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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    New Tips by the Geek - S&P500, FTSE100, USD/JPY. One Month Expiry 11/12-12/12/2012 !!!

    Hi guys, new tips from the geek.

    Originally posted by Michael Hodges. for the full trading tips article click here.

    1. Fiscal Cliff Politics Driving Uncertainty

    S&P 500
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = 1380-1390 range
    Expiration = End of the month



    The S&P is at or very near the bottom of a potential trading range. I think it more likely, in this time of transition and uncertainty, for the range to be a more likely scenario. Investors are unsure of how taxes are going to be raised and until we know for sure stocks are likely to trend sideways…. plus the markets never reverse in a straight line, if this is the end I still expect more topping action. I am looking for the S&P to move up into the range over the next few weeks.


    2. Europe Reaching A Bearish Extreme?

    FTSE 100
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = Below 5800
    Expiration = End of the month



    Europe and the Eurozone may be reaching a bearish extreme. Fears of collapse, rising debt and austerity have driven the market to the bottom of its two month trading range and there isn’t much left to be afraid of. Spain and Greece have both made efforts to meet EU demands, especially Greece, and now the time has come for EU to act. The ECB, European Union and IMF will surely come to some sort of agreement that will alleviate debt issues and help the ailing member nations reach fiscal goals.


    3. BOJ Likely To Re-Stimulate

    USD/JPY
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = Below 79.50
    Expiration = End of the month



    The Bank of Japan has been seeking to weaken the yen for some time in efforts to boost the country’s economy. A recent round of stimulus was even met with disdain and criticized as “not sufficient” by many analysts. Today Japan announced that third quarter GDP shrank by nearly a full percent, the first decline in a year and one step closer to recession. Now it is even more likely the BOJ will inject more capital and that will help drive this trade.

  2. #2
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Martin Kay View Post
    Hi guys, new tips from the geek.
    We are seeing some stalling here in the S&P but I am not seeing this as being particularly encouraging after the way things ended last week. Buyers have not stepped in at these lower short term levels and the fact that the market failed to take much optimism after the US election results all point to a negative picture without much upside. I am seeing some short term opportunities here, as we are unlikely to push through the upper 1390s on first test. Traders can take hourly calls at these levels looking for a drop back into the 1380s.

    Price activity in the FTSE has gotten choppy in recent sessions, I would prefer to stand on the sidelines on this one. If I was pressed for a response I would look to take PUTS into the 5770 area but it is possible that we have already seen the highs for the week in the FTSE. If we are able to get above 5800, short term bias changes to bullish.

    The USD/JPY hit some good entry levels into the 79.40 stage before bouncing nicely, to any opportunity for CALLS in this pair might need to see some sideways consolidation before getting into new longer term CALLS. Ideally, we will see 80.60 give way before a retracement and then this will be the next opportunity to get bullish once again.

  3. #3
    M.J
    M.J is offline
    Veteran Member M.J's Avatar
    For S&P500, I have different opinion. I think it will be "bearish" for current week and might continue same trend in next week. Maybe a little fundamental support in favor of "Call" but technically it will continue to decline. Same with FTSE.

    For USD/JPY, I agree with u. It will most probably be bullish.

  4. #4
    Senior Member Grae's Avatar
    The S&P 500 could bounce from the 1362 area to the 1380 area, both pivots. Im watching first.

    Looking at the USDJPY, Im watching the 80.40 resistance level. No trades yet either.

  5. #5
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by RCox View Post
    We are seeing some stalling here in the S&P but I am not seeing this as being particularly encouraging after the way things ended last week. Buyers have not stepped in at these lower short term levels and the fact that the market failed to take much optimism after the US election results all point to a negative picture without much upside. I am seeing some short term opportunities here, as we are unlikely to push through the upper 1390s on first test. Traders can take hourly calls at these levels looking for a drop back into the 1380s.

    Price activity in the FTSE has gotten choppy in recent sessions, I would prefer to stand on the sidelines on this one. If I was pressed for a response I would look to take PUTS into the 5770 area but it is possible that we have already seen the highs for the week in the FTSE. If we are able to get above 5800, short term bias changes to bullish.

    The USD/JPY hit some good entry levels into the 79.40 stage before bouncing nicely, to any opportunity for CALLS in this pair might need to see some sideways consolidation before getting into new longer term CALLS. Ideally, we will see 80.60 give way before a retracement and then this will be the next opportunity to get bullish once again.
    The USD/yen got a nice pop today, I'm liking my entry for a longer term hold. As for the S&P, this bearishness is just silly. To think that the market will crash because taxes go up.... only people who were already planning to sell next year need to worry about those taxes right now. Everyone else is either a long term holder and doesn't need to worry about next year so much as next decade and the rest of those affected will be short term traders who may have to pay higher taxes on their short term capital gains, which honestly is fair since most of those gains could be viewed as "earnings from work".

    The S&P is obviously correcting but I think it is overblown. Once the fiscal cliff is off the table stocks should rise....I'm still seeing lots of signs that business, if not actual revenue, is improving. I think a raise in short term capital gains taxes could encourage folks to stop trading as much and get back to investing: buy and hold strategies could help support a higher stock market next year.

  6. #6
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    I'm starting to think the fiscal cliff could bring the s&p down some more as well, at least in the short term....Until they start to release some of the details. I think as soon as we get an idea of what the compromise is going to be the markets will start rise again. I also think that dividend producing stocks are going to be hot, the current bearishness has stocks downn across the board, improving yields. Higher dividend yields are going to be crucial for investors looking to get long and ride out the new tax hikes.

  7. #7
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Grae View Post
    The S&P 500 could bounce from the 1362 area to the 1380 area, both pivots. Im watching first.

    Looking at the USDJPY, Im watching the 80.40 resistance level. No trades yet either.
    The usd/yen made its move and is now above 81, what are you're thoughts now.. I think the yen could go higher still....

  8. #8
    Senior Member Grae's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    The usd/yen made its move and is now above 81, what are you're thoughts now.. I think the yen could go higher still....
    Looking at those USDJPY candle sticks over the last 2 days, id say its bullish territory now...
    I am also enjoying the Gold dip into bear territory, and i think silver is 'hanging on a thread' - so to speak.

    However, DOW is a safe bear territory for now.

  9. #9
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar

    Yen is moving !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Grae View Post
    The S&P 500 could bounce from the 1362 area to the 1380 area, both pivots. Im watching first.

    Looking at the USDJPY, Im watching the 80.40 resistance level. No trades yet either.
    The USD/JPY trade is paying off right now, the dollar gained against the yen earlier this week and is holding those levels. The statements from the probable new leader of Japan about unlimited easing will keep this trade moving.

  10. #10
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    I think gold is a temporary dip, long term prospects globally support more easing and that will help keep gold prices up. I'm fond of gold stocks in general right now, the recent drop in gold prices has the gold indexes down near long term support- I think low oil prices and high gold prices are going to combine for increased profitability among the miners in coming quarters.

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