, Weekly and Monthly Expire - 14-21/1/2013 !!!

    Hi guys,

    Michael shared his new top 5 tips for the week! The article provide through analizes of the last week market movement and ideas for the new biggest shakers. Check it out and find which the best opportunities of this week are!

    Originally posted by Michael Hodges. For the whole article click here.

    Euro Continues To Strengthen Against The Dollar

    Eur/USD
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1.300
    Expiration = end of the month

    The euro continues to strengthen against the dollar and the technicals are bullish. The debt ceiling debate issue is driving at least one trade right now and this is it. The impending possibility of an increased US debt load and the risk of credit downgrades is serious business for the dollar and could weaken it further. I am cautious because of expiration week and am looking for an entry below 1.300 for a monthly call on the euro.


    Yen Trade Is Still “Game On!”

    USD/JPY
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 89
    Expiration = monthly

    The USD/JPY trade is still on despite its near vertical run up to the +89 level. The target price of 90 yen per USD set by Shinzo Abe is what is driving this trade and why I call this as close to a sure thing as you can get in trading (but it really isn’t, trading always involves risk). Based on this target the trade still has nearly a whole point to go and momentum will likely take it beyond 90 to some extent.


    S&P 500 Breaking Out To New Highs

    S&P 500
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1465
    Expiration = end of the month

    The S&P is breaking out to new highs but faces a turbulent week. An early week pullback would not be out of place and could provide the entry I am looking for. I fully expect some profit taking due to expiration week for standard equity, index and forex options. Two things that could amplify this move are earnings and economic data. The banks are dominating the earnings front this week but they represent less than 10% of companies reporting this week. Regardless of which report you read be it a bank or otherwise it will be the guidance and forward looking statements that makes or breaks the earnings rally. And the data, the data needs to remain solidly neutral to positive.

  2. #2
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Martin Kay View Post
    Hi guys,

    Michael shared his new top 5 tips for the week! The article provide through analizes of the last week market movement and ideas for the new biggest shakers. Check it out and find which the best opportunities of this week are!
    Those are some tough tips to follow: I am talking about Apple (AAPL) and JP Morgan (JPM). But an encouraging event for Apple will be its earnings report release next week with a staggering $36B in revenue and $8.2B in net profit.

  3. #3
    Senior Member Grae's Avatar
    I have my eyes on the USD JPY. Steady climb so far. Watching for resistance at 89.5 area

  4. #4
    M.J
    M.J is offline
    Veteran Member M.J's Avatar
    Eur is continuously strengthening against dollar. Yesterday it went to 10 month high and currently in a very strong mood. For today, I will prefer to hold and see where it goes. But for weekly trend, technical analysis r in favor of bullish trend.
    Japanese internal conditions caused the slippage against usd and eur. Their head of central bank is trying to take every possible step to escape from deflation. Shinzo abe is demanding "more and more" from central bank. In short term trend looks to be favoring bearish move.

  5. #5
    Active Member
    I think the USD/JPY is already off the table.. You are right Grae, it toped yesterday at 89.50 and I will be surprised if it continue north, without any serious correction. EUR is still very strong but have some barrier level at 1.3400, which could be a short term obstacle for its upside movement.

  6. #6
    Veteran Member Ammeo's Avatar
    Today is the JPY day, already up 1% on the day and maybe more downtrend to come...South is the call

  7. #7
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Wow, I was shocked this morning to see the USD/Yen trading around 88.40. I was expecting a pull back but not quite this much. I am still of the opinion that the yen will move up to and past 90 before any real resistance or consolidation sets in. I may add a weekly call to this trade.

  8. #8
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by M.J View Post
    Eur is continuously strengthening against dollar. Yesterday it went to 10 month high and currently in a very strong mood. For today, I will prefer to hold and see where it goes. But for weekly trend, technical analysis r in favor of bullish trend.
    Japanese internal conditions caused the slippage against usd and eur. Their head of central bank is trying to take every possible step to escape from deflation. Shinzo abe is demanding "more and more" from central bank. In short term trend looks to be favoring bearish move.
    And a bearish move came today. This nice little pullback will only be short term, the yen will most likely cross 90 and could even do it this week. The "unlimited" yen printing policy and price target set by Shinzo Abe is driving this trade and have no indications of abating.

  9. #9
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Thomas01 View Post
    I think the USD/JPY is already off the table.. You are right Grae, it toped yesterday at 89.50 and I will be surprised if it continue north, without any serious correction. EUR is still very strong but have some barrier level at 1.3400, which could be a short term obstacle for its upside movement.
    I don't know, there is nothing changing in the fundamental driver of this trade, Shinzo Abe. He has stated more than once that he will deflate the currency, has set his target at 90 and enacted his yen printing scheme. I think this trade has only really just begun, this week will provide some volatility because of the expiration of cash settled forex options but the tide has turned for the yen. I, for one, am not going to stand in the way of that wave.

  10. #10
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Ammeo View Post
    Today is the JPY day, already up 1% on the day and maybe more downtrend to come...South is the call
    One down day a bear trend does not make. This could be a bear trap, even if I was interested in a put position I wouldn't buy it here, there is too much upside risk over the course of the week with all the data and earnings, not to mention all the other points I have made about this trade.

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