ďThe moral of the story is that you donít know, I donít know, nobody knows where price will go. Anybody who does claim to know either doesnít understand how markets work, is selling something, or is delusional.Ē Ė Chris Tate

Why is there so much pretense among those who claim to have mastered trading?

Answer: Many experts tend to think they know what the markets will be doing next. While weíve tools that can help us in doing this, we can never be sure, because we donít really know the future. There are many people whoíre overconfident when they get hold of a new trading system or an analytical tool. They think theyíre wizards, but theyíre not.

There are traders who talk with overconfidence, behaving as though they were in total control of the markets. But when they face the real battle, they flounder.

One woman was trained by a popular Forex trading institute in her country. After the training, she still experienced frustrating challenges. When she met me, she told me that the guys who trained her didnít know anything about trading.

The woman was wrong (though I didnít tell her so). The guys who trained her have lots of knowledgeÖ only that they canít predict the future. I also donít know anything because I canít predict the future.

That means official/senior/market analysts donít know the future. What we do is best called educated guesses. Trading experts donít know the future, yet they make profits. Itís better then to let our clients/trainees know that we donít know what the price will do next, but we can survive without knowing that. Thatís better than giving people a false impression that we can accurately predict the markets: this would make them hate us when they find out we canít.

For instance, experts agree that itís better to select trending instruments when considering a trade. An instrument thatís trending ought to continue doing so. Choosing a trendless instrument may be suicidal (unless oneís a scalper) because both buyers and sellers might lose. A trendless market may continue to be trendless. But one may enter a trending market and it would then start consolidating; whereas a consolidating market might start a serious trending movement. In reality we donít know what may happen next.

Like trading skeptics, many whoíve suffered losses or tragedy are unable to find satisfying answers to the questions below. Some become apathetic towards trading. Others maynít entirely quit trading, but they become inactive.

Itís not that those whoíre apathetic or inactive are completely unfamiliar with secrets of trading success. On the contrary, their experience with the so-called experts is often what pushes them towards apathy. Many liars who pose as successful traders, they feel, have failed to answer tough questions in trading. What kind of questions? Paradoxically, theyíre always the same that people who claim to be experts struggle with.

Many members of the public believe that the fact that over 90% of traders lose proves that success in impossible. Others, though, who have come to understand why over 90% of traders lose, are confident that success is possible.

Why is trading so difficult?

Answer: As itís being mentioned in the subheading, ďPEOPLE ARENíT WHAT THEY CLAIM TO BE,Ē what makes trading appear very difficult is the fact that the market can never be predicted. When we predict, weíre sometimes wrong or right. However, having an impression that the market can be predicted is the single most important reason why most traders end of getting frustrated. No matter the analytical method you use (Monte Carlo, Neural Networks, Horology, robots, Gann, news, Ichimoku, etc), you canít predict the future. Your frustration will continue as long as you think you can predict the market. Once you admit you canít do this, your frustration ends, because youíve aligned yourself with the reality in the market.

What benefit can I get from trading?

Answer: Freedom. Freedom is everything. You master your financial destiny, growing richer and richer gradually. Very soon, youíll realize that trading is the best vehicle for financial freedom; plus the greatest game on earth. Sadly, many people donít believe this fact.

How can I experience permanent success in the markets?

Answer: Youíll attain permanent success once you devise a way to make money in the market without being able to predict the market Ė without knowing what the market will do next. This kind of strategy isnít hard to devise. Youíll then see each new trade as a potential loser until youíre proven otherwise. This mindset would enable you to activate stops and use a small position size. Youíll know trading is simply a game of probability and with a good RRR, the odds would eventually come in you favor. This is whatís called positive expectancy. With this simple approach, youíll no longer see trading as difficult. More importantly, youíll attain permanent success without the ability to know the future, which begins from your mind.

If you donít know those whoíre successful in trading, there are many of them and I know some of them.

This piece is ended by the quote below:

ďYour trading system has a set of rules. When you donít follow the rules, itís a mistake. And if you donít have rules, then everything you are doing is a mistake. Even with rules, most traders probably trade somewhere below 80% efficiency. When you make two mistakes in ten trades, you are at 80% efficiency and that may be a low enough level to destroy the positive expectancy of a system. Below 80% will turn a winning system into a losing system. Rather than acknowledge their mistakes, however, most people just blame the markets or decide their system is no good. But until you acknowledge your mistakes, you are not being responsible for them and you cannot fix them.Ē Ė Dr. Van K. Tharp (Source: Vantharp.com)