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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    New Tips from Richard - DAX, Gold 5-12/11/2012 !!!

    Hi guys, new trading tips by Richard. Looking forward to monday's markets opening

    Originally Posted by R.Cox - For the full Trading briefing click here.

    1. The latest move higher in the DAX is creating some bearish opportunities and I will be looking to enter into weekly PUTS at the open on Monday. Weakness in the labor market is likely to filter into other aspects of the economy and we are likely to start seeing failures at current levels.



    2. Momentum selling in Gold could also present some opportunities next week but we will need to see prices fall into the 1630 area before weekly CALLS are established. There is a confluence of historical and Fibonacci support in this area and risk aversion could lead to some safe haven buying and propel the metal higher.


  2. #2
    M.J
    M.J is offline
    Veteran Member M.J's Avatar
    Unemployment is increasing in eurozone and decreasing in USA.
    I agree with u on DAX. Most probably bearish.
    Gold is a bit tricky. On friday we saw it falling due to unexpected us jobs index which was better than expected. I think 1600, 1610 is really a good support level where u can buy it. But it may or most probably may not happen. 1630 is also a good call. Lets see where it goes.

  3. #3
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar

    Cool Bearish on gold !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by M.J View Post
    Unemployment is increasing in eurozone and decreasing in USA.
    I agree with u on DAX. Most probably bearish.
    Gold is a bit tricky. On friday we saw it falling due to unexpected us jobs index which was better than expected. I think 1600, 1610 is really a good support level where u can buy it. But it may or most probably may not happen. 1630 is also a good call. Lets see where it goes.
    The US presidential election is going to be critical for the trajectory of gold. History has shown that the stock market will soar when either a Democrat incumbent wins reelection or is replaced by a Republican.
    We know the negative correlation that exists between gold and the stock market with the financial crisis of 2008 being a prime example. There was also the October 1987 stock market crash that saw gold hit an all-time high.
    This time my call is that gold will tumble. The US economy is on a steady recovery too.

  4. #4
    Senior Member Grae's Avatar
    Aye, aye bearish on Gold... Bad days for the Euro. Merkel remarks, breakthrough to below 2 month lows, Spanish Unemployment. Puts might have an opportunity.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Grae's Avatar
    GBPUSD continues on downward channel in keeping with the 1 day time frames - on the back of poor PMI...

  6. #6
    Senior Member Grae's Avatar
    Ok, are reversals in sight? Not yet for GBPUSD if you ask me...

  7. #7
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Grae View Post
    Ok, are reversals in sight? Not yet for GBPUSD if you ask me...
    GBP/USD should have some difficulty falling throguh the 1.5920 area, I see nothing wrong with daily CALLS at current levels but I am also not one to wait for "reversal signals" when trading options. That is more of a buy and hold spot trading type of thing.

  8. #8
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by vinayakm View Post
    The US presidential election is going to be critical for the trajectory of gold. History has shown that the stock market will soar when either a Democrat incumbent wins reelection or is replaced by a Republican.
    We know the negative correlation that exists between gold and the stock market with the financial crisis of 2008 being a prime example. There was also the October 1987 stock market crash that saw gold hit an all-time high.
    This time my call is that gold will tumble. The US economy is on a steady recovery too.
    I won't be basing any trades on the results of the presidential election. At the end of the day, there was very little change in the overall leadership structure and not much reason to believe that economic policy will be taking a different direction any time soon. Once the final corporate earnings results come in and holiday retail figures are are released, the market will turn its attention back to what really matters.

  9. #9
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by vinayakm View Post
    The US presidential election is going to be critical for the trajectory of gold. History has shown that the stock market will soar when either a Democrat incumbent wins reelection or is replaced by a Republican.
    We know the negative correlation that exists between gold and the stock market with the financial crisis of 2008 being a prime example. There was also the October 1987 stock market crash that saw gold hit an all-time high.
    This time my call is that gold will tumble. The US economy is on a steady recovery too.
    Gold will likely remain supported, especially if my expectations for declines in the stock market come true but I am generally not in the business of buying things that are overly expensive. Because of this, I will need to see some downside before short term positions can be taken. Long term in gold is too much risk for corrections.

  10. #10
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar

    Same problems facing Democrat incumbent !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by RCox View Post
    I won't be basing any trades on the results of the presidential election. At the end of the day, there was very little change in the overall leadership structure and not much reason to believe that economic policy will be taking a different direction any time soon. Once the final corporate earnings results come in and holiday retail figures are are released, the market will turn its attention back to what really matters.

    I guess you are right that the leadership structure is essentially the same. Additionally, the fiscal cliff fears have propelled gold to a 3 week high. The political uncertainty may be over, but the U.S. debt issues remain and this will ensure that gold will continue to surge.

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