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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Top 5 Trading Tips 1-4/1/2013 and a Happy New Year! !!!

    Hi, guys! Michael posted his trading tips for the first week of 2013! Check them before trading. Happy New Year to all of you!

    Originally posted by Michael Hodges for more info on these events click here.

    1. The S&P Setting Up For Big Bounce

    S&P 500
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = Market Open Wednesday/Conditional
    Expiration = end of week
    My Trading Advice
    My technicals are screaming buy at me but the Fiscal Cliff still has me spooked. There are lots of reasons to think the market is going up but our good ole politicians may scuttle the ship and send it sinking if they don’t satisfy us soon with some form of budget agreement. This morning futures trading broke the critical support of 1400 and this trade carried over into the opening of regular trading. My first thoughts on this was oh no, here it comes but I was mistaken. Support is still there, currently holding at 1400 and the 150 day moving average.

    The early opening met support that quickly brought the S&P 500 back above 1400. If not for the possible Cliff Effect that still looms I would be buying short, medium and long term calls on the index as we speak. As it is I am being cautious this week and waiting for Wednesday before making a move on the US indexes. I may miss an really good entry but lets remember, this is binary and all that matters is that the markets close higher than when I buy in. I am conditionally going to buy in at open on Wednesday (markets are closed tomorrow) provided that we get a cliff deal and the markets don’t make a huge gap open.


    2. Europe Braces For Fiscal Cliff Solution

    FTSE 100
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = Wednesday/conditional
    Expiration = end of the week
    My Trading Advice
    Europe, like the rest of the world, is bracing for a Fiscal Cliff solution. Traders around the world are waiting to see what will happen and if the US will derail the global economic recovery. Today German Prime Minister Merkel stated that the reforms will take patience, that recovery is not going to happen overnight.

    The English markets traded up to long term resistance last week and were capped just like the US markets. The holiday week, end of the year and Cliff shenanigans has kept this index in check. Again, the underlying trend is one of slow recovery so I see lots of potential for upside in this index. However, the Fiscal Cliff has cast a pall over this market as well and I just don’t see getting in before a solution as a good idea. Because of the ongoing negotiations in the US and tomorrow’s holiday I am holding off on this one until Wednesday as well.


    3.Euro Consolidates Versus The Dollar

    Eur/USD
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1.3200
    Expiration = end of the week
    My Trading Advice
    The Euro has made a nice run up versus the dollar and is now consolidating above previous resistance. The move in early December looks like it is only half played and a continuation of that is likely. My current target for the Eur/USD trade is a peak around 1.3500. I expect the impending Fiscal Cliff patchwork solution to be a catalyst for this trade. Any entry below 1.3200 looks good for an end of the week expiration.

  2. #2
    M.J
    M.J is offline
    Veteran Member M.J's Avatar
    Nice fundamental analysis.
    Both S&P and EU are favoring ur opinion.

    FTSE looks to be PUT for the week. Weekly trend doesnt look favorable for call.
    S&P 500 technical analysis shows strong upward movement in this week.
    Eur/usd, hopefully, will also be bullish this week.

  3. #3
    Veteran Member uj.forex's Avatar
    The market started off the new year with making solid bullish moves and made highs before even the start of European session.... We'll have to see if they could sustain their bullish momentum because tonight voting would be done for the Fiscal Cliff issue.... Dollar may rise against the majors while S&P might fall drastically....

  4. #4
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar

    Smile Fiscal cliff deal reached !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Martin Kay View Post
    Hi, guys! Michael posted his trading tips for the first week of 2013! Check them before trading. Happy New Year to all of you!
    So far your tips have been spot on and I expect them to hold by all means! Our politicians managed to hammer out a deal as many in the US and across the pond expected. I am still poring over material on the long term effects of the deal, but were talking about the short term here and that bodes well for the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and the currency pairs mentioned.
    Last edited by vinayakm; 01-02-2013 at 10:28 AM.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Grae's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by vinayakm View Post
    So far your tips have been spot on and I expect them to hold by all means! Our politicians managed to hammer out a deal as many in the US and across the pond expected. I am still poring over material on the long term effects of the deal, but were talking about the short term here and that bodes well for the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and the currency pairs mentioned.
    Well put! Post fiscal cliff woes, we wait to see how the 'markets exhale.' Meanwhile looking for call opportunities with the S&P

  6. #6
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by vinayakm View Post
    So far your tips have been spot on and I expect them to hold by all means! Our politicians managed to hammer out a deal as many in the US and across the pond expected. I am still poring over material on the long term effects of the deal, but were talking about the short term here and that bodes well for the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and the currency pairs mentioned.
    The long term effects are yet to be seen but in the near term relief has driven us to new highs. I have been looking for a retest of 1465 and I think tomorrow could be it and right now I think it prices will blow right through it. a retest of the all time highs is next and that will be my next upside target, provided we get past 1465.

  7. #7
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by M.J View Post
    Nice fundamental analysis.
    Both S&P and EU are favoring ur opinion.

    FTSE looks to be PUT for the week. Weekly trend doesnt look favorable for call.
    S&P 500 technical analysis shows strong upward movement in this week.
    Eur/usd, hopefully, will also be bullish this week.
    Ithink the world markets are goind to trade in line with teh S&P now that the Cliff is mostly behind us. i I say mostly because we only got a partial fix, spending issues are yet to be decided. The FTSE broke out to new highs today and I think it will continue until next resistance, or the release of bad macroeconomic news.

  8. #8
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    man o man. I thought the market was going up but I just wasn't sure. Waiting until this morning was smart, and getting in right at open even smarter. I was actually able to trade this one twice today, I got in for a second position around lunch time on the pullback to 1445. The late day punch up to and through 1460 is very bullish for me at this time.

    The S&P has made a giant move upward and has recrossed important res/sup. Tomorrow will be important, if the markets hold at these levels Monday could be the start of a real up leg, not just a technical bounce. I am looking for a breach of resistance at 1465 and at least a retest of all time highs at 1565.

  9. #9
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    OH yes, and I can say that I got really lucky on some of my December S&P entries, I thought some of the monthly expirations were going to lose but the markets came back on Monday and saved me!

  10. #10
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    OH yes, and I can say that I got really lucky on some of my December S&P entries, I thought some of the monthly expirations were going to lose but the markets came back on Monday and saved me!
    It seems like you'll get your resistance of 1465, but I don't see the 1565 thing happening. Your calls on the Nikkei and the Eur/USD didn't work out, but I feel its worthwhile trading the Eur/USD. I am going to have to adjust the entry levels for calls on the Nikkei for this week.

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