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  1. #1
    Veteran Member Ammeo's Avatar

    EUR/USD Weekly Outlook (22nd December ,2012) !!!

    EUR/USD rose to as high as 1.3308 last week before forming a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week and deeper fall might be seen. But downside should be contained by 1.3126 support and bring another rally. Above 1.3308 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2042 to 1.3171 from 1.2661 at 1.3359 next. However, break of 1.3126 will at least indicate that deeper fall is underway to 1.2876 support and below.

    In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4939 is treated as a falling leg inside the consolidation pattern that started at 1.6039 (2008 high). Such decline should have completed at 1.2042 already. Break of 1.3486 will confirm and should pave the way to 1.5 psychological level in medium term. Better to stay bullish as long as 1.2661 support holds...

  2. #2
    Rookie Member
    I appreciate your analysis. It will be better if you please graphically represent it by chart then it will easier to understand. I'll update on EURUSD later after opening the market. As there is Christmas in this week, so I guess the market will be little bit choppy. So I'm out of the market this week and will be trading from next year.

  3. #3
    Legendry Member willyw's Avatar
    EUR/USD WEEKLY as of Monday, 24 December, 2012
    A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
    During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
    A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
    A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
    Euro Dollar / US Dollar appears to be locked in a trading range bounded by upside resistance and downside support. The most recently confirmed upside resistance level for Euro Dollar / US Dollar is around 1.49. Expect prices to have some difficulty rising above this level. A break above this level would be a bullish sign. The most recently confirmed downside support level for Euro Dollar / US Dollar is around 1.21. Expect prices to have some difficulty falling below this level. A break below this level would be a bearish sign.
    Euro Dollar / US Dollar appears to be locked in a triangle formation bounded by a down trendline and an up trendline. The most recently confirmed down trendline for Euro Dollar / US Dollar has an ending point currently at 1.47. Expect prices to have some difficulty rising above this trendline. A break above this trendline would be a bullish sign. The most recently confirmed up trendline for Euro Dollar / US Dollar has an ending point currently at 1.21. Expect prices to have some difficulty falling below this trendline. A break below this trendline would be a bearish sign.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails eur-candle-w.jpg  
    Last edited by willyw; 12-24-2012 at 11:29 AM.

  4. #4
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by willyw View Post
    EUR/USD WEEKLY as of Monday, 24 December, 2012
    A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
    During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
    A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
    A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
    Euro Dollar / US Dollar appears to be locked in a trading range bounded by upside resistance and downside support. The most recently confirmed upside resistance level for Euro Dollar / US Dollar is around 1.49. Expect prices to have some difficulty rising above this level. A break above this level would be a bullish sign. The most recently confirmed downside support level for Euro Dollar / US Dollar is around 1.21. Expect prices to have some difficulty falling below this level. A break below this level would be a bearish sign.
    Euro Dollar / US Dollar appears to be locked in a triangle formation bounded by a down trendline and an up trendline. The most recently confirmed down trendline for Euro Dollar / US Dollar has an ending point currently at 1.47. Expect prices to have some difficulty rising above this trendline. A break above this trendline would be a bullish sign. The most recently confirmed up trendline for Euro Dollar / US Dollar has an ending point currently at 1.21. Expect prices to have some difficulty falling below this trendline. A break below this trendline would be a bearish sign.
    The Euro is in a range right now, trading just over and under 1.3200 over the past few weeks. This range is bound on both sides by Fiscal Cliff conjecture, will the US kill or boost the world economy. The Euro will likely stay in this range until after the first of the year and then conitnue upward. The Euro, the ECB and the Eurozone have taken care of business as far as 2013 funding is concerned and there is no more easing expected near term from that quarter, which will help the Euro strengthen against the dollar.

    Yesterday's candle, though black, confrimed support at 1.3200 with it's longish lower wick, I would not be playing the Euro to the downside until a break below 1.3200 AND a confirmation of that break down. The six month trend is up and the pair is above resistance so the only trades that make sense for me are calls. intraday weakness has provided good entry points for weekly and monthly calls for over two weeks.

    I have no expectations for the Euro to get to 1.4700 vs the dollar, there is still alot of resistance moving forward, 1.3500 and 1.400 are going to be tough lines to cross, even if the US begins a new round of stimulus.

  5. #5
    Legendry Member willyw's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    The Euro is in a range right now, trading just over and under 1.3200 over the past few weeks. This range is bound on both sides by Fiscal Cliff conjecture, will the US kill or boost the world economy. The Euro will likely stay in this range until after the first of the year and then conitnue upward. The Euro, the ECB and the Eurozone have taken care of business as far as 2013 funding is concerned and there is no more easing expected near term from that quarter, which will help the Euro strengthen against the dollar.

    Yesterday's candle, though black, confrimed support at 1.3200 with it's longish lower wick, I would not be playing the Euro to the downside until a break below 1.3200 AND a confirmation of that break down. The six month trend is up and the pair is above resistance so the only trades that make sense for me are calls. intraday weakness has provided good entry points for weekly and monthly calls for over two weeks.

    I have no expectations for the Euro to get to 1.4700 vs the dollar, there is still alot of resistance moving forward, 1.3500 and 1.400 are going to be tough lines to cross, even if the US begins a new round of stimulus.
    Yes, EUR/USD is in a tight range for 1 week on the daily chart and for the past month on the weekly chart. Bias is on the upside though but a breakout could be either way. On the weekly chart, using Bill Williams fractal trading signal, there is a buy signal occur 3 weeks ago but a pull back on the daily chart is expected before EUR/USD continue its upward climb.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails eur-d.jpg   eur-w.jpg  

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