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  1. #1
    Active Member denfion's Avatar

    Trading diary of Dennis !!!

    Hello everyone, finally I have made it to start my diary here. Before I start to post my current trading history, let me show you my old history first so that everyone can learn from my mistake and avoid them. That will save you lots of time to try to understand them and also improve your knowledge.

    For anyone who doesn't know me, please go to the "Introduce yourself" section in the forum and check out my post.

    Please do not use the following strategy as my purpose to show it is just to explain how bad it is.

    The first strategy that I have encountered with was the one from "realbinaryoptionsreviews.com". The author did explain something technical about Bollinger band, RSI, Stoch, and candlestick. The strategy was real simple and can be used on any currency pair: When you see a bullish candle that closed above the top Bollinger band, RSI and Stoch are both OB, place your PUT trade at the last second when that candle closed with expiry time of 5 mins, same strat applies to CALL when everything is opposite.

    The following chart is an example only.
    Click image for larger version.

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    But after several weeks of back testing, I have found out that this was just like gambling, it works sometimes, it doesn't work sometime. It did work for roughly two months (with some loses of course, but the winning rate was still profitable), until the third month, basically everything went south. Overbought or Oversold with 3 indicators were meaning nothing and prices were just keep going with the trend. At that time I realised that indicators were meaningless so I gave them up completely.

    The following chart is an example only.
    Click image for larger version.

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    So I have learnt my mistakes from the above experience: Indicators are not reliable no matter how many of them you are using, especially if you don't understand them and don't know how to use them properly.
    Last edited by denfion; 03-12-2016 at 10:22 PM.

  2. #2
    Active Member denfion's Avatar
    Since I realised that trend may continue eventhough the indicators are telling you that price retracement is very likely to happen, I have decided to trade with the trend. I have given up all the indicators except Bollinger Band, and the strategy is whenever I see a strong trend, once the price come back to the middle of Bollinger band, I place a trade to follow the trend.

    Once again please do not following this strategy. It is for demonstration only.

    The following chart is an example only.
    Click image for larger version.

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    Same as my old strategy, it worked for a while, and it eventually stop working.
    The following chart is an example only.
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    At that time, I have almost completely given up BO until I found out a video from Okane. He explained about price action, and I tried to study more. Next post I will post my more recent trade by using Okane's strategy and how grateful I am when I understand more about price action, support and resistant, time frame, and the market.
    Last edited by denfion; 03-16-2016 at 11:56 PM.

  3. #3
    Active Member denfion's Avatar
    I don't understand why the attachments are so small.....

    I will need to find a way to correct it, perhaps tomorrow morning...

    I think I have fixed it. Time for new update..
    Last edited by denfion; 03-12-2016 at 10:26 PM.

  4. #4
    Active Member denfion's Avatar
    Ok, finally this was my first attempt to trade by using support and resistant. My choice of pair is EURUSD. I have followed the instruction from Okane and plot the support and resistant lines in those areas with the thickest price action, and also to the areas where price has touched a few times and being rejected. I started from daily chart and H4, and then I adjusted the line to the nearest price in lower time frame until M1. I set the line to the exact price where the candles has touched twice in the 1 minute chart so that higher chance the price will touch the same price in the future where I can place my trade.

    I have basically started to trade like this from two weeks ago, and It has been working like a charm!! I can see the price would be rejected very near the price or sometimes crossed the price a bit and started to reverse. I followed with the Stoch indicators and tried to wait until all M1, M5, M15 and M30 are all in OB/OS zone. But I do notice sometime price will be rejected from the line even though M1 and M5 are in the OB/OS zone only. But I tried to stick with the rules as I know if there are only 2 TF in over zone, there is a bigger change the price will continue its current trend since the buyer/seller may keep pushing when the price is not there yet, which means a higher possibility the price will try to get to the next S/R line.

    The following charts are trying to demonstrate what I have been doing 2 weeks ago, so please ignore the actual date as I'm using the latest chart to do rather than the one from 2 weeks ago. But the way how I do it is the same. I only locate the areas from daily and H4 only, and I feel that from H1 downwards the area will be less accurate with the lower volume. So I'm only doing adjustment of the lines from H1 to M1.

    Click image for larger version.

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    However, i started to notice a problem since last week which is the long waiting time for an entry. Sometimes I have to wait for a day or more and the price was not getting near the line and the next morning the price would have crossed the line already and I have to wait for it to get near the next line.

    I did attempt to set more lines by using lower time frames such as H1 and M30, but I noticed that the price will cut right through it like butter and not coming back even though all four TF are in the over zone.

    Therefore I started to observe not just one, but three currencies pairs in order to get more chance. They are AUDUSD, NZDUSD. I did try to play with AUDJPY but I found out that it is very unstable. Basically you may notice one day the market is ranging and the next day it will cross 3 S/R lines at once without any rejection.

    Next post I will explain another problem that I have faced and my discovery from Ronnel's study.

  5. #5
    Active Member denfion's Avatar
    The problem that I'm currently facing when using price action is that it is very hard to tell if the price will break through it or it will retrace. I have a perfect example today when trading AUDUSD. I have plotted the daily resistant line as 0.75817 which was the highest price on last Friday, and from the chart I can see the price retraced back down once it has touched the price on Friday, so I'm guessing even though if people want to push the price up, I should still be able to catch a 10 or 15 mins retracement before price goes up again. However what happened is that the price didn't retrace, instead it was floating around the line before it went up again, even though all of my TF were all overbought at that time, M1-H1.

    This the the daily resistant line on the M5 chart, I have adjusted it to the recent price on last Friday and you can see the price has been touched twice.
    Click image for larger version.

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    This is the daily chart which shows the highest price of last Friday
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    You may wonder and say from the chart if you have a 10 mins or 15 mins expiry, you would still have won if I entered my trade once the line has been touched, but my broker do not provide a fixed expiry time frame which means if I entered my trade there, the expiry would be roughly 11 mins left, so it would be a loosing trade.

    Please forgive my stupidity if there are things that I have done wrong in above.. everyday is my learning day. After my lost, I went back to recheck everything and tried to figure out if I have done anything wrong, and I guess I have found it. I should not draw my daily line at where the highest price were, as the Friday candle was still going up and there was no price action there. I should go back to last year and find the nearest daily support line which may act as resistant line today. Therefore I went back and plotted a new line.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails 14.3.16 AUDUSD2.jpg

  6. #6
    Active Member denfion's Avatar
    This is the new line that I have plotted, now lets see what will happen when the price reached here.
    Click image for larger version.

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  7. #7
    Active Member denfion's Avatar
    I have been practicing about moving trend lines, moving support and resistant lines, and candlestick analysis, this is the trade that I took and ITM. The pair is EURUSD. Honestly I should not take it because the break out bullish candle is not a full bullish one, and I can still see the wick on top, but I still want to try. Entered at the closed candle with the arrow with 10 mins expiry as a Call. lucky win as the 15 mins candle will be a lost one.

    Click image for larger version.

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    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails MetaTrader 4.jpg
    Last edited by denfion; 03-14-2016 at 05:12 AM.

  8. #8
    Veteran Member Ronnel's Avatar
    Hi Dennis!
    Nice to see that you have started your trading diary.
    I'll say it straight and honest, the strategy that you got from your broker is not bad at all. This may sound harsh and very straight but if I may say that the problem is with you. Indies only follow or interpret how Price have moved and it is on the trader's part how well he interprets the data.

    Another thing I noticed is that you seem to have too much indicators on your charts. My suggestion is that you study more and we'll be there to assist you whenever we can.
    Last edited by Ronnel; 03-14-2016 at 06:17 AM.

  9. #9
    Active Member denfion's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Ronnel View Post
    Hi Dennis!
    Nice to see that you have started your trading diary.
    I'll say it straight and honest, the strategy that you got from your broker is not bad at all. This may sound harsh and very straight but if I may say that the problem is with you. Indies only follow or interpret how Price have moved and it is on the trader's part how well he interprets the data.

    Another thing I noticed is that you seem to have too much indicators on your charts. My suggestion is that you study more and we'll be there to assist you whenever we can.
    Thanks Ronnel. The first strategy was not from the broker, and it was from an independent person who was trying to develop a strategy to trade by using indicators. I don't trust the indicators too much and I would like to learn more and feel the price movement.

    I have already removed those unnecessary indicators to clear things up. Now I just need to practice and learn more about S/R and price action !!

  10. #10
    Rookie Member gkb100's Avatar
    Great start to your diary. Please keep them coming as they act as tutorial for newbies like me.

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