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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    New Tips by Richard - AUD/USD, FTSE100. Weekly Expiry 19-26/11/2012 !!!

    Hi guys, new trading tips by our expert trader Richard Cox.

    Originally posted by R.Cox. For the full Trading briefing Click Here.

    1. The worst case estimates for a negative conclusion in the Fiscal Cliff talks call for as much as a 4% decline in US economic growth so while those estimates seem excessive, expect the continued focus on this topic to support the US Dollar. I will be looking to take Weekly PUT options in the AUD/USD at current levels, looking for a drop to at least 1.0250.

    2. Bearish sentiment in stocks continues, and the FTSE100 is trading at some suitably bearish levels for PUT options (below 5640). I will take Weekly PUTS here, in what could be a massive drop into the mid 5400s before we see any significant corrections. Rallies above 5730 negates the bias.


  2. #2
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    The FTSE100 has been a result investors wanting to take less risk given the US fiscal cliff, eurozone debt and what appears to be rising tensions in the Middle East. Furthermore, the Bank of England has been rather circumspect with its growth rate of the UK economy in 2013; putting it at around 1 percent.

  3. #3
    M.J
    M.J is offline
    Veteran Member M.J's Avatar
    My call for the previous week was PUT and same for this week it will most likely continue its bearish trend. BUT today I am looking at ranging market instead of trendy. So I am not sure about short term direction but for weekly, it will most probably be bearish.

  4. #4
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Rally above 5730 negated the bearish bias in the FTSE 100 PUT. A move of this size this week was unexpected (as market volumes were more likely to produce a drag on volatility). This move is more likely a result of position squaring more than a real building bullish bias in the market, so I will be looking to enter into new PUTS if prices can move back into the mid 5800s. A move there would also be relatively surprising but it would present excellent risk to reward for the longer term topping bias.

    A similar trajectory has been seen so far in the AUD/USD but the size of the moves were more inline with volatility expectations for the week. The inability of this pair to match the upside seen in equity markets is very discouraging and traders late to this recommendation can still enter into shorter term PUTS at current levels.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Grae's Avatar
    True for FTSE. Though I see a consolidation on AUDUSD. The ceiling at 1.044 may have t be broken for us to make it a CALL- on the 1 day. A risk of 1.030 is still looming.

  6. #6
    Senior Member Grae's Avatar

    Lightbulb Audsd !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Grae View Post
    True for FTSE. Though I see a consolidation on AUDUSD. The ceiling at 1.044 may have t be broken for us to make it a CALL- on the 1 day. A risk of 1.030 is still looming.
    AUDUSD moves out of consolidation for a bull run. Will it last?

  7. #7
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Grae View Post
    AUDUSD moves out of consolidation for a bull run. Will it last?
    I guess the Thanksgiving break has a lot to do with this. The low volume of trading of the USD and US stocks having a tough time as of late means that the AUD/USD put call wasn't a good idea.
    I should have seen this earlier and given the call earlier!

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