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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    New Trading Tips From the Geek! One week to to one Month Expiries! !!!

    Almost half way on the fourth quarter of 2012, new trading tips from the geek. Think you know better? let us know!

    Originally posted by Michael Hodges. Click here for more trading tips from the geek.

    S&P Drops To Critical Support

    S&P 500
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1435
    Expiration = end of the month
    My Trading Recommendation



    Last weeks selling dropped the S&P 500 down to its critical support level around 1425-1430. If the S&P drops below this level and confirms resistance I will have to seriously reevaluate my analysis. The string of improving economic announcement continued today with retail sales and Empire Manufacturing. Empire Manufacturing was a little worse than expected but a big improvement over last month. The really good news is the increase in retail sales. The headline number increased by 1.1%, much better than the predicted 0.6% increase expected by analysts. Even the core number, which excludes gas and automobiles, was better than expected and trending up. The thing to keep in mind is that retail sales are a big component of GDP and this number is already causing economists to upgrade their expectations for the third quarter results. I still think a call on the S&P is good, especially if you get it under 1430-1435. My warning is that based on last week I am going to wait until later in the week before buying in again.

    I Have Four Words For Europe

    FTSE 100
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 5815
    Expiration = end of the month
    My Trading Recommendation



    My four words for Europe are kick, can, down and road. Worry over Spain and Greece was alleviated again by the possibility of future good news. Current headlines now have Spain asking for bail out money next month. Eventually Spain will have to buck up and take some help but for now they have avoided unwanted austerity measures once again. On the Greek front German Finance Minister Schauble says that Greece won’t default and other statements that support keeping the Euro and Eurozone intact. These two developments should help remove some resistance in the European sector and allow the European markets to focus on the recent rounds of positive news. Positive developments in the US and Asia can only help the EU. Last weeks recommendation still looks good and this week I am going to get in again even lower.


    The Euro Waits For Europe

    EUR/USD
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1.2925
    Expiration = end of the month
    My Trading Recommendation



    The Euro has been trending sideways for over two weeks as the recent acts in the Eurozone drama have played out. Signs are good that despite near term fears the Euro and the EU will remain intact. There is no real solution yet but it does seem as though big brother Germany and other important players are relaxing the pressure a little which is aimed at allowing the troubled nations time to make sustainable changes. The momentum in the Euro versus the dollar is still positive and the currency pair is building support along the short term moving average. My target for the EUR/USD trade is around 1.3500.



  2. #2
    Senior Member Grae's Avatar
    Hi Michael.

    So far so good on the EurUSD and Apple! Now for EurUSD, I see a bounce/retracement first for this currency before proceeding to higher resistance level- around the 1.3222 area.
    Can I correctly say that the long term outlook for this pair is a see-saw movement towards Christmas?

    Lets see what the week kicks our way.

    Kind regards,
    Graham

  3. #3
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    I feel the same way towards the pair, so far so good this month.

  4. #4
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    S&P Drops To Critical Support

    S&P 500
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1435
    Expiration = end of the month
    My Trading Recommendation



    Last weeks selling dropped the S&P 500 down to its critical support level around 1425-1430. If the S&P drops below this level and confirms resistance I will have to seriously reevaluate my analysis. The string of improving economic announcement continued today with retail sales and Empire Manufacturing. Empire Manufacturing was a little worse than expected but a big improvement over last month. The really good news is the increase in retail sales. The headline number increased by 1.1%, much better than the predicted 0.6% increase expected by analysts. Even the core number, which excludes gas and automobiles, was better than expected and trending up. The thing to keep in mind is that retail sales are a big component of GDP and this number is already causing economists to upgrade their expectations for the third quarter results. I still think a call on the S&P is good, especially if you get it under 1430-1435. My warning is that based on last week I am going to wait until later in the week before buying in again.
    _________________________________________________


    At mid week we are above the 1450 area and while there is a possibility for new yearly highs, in the next two months, there is much more downside risk at this stage and we are approaching areas for PUTS, especially on the shorter term time frames as traders start taking profits on rallies. Anything above 1460 is acceptable for hourly put options, as economic data releases start to have a diminished effect into the end of the year. If we do see increases in sentiment and new yearly highs, wait for price activity to show signs of stalling before raising levels for PUT entries.

  5. #5
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    FTSE 100
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 5815
    Expiration = end of the month
    My Trading Recommendation



    My four words for Europe are kick, can, down and road. Worry over Spain and Greece was alleviated again by the possibility of future good news. Current headlines now have Spain asking for bail out money next month. Eventually Spain will have to buck up and take some help but for now they have avoided unwanted austerity measures once again. On the Greek front German Finance Minister Schauble says that Greece won’t default and other statements that support keeping the Euro and Eurozone intact. These two developments should help remove some resistance in the European sector and allow the European markets to focus on the recent rounds of positive news. Positive developments in the US and Asia can only help the EU. Last weeks recommendation still looks good and this week I am going to get in again even lower.
    _____________________

    The FTSE is essentially in the same boat as the S&P 500 but the levels we are seeing now give a slightly better opportunity for PUTS with the price moves seen in the previous few sessions. PUTS can be taken (on a weekly basis) all the way into the low 5900s as traders are likely to be caught off guard by the steady uptrend, mistakenly assuming that prices can continue in the same direction for prolonged periods of time.

  6. #6
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    EUR/USD
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1.2925
    Expiration = end of the month
    My Trading Recommendation



    The Euro has been trending sideways for over two weeks as the recent acts in the Eurozone drama have played out. Signs are good that despite near term fears the Euro and the EU will remain intact. There is no real solution yet but it does seem as though big brother Germany and other important players are relaxing the pressure a little which is aimed at allowing the troubled nations time to make sustainable changes. The momentum in the Euro versus the dollar is still positive and the currency pair is building support along the short term moving average. My target for the EUR/USD trade is around 1.3500.
    _____________________________

    The Euro is one of the safest long term bets in the financial markets, coming mostly as a result of the fact that misled traders are still operating under the assumption that the European Monetary Union might be allowed to unravel. Its a nonsense assertion and any drop should be viewed as a buying opportunity. For traders not currently in positions, CALLS in EUR/CHF are a safer bet than the EUR/USD given the current rally but either pair is fine. EUR/USD traders can look at 1.3060 for daily trade entries.

  7. #7
    Master Member Bogdan G's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by RCox View Post
    My target for the EUR/USD trade is around 1.3500.
    So approximately by what date do you think the EU pair will reach 1.3500?

  8. #8
    Specialist Member TAllen1429's Avatar
    1. S&P 500

    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1435
    Expiration = end of the month

    2. EUR/USD

    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1.2925
    Expiration = end of the month


    Both the above tips are looking good after the following events have occurred this week which seem bullish for riskier assets, such as the Euro and stocks.

    1. Better-than-expected company profits are dispelling fears of a disappointing corporate earnings season.

    2. The release of encouraging key economic indicators from the USA and Germany.

    3. News released from Europe revealing that both Spain and Greece are on target to satisfy their bailout objectives. Officials have also advised that both countries will almost certainly apply for international aid along with Cyprus next month.

    Successful applications are important as they would unlock the new bond-buying plan of the European Central Bank.

    4. The Fed seems on course to instigate its new stimulus plan unabated despite better-than-expected US economic data releases.

    The last two items are especially important as they are considered very bullish for both stocks and the Euro. For instance, if both were fully activated then the target of 1.3500 for the EURUSD could well be a distinct possibility.

    The new bullish tone was epitomized by the S&P 500 recording a second daily rally in a row by registering its best two-day ascent in almost one month.

    The only problem that I can see at present is whether the recommended entry points can be achieved if such bullish events continue and no pullbacks occur. Maybe some additional advice could be provided under such circumstances.

  9. #9
    Senior Member Grae's Avatar
    Most of my trading instruments are staying at support/resistance, as 'Hurricane Sandy' week brings with it the lowest volatility in 5 years. Break away from consolidation imminent. Many are not sure whether into a bull or bear run...

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