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  1. #11
    Specialist Member Option_Banque's Avatar


    U.S Manufacturing Gauge Swings Into Contraction – Call Options Suggested On EURUSD

    EURUSD skyrocketed to three-day high at above $1.12000, after a report from the Institute of Supply Management showed U.S. factory activity in August contracted for the first time since February. The drop in new orders and production dragged the index down by 3.2 percentage points to a reading of 49.4.

    Disappointing manufacturing number is believed to weaken the case of a rate hike later this month. According to the CME Group’s Fed Watch tool, there is only 24 percent chance of a hike in September, down from 30 percent before the ISM data was released, while the odds for a hike in December fell to 53.6 percent from 57.2 percent.

    Trade suggestion
    Buy Digital Call Option from 1.12000 to 1.12300 valid until 21:00 September 01, 2016

  2. #12
    Specialist Member Option_Banque's Avatar
    Can GBPUSD Reach The Key 1.33000? Cautiousness Ahead Of NFP May Hold The Market Back

    The pound reached a one-week high against the U.S dollar on Thursday after a report from the Markit Institute showed that the manufacturing sector in Britain recovered from a post-Brexit slump. The U.K economy is appearing to be more resilient than what had been anticipated after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union in June.

    The Sterling surged more than 100 pips to $1.32657 following the news that the U.K Purchasing Managers Index jumped considerably in August to a level of 53.3, swinging back into expansion territory. After tumbling to a three-year low of 48.3 in July, the PMI carved out significant gains to reach a 10-month high in August, easily knocking down economists’ forecasts.
    Although manufacturing only accounts for about 10% of Britain’s economy, the sharp rebound reported today could nudge the Bank of England to reconsider the need to cut rates further. The BOE has forecast no growth in the economy for the second half of 2016 as a result of the Brexit vote. Further, it has indicated readiness to employ more stimulus measures including further slashing record-low interest rates even further.

    To obtain a full picture of the near-term impact of the Brexit vote on the whole economy, the markets will need to wait for the release of the services PMI, which is due on Monday. If the index for the service sector (which covers more than half of the UK economy) confirms that the economy is performing better than initially expected, a rate cut by the BOE in November may no longer be expected/needed. The Pound, in turn, will benefit from such a development.

    In the U.S, data published today was in line with forecasts and exerted almost no impact on the dollar. Investors are paying a lot of attention to the NFP report out tomorrow. The report is being considered a key factor in helping the market assess the possibility of a rate increase at the Fed’s late-September meeting.



    GBPUSD has successfully breached the descending trend line after the sharp up move which took it back to near the recent highs around the 1.32620 level. The pair failed to climb higher from this level last week and is attempting to test the major threshold at 1.33000. The RSI has surged higher and is nearing overbought levels. Although the ADX index is pointing up, the +DI line is heading down, showing a weakening bull. We expect to see a period of consolidation before the pair can fly higher.

    Trade suggestion
    Buy Digital Call option from 1.32700 to 1.33000 valid until 21:00 GMT September 01, 2016

  3. #13
    Specialist Member Option_Banque's Avatar


    Daily Report on September 02, 2016

    Asian markets were flat on Friday as investors are nervously waiting for the U.S Non-farm Payrolls report, which is due later in day. Overnight, U.S shares fluctuated in a wide range, but finished mostly higher, with advances in the tech sector outweighing disappointing factory activity data and lower oil prices. The Dow Jones rose 0.1 percent to 18,419.3, the S&P500 was almost unchanged at 2,170.86, and the Nasdaq100 added 0.27 percent, to finish at 5,227.21.

    Crude prices extended their losses, heading for the worst weekly slump since mid-January. Declining on worries over a supply glut, WTI crude settled down 3.5 percent at $43.16 a barrel, while Brent settled 3.1 percent lower at $45.45. The end of the U.S. driving season and the prospects of a global glut due to the recent buildup in U.S inventories have exerted downward pressure on oil prices.

    A report from the Institute of Supply Management reported that U.S. factory activity in August contracted for the first time since February. The drop in new orders and production dragged the index down by 3.2 percentage points to a reading of 49.4.

    However, solid performance in the labor market which has spurred hawkish comments from some Fed officials in recent weeks, probably could still act as a valid reason for a rate hike this month. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester on Thursday said that the U.S. labor market is at full strength and the Federal Reserve needs to embark on a path of gradual interest rate increases.



    Technical

    EURAUD



    Fig: EURAUD H4 Technical Chart

    Failing to breaking out the 38.2% retracement at 1.48779, EURAUD is moving in sideways fashion, below this level. Recently, the pair has been locked between the 50-period moving average and the resistance at 1.48500. Both buyers and sellers are not gathering enough momentum to define a clear direction within the market. As the price is heading towards a test of the MA20, the pair is expected to witness a bounce back.

    Trade suggestion

    Buy Digital Call Option from 1.48000 to 1.48500 valid until 20:00 GMT September 02, 2016



    GBPCAD



    Fig: GBPCAD D1 Technical Chart

    GBPCAD bounced back from the low at 1.66068 and is still retaining the bullish momentum to jump higher. The pair is highly likely to retest the high at 1.75441 before attempting a breach of the near term resistance at 1.76215 to complete the double-bottom pattern. The prices have moved past both the long-term and short-term MAs, while the RSI (14) has only surged to 60.91. There is still room for further advances.

    Trade suggestion

    Buy Digital Call Option from 1.73900 to 1.75441 valid until 20:00 GMT September 02, 2016



    USDCHF



    Fig: USDCHF H4 Technical Chart

    USDCHF peeked beyond the 0.98420 handle yesterday but could not sustain the up-move and had to fall back to trade under this level. The pair has turned its past resistance (purple line) into a new support zone and is crawling along this boundary. The pair is anticipated to inch up further as the market has fallen into the oversold zone and is signaling a bounce back.

    Trade suggestion

    Buy Digital Call Option from 0.98050 to 0.98420 valid until 20:00 GMT September 02, 2016



    WTI



    Fig: WTI D1 Technical Chart

    The slump in the WTI crude prices has not yet come to an end as the convergence between the two MAs is signaling further declines in the commodity. The RSI (14) has dipped to 40.39, consolidating the downtrend. A short-term target that the market could aim for would be the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at around 41.83.

    Trade suggestion

    Buy Digital Put Option from 43.30 to 42.50 valid until 20:00 GMT September 02, 2016



    SUGAR



    Fig: SUGAR H4 Technical Chart

    Sugar pulled back after nose-diving steeply yesterday. The commodity easily broke through both the short-term MA and the long-term MA from above and is officially under the downward pressure created by these two MAs. The bear is prevailing in the market and has pushed the RSI index lower to 35.32.

    Trade suggestion

    Buy Digital Put Option from 19.53 to 19.15 valid until 20:00 GMT September 02, 2016



    EUROSTOXX50



    Fig: EURO50 H4 Technical Chart

    Since the early part of this week, the EuroStoxx50 index has surpassed the 3015.00 resistance – the level had restrained the index’s rally for 2 weeks before the breakout. The Euro50 is trading in a new trading channel between 3015.00 – the old resistance which becomes the new support, and the upper boundary at 3049.45. With the support from two MAs placed below the price action, and a higher-than-average RSI, the index is forecast to attempt a retest of yesterday’s high at 3052.70.

    Trade suggestion

    Buy Digital Call Option from 3036.50 to 3052.70 valid until 20:00 GMT September 02, 2016

  4. #14
    Specialist Member Option_Banque's Avatar
    Caution Holds USDCAD Around Key Level 1.31000 – How To Trade The USDCAD From Here?

    USDCAD has been nearly flat over the past three days, against the backdrop of all major markets bracing for the monthly jobs report which is due for release later on Friday. Disappointing factory activity data from the U.S yesterday, helped offset the effect of the sharp decline in crude prices on the CAD, easing the divergence between two currencies which has pushed the pair up nearly 3 percent in the past couple of weeks.

    The Canadian dollar has been weakened recently due to renewed concerns over the global oil surplus, as well as a train of negative economic data from the Canadian economy.

    Regardless of recent positive signals showing the good-will of the world’s major producers and exporters to cooperate and stabilize the oil market, the fear over U.S producers coming back to benefit from higher prices has cast downward pressure on oil prices. U.K benchmark Brent crude fell back to below $46 per barrel while U.S WTI crude prices also slumped to below $43 per barrel.

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday indicated that domestic crude inventories rose by 2.3 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 26, while economists had forecast the report to show an increase of only 1.1 million barrels. Last week’s buildup has been the fifth jump in the last 6 weeks. The rise in inventories, after a period of decreases, is indicating that more U.S supply is pouring into an already imbalanced market

    In an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that he expected that an output freeze deal could be reached at an informal meeting later this month in Algeria. The president stated that “it was the right decision for world energy.” In spite of calling on key oil-producing countries to cap output together, Putin argued that Iran could be granted an exemption and any agreement could be reached with the Saudi side, complimenting Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, as “a very reliable partner”.

    On Friday, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said that he was optimistic about producers moving to a common position on oil production. “We are beginning to have a meeting of the minds but it is a work in progress and we’ll see what happens in the meeting in Algeria. And I’m hopefully optimistic,” he told reporters.

    Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other non-OPEC oil exporters are due to meet on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum late in September, and are expected to set a new celling on oil output.

    In terms of economic data which is the second factor going against the CAD, Canadian Trade Balance is the latest data release being watched. It is set for release at the opening of the U.S session, and is forecast to show a deficit of 3.2 million dollars, while Canadian Labor Productivity for second quarter probably rose 0.2% compared to the June period. Recent data releases have painted a gloomy picture regarding the prospects of the commodity-based economy. Recent reports from Statistics Canada indicated that retail sales fell 0.1 percent in June while Core retail sales that strip out automobiles reported an even worse performance – reporting a 0.8 percent contraction.

    The drop in energy prices caused prices to fall by 0.2 percent in July compared to June. According to Statistics Canada, domestic annual inflation slowed to 1.3 percent last month, led by a 14% slump in gasoline prices in July from a year ago.

    On the other hand, the U.S dollar looks set to benefit from the second rate hike since December 2015 despite much-worse-than-expected manufacturing data published on Thursday. A report from the Institute of Supply Management reported that U.S. factory activity in August contracted for the first time since February. The drop in new orders and production dragged the index down by 3.2 percentage points to a reading of 49.4.

    However, solid performance in the labor market which has spurred hawkish comments from some Fed officials in recent weeks, probably could still act as a valid reason for a rate hike this month. Therefore, the NFP report out later today is being closely watched and is being considered a key factor in helping the market assess the possibility of a rate increase at the Fed’s late-September meeting.



    Fig: USDCAD D1 technical chart
    As can be seen from the stochastic chart, the market has been remained in the overbought zone for almost a week and the bull seems to be getting exhausted as it has not been able to support prices tick higher for the last three days. Despite having been supported by the two MAs placed below the price action, cautious sentiment has pinned the price around the 1.31000 psychological level. We may need a real push from the fundamental side to define a clear direction for the market.

    Trade suggestion (based on expectation of positive NFP)
    Buy Digital Call Option from 1.31000 to 1.314000 valid until 20:00 September 02, 2016

  5. #15
    Specialist Member Option_Banque's Avatar
    Caution Holds USDCAD Around Key Level 1.31000 – How To Trade The USDCAD From Here?

    USDCAD has been nearly flat over the past three days, against the backdrop of all major markets bracing for the monthly jobs report which is due for release later on Friday. Disappointing factory activity data from the U.S yesterday, helped offset the effect of the sharp decline in crude prices on the CAD, easing the divergence between two currencies which has pushed the pair up nearly 3 percent in the past couple of weeks.

    The Canadian dollar has been weakened recently due to renewed concerns over the global oil surplus, as well as a train of negative economic data from the Canadian economy.

    Regardless of recent positive signals showing the good-will of the world’s major producers and exporters to cooperate and stabilize the oil market, the fear over U.S producers coming back to benefit from higher prices has cast downward pressure on oil prices. U.K benchmark Brent crude fell back to below $46 per barrel while U.S WTI crude prices also slumped to below $43 per barrel.

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday indicated that domestic crude inventories rose by 2.3 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 26, while economists had forecast the report to show an increase of only 1.1 million barrels. Last week’s buildup has been the fifth jump in the last 6 weeks. The rise in inventories, after a period of decreases, is indicating that more U.S supply is pouring into an already imbalanced market

    In an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that he expected that an output freeze deal could be reached at an informal meeting later this month in Algeria. The president stated that “it was the right decision for world energy.” In spite of calling on key oil-producing countries to cap output together, Putin argued that Iran could be granted an exemption and any agreement could be reached with the Saudi side, complimenting Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, as “a very reliable partner”.

    On Friday, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said that he was optimistic about producers moving to a common position on oil production. “We are beginning to have a meeting of the minds but it is a work in progress and we’ll see what happens in the meeting in Algeria. And I’m hopefully optimistic,” he told reporters.

    Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other non-OPEC oil exporters are due to meet on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum late in September, and are expected to set a new celling on oil output.

    In terms of economic data which is the second factor going against the CAD, Canadian Trade Balance is the latest data release being watched. It is set for release at the opening of the U.S session, and is forecast to show a deficit of 3.2 million dollars, while Canadian Labor Productivity for second quarter probably rose 0.2% compared to the June period. Recent data releases have painted a gloomy picture regarding the prospects of the commodity-based economy. Recent reports from Statistics Canada indicated that retail sales fell 0.1 percent in June while Core retail sales that strip out automobiles reported an even worse performance – reporting a 0.8 percent contraction.

    The drop in energy prices caused prices to fall by 0.2 percent in July compared to June. According to Statistics Canada, domestic annual inflation slowed to 1.3 percent last month, led by a 14% slump in gasoline prices in July from a year ago.

    On the other hand, the U.S dollar looks set to benefit from the second rate hike since December 2015 despite much-worse-than-expected manufacturing data published on Thursday. A report from the Institute of Supply Management reported that U.S. factory activity in August contracted for the first time since February. The drop in new orders and production dragged the index down by 3.2 percentage points to a reading of 49.4.

    However, solid performance in the labor market which has spurred hawkish comments from some Fed officials in recent weeks, probably could still act as a valid reason for a rate hike this month. Therefore, the NFP report out later today is being closely watched and is being considered a key factor in helping the market assess the possibility of a rate increase at the Fed’s late-September meeting.



    As can be seen from the stochastic chart, the market has been remained in the overbought zone for almost a week and the bull seems to be getting exhausted as it has not been able to support prices tick higher for the last three days. Despite having been supported by the two MAs placed below the price action, cautious sentiment has pinned the price around the 1.31000 psychological level. We may need a real push from the fundamental side to define a clear direction for the market.

    Trade suggestion (based on expectation of positive NFP)
    Buy Digital Call Option from 1.31000 to 1.314000 valid until 20:00 September 02, 2016

  6. #16
    Specialist Member Option_Banque's Avatar

    SP500 Trading Signal On September 02, 2016

    Buy Digital Call Option from 2179.00 to 2184.00 valid until 21:00 GMT September 02, 2016

  7. #17
    Specialist Member Option_Banque's Avatar


    Gold Gains On Smaller-Than-Expected NFP – But Be Careful, September Hike Has Not Been Off The Table

    Gold traded higher on Friday, supported by a weakening U.S dollar. Following a 255,000 gain in July that bulldozed all forecasts, the U.S Labor Department slightly disappointed the financial markets with only 151,000 rise in the headline non-farm payrolls number for August. The result missed analysts’ estimate of an 180,000 jobs increase last month.

    Average hourly earnings rose by 0.1% to $25.73, falling shy of expectations, while the participation rate and unemployment rate were unchanged at 62.8 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively. Regardless of a weaker-than-expected monthly jobs report, the possibility of an interest rate hike later this month has not been completely ruled out as August payrolls are usually affected by seasonal factors in terms of vacation period and school calendars.

    Given the labor market near full employment, Yellen has said the economy needs to create just under 100,000 jobs a month to keep up with population growth. According to CME Group’s Fed Watch tool, the odds of a Fed move in September lowered to 21% after the jobs report, while the possibility of a change in December posted at 43.6 percent.

    Trade suggestion
    Buy Digital Put Option from 1325.00 to 1322.00 valid until 21:00 September 02, 2016

  8. #18
    Specialist Member Option_Banque's Avatar


    Daily Report on September 05, 2016

    Asian stocks took their cue from the rally in U.S shares on Friday, after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs reduced the chances of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this month. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 1.3% in early trade. Japan's Nikkei stock index surged 1 percent to three-month highs while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed to its highest in a year.

    The Caixin survey published by Markit on Monday reported that China’s services purchasing managers' index (PMI) picked up to 52.1 in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, from 51.7 in July. Growth in the service sector was powered by modest gains in new orders and a stable labor market. Despite being in line with expectations, the rate of expansion remained well below the average and was considered as “relatively underwhelming".

    Speaking at the Kyodo News event, in Tokyo on Monday, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated that “there is ample room for further monetary easing ... and other new ideas should not be off the table,". Further cuts in interest rates and increased purchases of assets are expected to be made full use of by the BOJ to achieve the policy mandate of bringing inflation closer towards the target of 2%, at the earliest possible.

    Crude prices continued to slump in the Asian trading session as concerns over a supply glut are mounting after news from a Yemeni industry official said the country’s 150,000 barrels-per-day Aden oil refinery resumed operations on Sunday. The refinery had previously been shut down for more than a year as the conflict in the country worsened.

    With the US Markets closed in observance of the Labour Day holiday in the US, the markets are expected to be relatively quiet and thin today.



    Technicals

    EURUSD
    EURUSD seemingly could not stand the heat of the 50-period moving average and has been moving lower after coming up against this moving resistance. The short-term MA has just crossed over the long-term MA from above, signaling a reversal into a downtrend. In the stochastic chart, the %K line has pulled back from the overbought area and is about to cross the %D line from above.

    Trade suggestion

    Buy Digital Put Option from 1.11685 to 1.11300 valid until 20:00 GMT September 05, 2016



    NZDUSD
    NZDUSD is on course to retest the major resistance at 0.73420 after peeking through this level on Friday. The pair could not retain the bullish momentum to surge above this handle and pulled back to hit the support at 0.72639. Having been supported by the two moving averages placed below the price action, the New Zealand dollar has been pushing to get into rally mode. Nevertheless, the price is expected to give up the gains once more, and retreat from the resistance.

    Trade suggestion

    Buy Digital Put Option from 0.73420 to 0.72940 valid until 20:00 GMT September 05, 2016



    AUDNZD
    AUDNZD resumed its slide after some corrective moves from the one-month low at 1.03140. The pair fell back from the resistance at 1.03950 – the level that forced the price to reverse lower on Thursday. The market has remained in a bearish setup for almost a month and is expected to extend the downtrend as the RSI index is still pointing downwards, and is still below the 50 line.

    Trade suggestion

    Buy Digital Put Option from 1.03530 to 1.03140 valid until 20:00 GMT September 05, 2016



    SILVER
    Silver has been skidding since the market open on Monday following a sharp surge that boosted the grey metal to surpass the 23.6% retracement at 19.369. Ongoing losses are a result of a correction that may last sometime, as can be seen from the indicators. The market has entered the overbought zone. With the MA20 crossing the MA50 from below, Silver could reattempt a surge after a test of the support at 19.200

    Trade suggestion

    Buy Digital Call Option from 19.200 to 19.430 valid until 20:00 GMT September 05, 2016



    BRENT
    Brent crude descended from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, after the price came up against two solid hurdles at the same time. Coupled with the resistance at the 23.6% level, the MA20 is another zone of resistance that restrained the price action and sent the market back down. The bear is overwhelming in the market currently, which is further consolidated by two MAs placed above the price action.

    Trade suggestion

    Sell Stop at 46.40, Take profit at 45.50, Stop loss at 47.00

    Buy Digital Put Option from 46.40 to 45.50 valid until 20:00 GMT September 05, 2016



    FTSE
    FTSE100 index victoriously broke out of the descending price channel on Friday, and is comfortably trading around two-week highs at 6899.90. While the RSI index is moving near the overbought zone, the short-term MA is much likely to penetrate the long-term MA from below. The index is anticipated to advance higher towards the record high at 6959.21, with both MA's now placed below the price action.

    Trade suggestion

    Buy Digital Call Option from 6900.00 to 6959.21 valid until 20:00 GMT September 05, 2016

  9. #19
    Specialist Member Option_Banque's Avatar


    GBPAUD Trading Signal On September 05, 2016
    Buy Digital Call Option from 1.75700 to 1.76000 valid until 21:00 GMT September 02, 2016

  10. #20
    Specialist Member Option_Banque's Avatar
    EURGBP Sinks After U.K Service Data – EU Retail Sales Prevent A Big Selloff

    Sterling advanced for a fifth consecutive day versus the euro, extending the EURGBP’s string of losses to 9 out of last 11 sessions, when the the pair finished lower, after a series of reports in the past few weeks indicating that economic damage to the UK, resulting from the June 23 referendum may not be as serious as initially anticipated. Meanwhile, the euro is under the spotlight with the ECB’s policy meeting in focus. No changes are expected to be made this Thursday, but more dovish statements from President Draghi may be inevitable, causing further concerns about the state of the EU economy.

    Markit surveys last week on the manufacturing and construction sectors reported a much better than expected performance in August. Even though construction PMI remained below 50, the index has soared every passing month. U.K manufacturing data released last Thursday reported that manufacturing performance swung back into an expansion with factory activity growing at the fastest pace in 10 months.

    Extending the convincing evidence of a jump in the U.K economy, the Markit Institute on Monday said that the country’s service sector PMI increased to 52.9 – a record month on month gain, since the survey began 20 years ago. The gauge of U.K services reported a sharp rebound into expansion territory. This is increasingly significant as the services sector is the largest sub-section of the UK economy. The services sector had reported a contraction in activity in July, and hinted at a possible need for the Bank of England to consider the need for further stimulus this year.

    According to the report by the research group, new work rose to a four-month high thanks to improving export sales fueled by a weak pound, stronger domestic tourism and returning confidence. The report also showed mounting inflationary pressure as a result of the slump in the pound and rising fuel and labor costs. In response to the fact that import costs accelerated to 33-month high in August, service providers had to raise prices at the sharpest rate since January 2014.

    On the other hand, the euro-area economy has been reporting a slow down. The final Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index edged down to 19-month low at 52.9 in August. The composite gauge for both manufacturing and services sectors(The composite PMI is a combined PMI for both the services and the manufacturing sectors) continued to point to an expansion in August, albeit falling shy of earlier estimates, due to a weaker rate of growth in Germany – the largest economy of the 28-member bloc.

    However, the euro recovered the losses suffered early in the session, after EU statistics office Eurostat announced that Euro zone retail sales rose more than expected in July. The proxy for household spending posted the largest monthly increase since February 2015, rising 1.1 percent compared to June and advanced 2.9% on a year-on-year basis, doing much better than analyst expectations.

    Markets are closely eyeing the policy meeting of The European Central Bank and the press conference by President Draghi which is due right after the meeting on Thursday. With inflation stuck near zero and showing no signs of coming close to the central bank’s target of 2%, economists are pricing in the possibility that the ECB will extend the asset-buying program beyond its current end-date of March 2017 and raise the current ceiling of 1.7 trillion euros ($1.9 trillion).

    EURGBP has been on a slide from a three-year high at 0.87241, that was reached in early August. The market seems to be headed towards the 23.6% retracement level at 0.83146 after penetrating both the moving averages from above last week. The bear has maintained its position and consolidated it further with increasing momentum. While the RSI has dipped to 38.34, the ADX index has soared to a level of 47.72. The +DI line is widening its gap with the –DI line, suggesting further downward movement in the pair.

    Trade suggestion
    Buy Digital Put Option from 0.83700 to 0.83510 valid until 20:00 September 05, 2016

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