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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    New Tips by Richard - Euro Posts Gains on the Year 12/31-1/7/2013 !!!

    Hi guys, this week Richard post his new trading briefing for the upcomming week, with best wishes for Happy New Year for all traders!

    Originally posted by R.Cox. For the full trading breifing click here.

    My Trading Recommendations in 50 words

    1.With the Fiscal Cliff deadline not being seen until trading starts next week, it is better to wait for the event risk to pass before entering into new positions. A negative outcome could create volatility in risk currencies, however, and I will be looking for monthly CALL options in the EUR/USD if prices trade back to 1.3130. This longer time frame will allow the “dust to settle” if we do see a negative Fiscal Cliff outcome, and analysts will be forced to start looking at data releases for the next trend direction.

    2. Last week’s reduced volatility led the previous CALL in Gold to barely end the week in the money but the asset still represents the best hedge against a negative Fiscal Cliff outcome I will be looking to draw from the well once again and enter into monthly CALLS near 1650. Weekly trades this period are too risky, given the proximity of the Fiscal Cliff deadline.

  2. #2
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    It was interesting to note that the gold price actually rose with the fiscal cliff deal being reached and it was dawdling when the fiscal cliff talks were going on. I thought the opposite would happen.

  3. #3
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    gold has been very crazy this week. there is a lot of factors going into this trade. The fiscal cliff is still affecting iit, the debt ceiling debate, Japanese yen printing and the now expected end of QE later this year will keep gold, in my opinion, range bound for the near term. this morning the drop to sub 1650 levels was potentially bearish, the trade tried to regain 1650 but has yet to decisively make the move. Gold will be a great trade for hourly and daily calls as it will be affected by news in ways that equities and currencies will not.

  4. #4
    Veteran Member uj.forex's Avatar
    absolutely... gold has been quite volatile for the past few days... it came down to 1635 from 1700s, then again tested 1695, and then again came back to 1620's.... and is now in 1650's range.... amazing volatility.... however, we can see that the impact of QE on the U.S dollar has faded plus euro and pound gained massively against the dollar and made new highs.... but then again, they both are in the bearish trend.... nevertheless, gbp and euro are doing good against the yen as the bulls are in control....

  5. #5
    Legendry Member willyw's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by uj.forex View Post
    absolutely... gold has been quite volatile for the past few days... it came down to 1635 from 1700s, then again tested 1695, and then again came back to 1620's.... and is now in 1650's range.... amazing volatility.... however, we can see that the impact of QE on the U.S dollar has faded plus euro and pound gained massively against the dollar and made new highs.... but then again, they both are in the bearish trend.... nevertheless, gbp and euro are doing good against the yen as the bulls are in control....
    XAU/USD WEEKLY as of Monday, 07 January, 2013
    John Murphy Chart Pattern Recognition (CPR) of Gold / US Dollar (XAUUSD) on 04/01/13
    An Ascending Triangle pattern formed indicating a possible trading opportunity. An Ascending Triangle is bullish. It is usually (but not always) preceded by an uptrend. The probabilities favor a continuation of the prevailing trend. An aggressive trader wanting to front-run a confirmed breakout signal may place a buy-stop for entry at 1,763.0034
    The present wave patterns are:
    fast amplitude (8%): bullish wave 2
    moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 3
    Gold / US Dollar is long term Bullish as the 144 days moving average of 1,513.61 is increasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 44.60 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 48.47 in the neutral territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at -1.64, in negative territory; this is a bearish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 0.08. This value is in the oversold territory.
    Weekly Pivot Point Resistance and Support
    The first weekly resistance level is at 1,665.36 while the second resistance level at 1,674.95. The first weekly support level is at 1,647.00 while the second support level is at 1,638.23.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails gold-cpr-w.jpg   gold-waver-w.jpg  

  6. #6
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by vinayakm View Post
    It was interesting to note that the gold price actually rose with the fiscal cliff deal being reached and it was dawdling when the fiscal cliff talks were going on. I thought the opposite would happen.

    I would say that the volatility is coming from the fact that there are 3 main factors directly affecting Gold prices. First, we have the belated Fiscal Cliff resolution (Gold negative), mixed employment data in the US (relatively strong headline number but an increase in the Unemployment Rate), and the Federal Reserve comments suggesting that the latest QE program will actually have an ending data. Gold is priced in Dollars and these comments are Dollar positive. It would have been unwise to get into a short term trade any year during the New Year's transition but this year we had some additional elements of uncertainty. Since things have played out in a relatively stable way, January should be a negative month for the USD (against most of the majors, and that should help the trades move into positive territory later on.

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