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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    New Tips by the Geek - S&P500, Apple, USD/EUR. One Week Expiry! 19-26/11/2012 !!!

    Hi all traders, new tips by the week for this week. one week expiry - check out fast before you miss the train!

    Originally posted by Michael H. For more trading tips from the geek click here.

    1. SPX In Play, Bouncing, Bouncing, Bouncing


    S&P 500
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1380
    Expiration = end of the week

    The S&P is clearly in bounce mode today, we’ll see how it plays out over the week. With the week shortened due to the Holiday I think the index will stay below the next upside resistance. Before the open my upside target was 1380 but trading pierced that level rather quickly so I think my next upside target of 1400 is likely. I am playing a weekly call on the S&P.

    2. Apple, Bouncing Too….


    Apple
    Call/Put = call
    Entry = below $550
    Expiration = end of the week

    Apple is making a nice bounce too. Friday’s candle signal was a textbook Hammer doji, that if taken Friday afternoon is paying off nicely today. Apple has a lot going for it despite the criticisms and any global weakness it may be facing. The stock is way undervalued at this level, driven here by fear, knee-jerk reactions and speculation. Apple’s bounce may be exaggerated compared to the general market but I’m not sure how long it will last… Apple has been a tricky trade for me as you all may know.

    3. Eurodollars or Eurotrash?


    Eur/USD
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1.2800
    Expiration = end of the week

    The Euro seems to have reached a support level, at least for the short term. Europe seems to have its house under control, if not in order, despite the riots in Greece and Spain. The Euro should gain this week,but the rise may not last long. There is resistance at 1.3000.



  2. #2
    M.J
    M.J is offline
    Veteran Member M.J's Avatar
    I agree with ur short term analysis of SPX but I am not sure about how it moves in next couple of days. In my opinion, by judging current situation, it is 65% PUT and 35% Call for this week.

  3. #3
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Martin Kay View Post
    Hi all traders, new tips by the week for this week. one week expiry - check out fast before you miss the train!
    S&P500: The Fibonacci bounce out of the 1340 area was definitely encouraging and while I am still looking to be a seller on any meaningful rally for the rest of this year, we could see a slow drift into the low 1390s this week. Lack of market interest because of the holiday week is one of the only things I can see driving the index higher and if we see some profit taking on longer term short positions, a weekly close somewhere in the 1390 region is definitely a possibility.

    AAPL: The stock has clearly had a rough run in the last couple of months and as usual in these cases, I would rather bet against the previous momentum as there are likely not many active sellers left at this stage. The only thing that could hurt PUTS here would be the relatively orderly nature that was shown in the previous declines (rather than just an extreme and volatile drop). Moves like that tend to be more sustainable but risk to reward clearly favors the topside in the near to medium term.

    Euro: I was actually considering making a bullish recommendation on the Euro this week but instead opted for a play in a high yielder instead as I think there is more downside potential there. Long term, I am with the argument that the Euro has been sold off irrationally and is oversold but I am looking for US Dollar strength in the coming weeks, and this could easily send the Euro back to the mid-1.26s before anything resembling a corrective bounce surfaces. Markets will slow this week, however, so we might not even get below 1.27 before the close on Friday.

  4. #4
    Senior Member Grae's Avatar
    Steady rise for the S&P 500, looking to see how long it takes to break the 1380 and move higher. Fundamentally, Apple should be a call.
    The Euro may recover depending on how the USD fairs.
    There is a pin bar on the one day. Lets see if the pin bar prevails until close of market for a confirmation of a bullish Euro.

  5. #5
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    The relatively high level of puts could suggest the market will be moving up and the 26 points we got yesterday echoes that sentiment. The S&P is likely to be volatile (or I should say could be) over the next few weeks as Fiscal Cliff (sounds of doom in the back ground) scenarios play out in politics. Each support/resistance could provide a bounce or nothing at all which will make super short term intraday trading tricky.

  6. #6
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by RCox View Post
    S&P500: The Fibonacci bounce out of the 1340 area was definitely encouraging and while I am still looking to be a seller on any meaningful rally for the rest of this year, we could see a slow drift into the low 1390s this week. Lack of market interest because of the holiday week is one of the only things I can see driving the index higher and if we see some profit taking on longer term short positions, a weekly close somewhere in the 1390 region is definitely a possibility.

    AAPL: The stock has clearly had a rough run in the last couple of months and as usual in these cases, I would rather bet against the previous momentum as there are likely not many active sellers left at this stage. The only thing that could hurt PUTS here would be the relatively orderly nature that was shown in the previous declines (rather than just an extreme and volatile drop). Moves like that tend to be more sustainable but risk to reward clearly favors the topside in the near to medium term.

    Euro: I was actually considering making a bullish recommendation on the Euro this week but instead opted for a play in a high yielder instead as I think there is more downside potential there. Long term, I am with the argument that the Euro has been sold off irrationally and is oversold but I am looking for US Dollar strength in the coming weeks, and this could easily send the Euro back to the mid-1.26s before anything resembling a corrective bounce surfaces. Markets will slow this week, however, so we might not even get below 1.27 before the close on Friday.
    I also think any rally we see from here will meet with selling. The fiscal cliff will drive volatility but hopes of its resolution will keep the market moving higher. Plus, the economic data still has a positive spin, if only mildly, and earnings expectations aren't as bad as they were at the beginning of the 3Q reporting season. I think the S&P could be in a topping action, it'll have to make a new high to keep me bullish long term. We'll have to keep a look out for the Santa Rally (yes Im already pulling out that word) and see just how high it takes us. Resistance is heavy moving forward with major lines at 1400,1429,1430 and 1465. As for profit taking, I think that may be on hold for a bit, the institutional investors will likely be waiting to see how high this bounce takes us before renewing any of that.

    I think Apple will retrace some of its bear market. It was the previous market leader and the retracement could be the market leader now. The top of the retracement will probably coincide with the next down leg in the general markets and will be a telling clue as to long term direction for Apple, the S&P and the Comp.

    I have been looking to get back into the Euro because I am bullish on it long term. I have been out of it for a few weeks and this week was my test trade. I think Friday could be a good day for the trade since the markets will be open and lots of American traders will be home, eating leftovers and watching tv. :-) Just like me.
    Happy Thanksgiving Richard.

  7. #7
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    I was waiting for it to bust 1380 too and it didn't take long, I think that 1400 is the line in play for this week. I agree with Richard on a likely close in the 1390-1400 range. Next Monday will be big, we'll have the first reports of Black Friday results, fiscal cliff news(maybe) and possibly even Euro news as well.

  8. #8
    Senior Member Grae's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Grae View Post
    Steady rise for the S&P 500, looking to see how long it takes to break the 1380 and move higher. Fundamentally, Apple should be a call.
    The Euro may recover depending on how the USD fairs.
    There is a pin bar on the one day. Lets see if the pin bar prevails until close of market for a confirmation of a bullish Euro.
    PinBar closed. We are above 1.2800. I see bulling behavior prevail? Anyone?

  9. #9
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Grae View Post
    PinBar closed. We are above 1.2800. I see bulling behavior prevail? Anyone?
    I'm still liking the Eur/usd trade. This morning looks promising, charts are good.... I still think it may be early for long term entry but there should be some short term gains over the next week or so. I think they may announce a deal for Greece to get it's money Monday or Tuesday and that I think will help the Eur lose some more ground to the dollar.

  10. #10
    Senior Member Grae's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    I'm still liking the Eur/usd trade. This morning looks promising, charts are good.... I still think it may be early for long term entry but there should be some short term gains over the next week or so. I think they may announce a deal for Greece to get it's money Monday or Tuesday and that I think will help the Eur lose some more ground to the dollar.
    Happy Thanksgiving/Shopping to you Michael! Superb develoments on EURUSD, SILVER, DOW. What a great end of the week. Cyprus get their 20B USD. Lets see how that plays. Of course the 7 year EU budget is also on the table for discussions. A great week ahead.

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