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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    New Tips by the Geek - S&P500, USD/EUR, USD/JPY.One Week to Month Expiry - December !!!

    Hi guys, just before the holidays, new trading tips by the geek!

    For more Trading Tips by Michael for this week Click Here



    S&P 500

    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1420
    Expiration = end of the week


    My Trading Advice in 50 Words
    The markets are real choppy right now. The S&P is recovering from the recent selling and has a lot of resistance in front of it. Long term direction is cloudy and in the near term fiscal cliff worry could cap the market at the next significant resistance of 1430. The long term indicators show a bull market that is bouncing from support but one that is weakening and ready for major correction. In the short term the index is still drifting up and is supported by the short and long term moving averages. Until the cliff is past, and past it will become, I am only going to be trading weekly options on the S&P. There is just too much opportunity for news, technical trading or the economy to derail any potential long term movements. For now, while the index is above the moving averages I am looking for the index to move up to the next resistance at 1430.




    Eur/USD

    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1.3050
    Expiration = end of the week



    My Trading Advice in 50 Words

    The euro is experiencing a relief based pop driven by the corrective measures being taken throughout the region. Greece finally got its relief package last week, putting it and its debt back on the shelf for another year or so. Spain has also requested aid. This in itself is a little surprising because of how long Spain stood its ground against the relief. What was even more surprising was the small amount of coverage it got in the media. Anyway, the pair has moved up past the significant 1.3000 level and looks good to follow through on earlier bullish signals.



    JPY/USD

    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 82.50
    Expiration = end of the month

    My Trading Advice in 50 Words
    The Japanese yen is consolidating against the dollar. The recent slide in its value, driven by BOJ easing and expectations of “unlimited” easing after the impending elections should continue based on a technical perspective. The consolidation could take a week or more, maybe until the elections are finalized, but it will be up again by the end of the month.



  2. #2
    Senior Member Grae's Avatar
    S&P 500 and EURUSD are definitely a CALL for me too.

    JPYUSD is different from USDJPY as a CALL. Please clarify. JPYUSD CALL means USDJPY PUT. In which case that may not be according to trends.

  3. #3
    M.J
    M.J is offline
    Veteran Member M.J's Avatar
    Long term S&P500 will most probably be bullish. But u r right that it is still a bit cloudy.
    Indicators r strongly in favor of bullish Eur/USD.
    If u say USD/JPY then I am strongly in favor of PUT for today but not sure about weekly performance (most probably Call). Previous week, jpy dropped significantly but managed to recover a little in the end. Hopefully it will rise this week.

  4. #4
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar

    Michael should pass the test with an A !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by M.J View Post
    Long term S&P500 will most probably be bullish. But u r right that it is still a bit cloudy.
    Indicators r strongly in favor of bullish Eur/USD.
    If u say USD/JPY then I am strongly in favor of PUT for today but not sure about weekly performance (most probably Call). Previous week, jpy dropped significantly but managed to recover a little in the end. Hopefully it will rise this week.
    It seems that Michael has outdone himself this week since he has been put to the "test". No, but he actually seems to have the tips quite right most the time anyway.

  5. #5
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Grae View Post
    S&P 500 and EURUSD are definitely a CALL for me too.

    JPYUSD is different from USDJPY as a CALL. Please clarify. JPYUSD CALL means USDJPY PUT. In which case that may not be according to trends.
    Whooops, sorrry about that guys, I mean the USD/JPY.....this trade has got legs, provided the unlimited easing actually comes.

  6. #6
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by M.J View Post
    Long term S&P500 will most probably be bullish. But u r right that it is still a bit cloudy.
    Indicators r strongly in favor of bullish Eur/USD.
    If u say USD/JPY then I am strongly in favor of PUT for today but not sure about weekly performance (most probably Call). Previous week, jpy dropped significantly but managed to recover a little in the end. Hopefully it will rise this week.
    Yeah, I meant the USD/JPY...sorry for the typo, .

    A put would have been great yesterday into today, Now that the yen is back down near 81.90 I think it may find support again.

  7. #7
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by vinayakm View Post


    It seems that Michael has outdone himself this week since he has been put to the "test". No, but he actually seems to have the tips quite right most the time anyway.
    thanks for the vote of confidence... I take the tips seriously because I want to be right for myself and for anyone who wants to trade the way I do. I have been fortunate so far and have not had a significant losing streak but I would be foolish to think I didn't have some losses in my future...

  8. #8
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    thanks for the vote of confidence... I take the tips seriously because I want to be right for myself and for anyone who wants to trade the way I do. I have been fortunate so far and have not had a significant losing streak but I would be foolish to think I didn't have some losses in my future...
    That's great to hear! Your tips made a lot of sense, but the markets may not do them justice. I don't see the Hang Seng falling and the NASDAQ Composite rising high enough. S&P500 has interestingly been up and down and I went ahead with the call on the USD/JPY, but it is making me considerably nervous.
    However, I was lucky enough to make the call on the USD/JPY so things should be alright.

  9. #9
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Pretty uneventful week so far, not much in the way of volatility. This could be a pretty clear sign of what is to come in the next few weeks but if we do see sideways drifts, a slight upward bias is more likely than small declines.

  10. #10
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Euro is seeing some upside but the risk looks to rest at 1.3040 for some stops being tripped.

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