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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    New Tips by Richard - EUR/CHF, SP500. Weekly and Monthly Expiry 14-21/01/13 !!!

    Hi guys, Here are the new Richard's analysis and trading tips for the upcoming week. Check it out as it has important information for you!

    Originally posted by R.Cox. For the full trading briefing click here.

    Alcoa and Wells Fargo Bring in the Earnings Season

    Expectations were generally low to begin with because of the declining aluminum prices seen in 2012. But the improvement on these expectations, along with the company’s positive outlook comments for 2013 push the stock price higher for most of the week. The other main story was Wells Fargo, which was a more positive story, with fourth quarter profits rising 25% on increased loan activity. Ahead next week, the earnings scheduled is loaded and this will likely lead to increases in short term volatility during the week. The main names to watch will be General Electric, Intel, JP Morgan, Citigroup and Bank of America.

    1. For more than 6 months I have been holding a long spot position in the EUR/CHF, as the Swiss central bank enacted a price floor in the currency pair at the 1.20 level. Moves (upward or downward) have been scarce most of this time but in this last week, we saw a major upside push, which is likely to continue long term. Now, we can start looking at monthly CALL options in the EUR/CHF at current levels now that the market is finally making some decisive movements.

    2. With earnings expectations tepid at best, it is likely that many companies will be able to overcome the pessimistic outlook and produce positive surprises. Next week’s earnings calendar is stacked, however, and this makes individual stock plays vulnerable to short term price swings. But with the positive bias, I will be looking for CALLS in the S&P 500 between 1450 and 1460. Risk is obviously for downside earnings surprises this week.

  2. #2
    Junior Member
    Hi

    Does it mean to open end of month in eur/chf and end of week at s&p500 ??

  3. #3
    Legendry Member willyw's Avatar

    Eurgbp weekly !!!

    EUR/GBP WEEKLY as of Monday, 14 January, 2013
    Euro Dollar / British Pound broke above the upside resistance level of 0.82 on Friday. This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 0.82 may now provide downside support.
    RSI Failure swings have occurred. The RSI has just reached its highest value in the last 14 period(s). This is BULLISH signal.
    Euro Dollar / British Pound closed above the upper Bollinger Band by 12.4%. Although prices have broken the upper Bollinger Band and an upside breakout is possible, the most likely scenario is for the current trading range that Euro Dollar / British Pound is in to continue. The probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails eurgbp-w.jpg  

  4. #4
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Martin Kay View Post
    Hi guys, Here are the new Richard's analysis and trading tips for the upcoming week. Check it out as it has important information for you!
    Wells Fargo had a strong earnings report on Friday, but the stock has been tanking. I hope the rest of the bank stocks don't go the same way. Its weird how the market reacts given that WFC has been rated an "overweight" by quite a few Wall Street analysts. I guess this is where monthly calls come in especially at this now long term support level.
    As for the EUR/CHF, I really should have gone in at the 1.21 level for a monthly call. The rate is now at 1.22!

  5. #5
    Legendry Member willyw's Avatar
    EUR/CHF WEEKLY as of Tuesday, 15 January, 2013
    A Weekly big white candle has formed. This is a bullish candle as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are "low," it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off a support area (e.g., a moving average, trend line, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
    For the past 10 Weekly candlestick bars as of 14/01/13, there are 5 white candles versus 4 black candles with a net of 1 white candles.
    For the past 50 Weekly candlestick bars as of 14/01/13, there are 27 white candles versus 19 black candles with a net of 8 white candles.
    A Weekly rising window has formed (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend.Three Weekly white candles has formed during the last three Weekly bars. Although these candles were not big enough to create three Weekly white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
    On 14/01/13, Euro Dollar / Swiss Franc closed above the upper Bollinger Band by 41.3%. Although prices have broken the upper Bollinger Band and an upside breakout is possible, the most likely scenario is for the current trading range that Euro Dollar / Swiss Franc is in to continue. Bollinger Bands are 69.00% narrower than normal. The narrow width of the Bollinger Bands suggests low volatility as compared to Euro Dollar / Swiss Franc's normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the Bollinger Bands remain in this narrow range.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails eurchf-bband-w.jpg   eurchf-wave-w.jpg  

  6. #6
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by willyw View Post
    EUR/GBP WEEKLY as of Monday, 14 January, 2013
    Euro Dollar / British Pound broke above the upside resistance level of 0.82 on Friday. This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 0.82 may now provide downside support.
    RSI Failure swings have occurred. The RSI has just reached its highest value in the last 14 period(s). This is BULLISH signal.
    Euro Dollar / British Pound closed above the upper Bollinger Band by 12.4%. Although prices have broken the upper Bollinger Band and an upside breakout is possible, the most likely scenario is for the current trading range that Euro Dollar / British Pound is in to continue. The probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term.
    I think you are right that the euro/GBP will consolidate in a range since there is no expected change in the underlying fundamentals between these two currencies. Currencies are all consolidating against each other after the massive amounts of stimulus, QE and debt restructurings we saw last year. The Euro has been stabilizing against two other major world currencies, the yen and the dollar, for two different reasons. The Euro has shown strength ever since the ECB, the Eurozone, Germany, Greece and Spain were able to put their near term sovereign debt problems on the shelf and moves by Shinzo Abe to weaken the yen and the impending increase in debt/possible credit downgrade for the US is causing those two currencies to lose favor over the Euro.

  7. #7
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by vinayakm View Post
    Wells Fargo had a strong earnings report on Friday, but the stock has been tanking. I hope the rest of the bank stocks don't go the same way. Its weird how the market reacts given that WFC has been rated an "overweight" by quite a few Wall Street analysts. I guess this is where monthly calls come in especially at this now long term support level.
    As for the EUR/CHF, I really should have gone in at the 1.21 level for a monthly call. The rate is now at 1.22!
    If you look at WFC and the different banking indexes you can see that there was some run up pre-release for all the banks because of the expectations. Wells, and AMEX, both gave us good reports but nothing truly surprisingly good. The pullback is ok and the up trend should continue in the financials as more and more banks report. This is a buying opportunity for me on banks but I am using JPM.

  8. #8
    Senior Member Grae's Avatar
    I must admit, I have been watching EURCHF and all CHF pairs from the sidelines since the SNB capped it--sudden moves every so often. But interesting moves this week.

  9. #9
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    Should be a big week for the Dow with JPM already having a positive earnings reports with $5.7B in profits alone (up 54% from last year). INTC, GE and BAC should drive the Dow to some highs this week despite the Index tanking so far Wednesday.

  10. #10
    Legendry Member willyw's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by vinayakm View Post
    Should be a big week for the Dow with JPM already having a positive earnings reports with $5.7B in profits alone (up 54% from last year). INTC, GE and BAC should drive the Dow to some highs this week despite the Index tanking so far Wednesday.
    EUR/CHF DAILY as of Thursday, 17 January, 2013
    Euro Dollar / Swiss Franc broke above the upside resistance level of 1.21, 4 days ago. This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 1.21 may now provide downside support. Trading Euro Dollar / Swiss Franc would be place a stop loss just below the resistance level, in case the breakout is premature. However, prices have risen some distance since breaking out--1.92%, thereby adding more validity to the breakout. The most recently confirmed downside support level for Euro Dollar / Swiss Franc is around 1.21. Expect prices to have some difficulty falling below this level. A break below this level would be a bearish sign.

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