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  1. #1
    poe
    poe is offline
    Senior Member poe's Avatar

    How many live trades before actual win rate? !!!

    Hey all,

    I was checkin om the forum -no success- before makin stupid or repetitive questions.

    Can any of u gimme an estimate of how many trades do i need to realize what is my real win rate? Like how would u say is a good sample to know my win rate?? Im short term trader 10-45m ... around 50 trades till the date with a 58% win rate...

    Thanks

  2. #2
    Legendry Member willyw's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by poe View Post
    Hey all,

    I was checkin om the forum -no success- before makin stupid or repetitive questions.

    Can any of u gimme an estimate of how many trades do i need to realize what is my real win rate? Like how would u say is a good sample to know my win rate?? Im short term trader 10-45m ... around 50 trades till the date with a 58% win rate...

    Thanks
    HI Poe, there are no number of trades to realize your win rates. It varies from trader to trader, strategies to strategies. Since you have done 50 trades with a 58% win rate. Try imporving or tweaking your strategies to increase your win rates. It could sometimes takes 4 to 6 months for a newbie to test out their strategies to have a good win rate.
    Practise makes perfect

  3. Thanks Okane thanked this post
  4. #3
    Legendry Member Okane's Avatar
    I agree with Willy.

    The answer to your question is pretty much the same answer as in "how many demo trades do I need before going live". You can see mu answer there, hope it helps!
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  5. #4
    Master Member SeasaltMcFish's Avatar
    The number of trades matters big, but also your way of trading. Are you trading only 1 trade per setup, then the #trades is lower as when you enter twice or more on a setup.

    Sample size does matter, just like in poker. However, in trading, you can have some great days or weeks, followed by terrible ones, due to changing market conditions. In poker, 'market' doesn't change that much. It's the skill level of you and your opponents that matters and mostly that changes with the limit you're playing.

    I tested a lot of systems now, and have found that you need at least hundreds of 'trades' (thousands much better) on different market conditions to have a good idea of your performance.

    Some tests ran hundreds way above 60% ITM, but still went wrong later. A run of 30 trades with only 2 losses, doesn't say you have a winning system, only a winning run. Seen it and suffered because of it.

    Most important is to test several market conditions, to find weaknesses in your way of trading.

  6. #5
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    there really is no finite answer... some answers I can give are this... enough, when you feel comfortable, a lot, more is better, the more you do the better you get, never stop demo trading (I still do it) all of the above.

  7. #6
    Moderator Kolyo's Avatar
    Everybody have different answer here, but I would like to point out to the question not the answer, what does it mean Your Actual or Real Win Rate?? There is no such thing as real win rate, it is always fluctuating and you feel you are on the right track if it is sufficient to trade in profit. There will be series with better and series with worse win rate, you have to know well your numbers and your statistics and to know when to continue trade your system or your way of trading and when to stop. You won't have a constant never changing win rate like for example with 1000 trades you made 60% win rate and that will be forever you will stay with this number - there's no such thing I am sure you understand it
    "The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary." - Alexander Elder

  8. #7
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    I usually test demo account one month before start trading in real account. 100 trades per month and more.

  9. #8
    Active Member ehenderichs's Avatar
    Winrates with demo trading are not a good reflection for real-money trading. With real money comes the additional variable called 'emotion' in the equation.
    I really under estimated this and made some silly moves/mistakes driven bij emotion. Most came out ok and I was lucky but could have easily whiped out large part of my account.

  10. #9
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by ehenderichs View Post
    Winrates with demo trading are not a good reflection for real-money trading. With real money comes the additional variable called 'emotion' in the equation.
    I really under estimated this and made some silly moves/mistakes driven bij emotion. Most came out ok and I was lucky but could have easily whiped out large part of my account.
    this is good to point out, big difference.

  11. #10
    poe
    poe is offline
    Senior Member poe's Avatar
    i was about to make a big post... but i can only thank u all for the answers...

    I do understand now that the sample gotta be enormous and theres always variance in the way... so win rate can easily ranging sometimes... my approach atm is to focus on maximise profits and minimise losses by controlling my daily win rate. hope i can keep the pace i have till now... im happy with what im doing, tho some of it is still luck... i have tilted a couple of times taking trades with 5% of my bankroll also yesterday traded like 30 times which means i have to work very hard on my mindset....

    i thank u all again for the replies ...

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