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  1. #1
    Senior Member analyst75's Avatar

    Whether I Win Or Lose A Trade… !!!

    A HEART-TO-HEART TALK

    Experience is the best teacher. Negativity in trading is compared to temporary setbacks in real life: it exists so that you can become a better trader. Losing streaks are equivalent of transient disappointments that celebrities face in their careers. They simply enable you to become an efficient risk manager. There are many life examples that can be compared to trading. Do you know that you need to be determined enough to surmount any challenges you might encounter in the markes?. Uncertainty will forever be our source of wealth! Do you know that you need to believe in yourself? You’re never doomed to failure in the markets. You just need to work hard enough until you reach the stage of trading effortlessly (after your past errors have turned you into a general of the financial markets). Can you do this? Do you agree with me? If you can, your dreams would be achieved ultimately.

    “You can’t change what you can’t face and you can’t face what you don’t know.” — Dr. Woody Johnson

    Whether I win or lose a trade, trading is my profession and it’s what I like to do. Great people have always faced challenges and failures – yet they become great. The past failures and challenges in the markets are never a deterrent to me. Markets wizards today were novices in the past. The road to success is bumpy indeed. Nevertheless, the resplendent reward of consistent success makes the pain of the past pale into insignificance. Whenever I visualize the joy of success, the glory of breakthrough, the pleasure of financial freedom, the luxury of attainment of goals – the benefits in trading are worth the sacrifices inherent in it. I’ll continue to move on.

    Whether I win or I lose a trade, I’m still a trader and I’ll be a trader for as long as I live. A balanced trading life doesn’t preclude a normal person from having fun from other aspects of life. Trading is a holistic way of life: it’s a journey to self discovery. A successful trader is someone who’s won one of the life’s most crucial battles. Successful traders worldwide, I salute you! You’re heroes and heroines indeed! You’ve discovered your true self. You’ve conquered your negative personality.

    Whether I win or I lose a trade, I’ll never quit. Losers and winners are normal part of the game. I was downtrodden and hopeless on the markets in the past, but I experienced a turnaround once I got to know the tips and tricks for survival on the markets, and I’m disciplined enough to follow them. Yes a trader may say he’s surviving the markets instead of saying that he’s successful. I was lucky to come across those with the right thoughts on the markets. For two real traders, there are ninety trading charlatans. There are too many crooks out there – too many wolves in sheep’s clothing. But I can’t be deceived anymore. I’m free from all their lies and marketing traps. I’m free!

    “If you ever find yourself in the middle of a bumpy road in trading or in life, stay encouraged. You will make it to the peak if you realize that the valley is NOT your permanent address. Never forget, to become a butterfly, you must want to fly so badly that you are willing to give up being a caterpillar. Growth and change always go hand-in-hand with failure and fear. If you approach failure and challenges with a positive attitude, you will see how quickly you can use failure to achieve success.” — Sam Seiden

    Whether I win or lose a trade, I’m on my journey to trading mastery. Why won’t a warrior constantly pray for opportunities to show her or his prowess? I’m glad to be an experienced soldier on the battlefield of the financial markets. A soldier I am, yet I’m still learning. I’ll be a learning soldier forever, for the market is a complex thing. Trading being the second most stress-related job in the world, second only to disarming live nuclear weapons, can be approached with stress-reducing tactics. There are normal reactions to stress and these I know. Stress, just like risk, can be managed successfully.

    Whether I win or lose a trade, I won’t show any infantile reactions. I can be encouraged by a good trade, but I won’t be discouraged by a bad trade. Some others may abandon this way of life, but I won’t. People’ negative thoughts and comments on trading aren’t a headache to me. The outside world is very hard – harder than we may think. I’ll let go of the past and look forward to a brighter tomorrow. Trading is my niche; I’m comfortable with it. If you invest the time in becoming an expert then the financial reward can be huge. I’ll continue following the simple time-tested winning strategies. What benefits can you derive from an excellent speculation strategy if you fail to stick to it consistently irrespective of alternative winning and losing streaks?

    Whether I win or I lose a trade, I’ll be a successful trader. I’m just desperate enough for success (badly desperate) or I can say that those who’ve quit trading weren’t desperate enough for success. I’m aware that nothing in the market is ever perfect; no Golden Goose method of making money. Nevertheless, I’d like to declare, without mincing words, that the probability of survival is strong if a positive expectancy speculation method is used regularly with self-control.

    Whether I win or lose a trade, trading is an exciting world – a world of unlimited opportunities. Believe it or not, I’m moving up gradually higher and so you can. The me I see is the me I’ll be. Welcome to the world of financial freedom.

    Conclusion
    This article is concluded with a quote from Ken Long: “(When it comes to trading mastery) You already have the mastery within you, waiting to be called forth… Mastery is walking the path, not the destination. Should you choose to walk it each and every day, what will you find?”

  2. #2
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    Hello Analyst75!

    Nice thoughts about traders.

    what is your opinion the following:

    Why is 1% are winners traders while 99% are losers traders?

    What do you think about success rate:
    -below 50%
    -above 50%
    -higher than 70%

    When you stop trading?
    -when you lost one trade
    -when you make three consecutive winning trade
    -when you lost two trade

  3. #3
    Senior Member analyst75's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by milos View Post
    Hello Analyst75!

    Nice thoughts about traders.

    what is your opinion the following:

    Why is 1% are winners traders while 99% are losers traders?

    What do you think about success rate:
    -below 50%
    -above 50%
    -higher than 70%

    When you stop trading?
    -when you lost one trade
    -when you make three consecutive winning trade
    -when you lost two trade
    Thank you Milos, for your questions:

    Anyone who loses more than 50% of her/his capital isn't a good trader. The person needs to stop trading and go for further training. In reality, I think a good trader must not sustain more than 15% drawdowns (worst-case scenario). The smaller the loss, the quicker the recovery, and vice versa.

    Only 1% of traders in the world are consistently profitable.

    You can’t become a winning trader if you’re trading to satisfy your emotions. In order to take consistent profits, you need to enjoy taking frequent small losses.

  4. #4
    Veteran Member randy1953's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by analyst75 View Post
    Thank you Milos, for your questions:

    Anyone who loses more than 50% of her/his capital isn't a good trader. The person needs to stop trading and go for further training. In reality, I think a good trader must not sustain more than 15% drawdowns (worst-case scenario). The smaller the loss, the quicker the recovery, and vice versa.

    Only 1% of traders in the world are consistently profitable.

    You can’t become a winning trader if you’re trading to satisfy your emotions. In order to take consistent profits, you need to enjoy taking frequent small losses.
    I think what Milos was asking not if you lose 50% of your account but a 50% win rate. For example I know some traders(not me) that only have a 54% win rate on their 60 sec strategy but they always stay in profit because they use a delayed martingale which I don't advise. Not that Maringale is always a bad thing. It can and does help a good system do even better. I use it but my system is close to 80% ITM so it makes me never lose but if you have a low winrate system and you are using a mg to stay in profit one day your account will likely be gone..

    I use both a mg to keep me from ever losing and a anti-martingale to keep me in the most profits

  5. #5
    Rookie Member
    A HEART-TO-HEART TALK:
    analyst75 is very important and i nnovative idea .i appriciate your valuable opinion,Thank you.
    Last edited by pollob; 02-06-2016 at 05:50 PM.

  6. Thanks analyst75 thanked this post
  7. #6
    Senior Member analyst75's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by randy1953 View Post
    I think what Milos was asking not if you lose 50% of your account but a 50% win rate. For example I know some traders(not me) that only have a 54% win rate on their 60 sec strategy but they always stay in profit because they use a delayed martingale which I don't advise. Not that Maringale is always a bad thing. It can and does help a good system do even better. I use it but my system is close to 80% ITM so it makes me never lose but if you have a low winrate system and you are using a mg to stay in profit one day your account will likely be gone..

    I use both a mg to keep me from ever losing and a anti-martingale to keep me in the most profits
    According to one source, BO by its nature requires a greater than win rate as each bet is factored 70% - 90% gain against 100% loss. So this means that you need to achieve as a BO trader a win rate above 50% on average 54% - 58% to just break even.

    The fact is that in the long run no one can achieve more than 50% accuracy. 80%, 90%, 75% etc. hit rates are false in the end. They might be true in the hindsight, but not in live markets. Even scalpers who risk 500 USD to gain 2 USD per trade in FX trading would seem to have high hit rates, but this would drop significantly when the hit rates are reduced.

    It is fallacious to think there are computer, automated, custom, alien, astronomical, spiritual, mental, discretionary, fundamental, manual, etc. strategies that enable us to get a hit rate which is higher than 50% in future. Marketers and novice traders would tell us so, but many people have lost money with systems that are promised to carry very high accuracy because the next moment (the future) can’t be predicted. Something that sounds great in theory can fail in practice and what looks like a perfect plan can be overturned by a factor beyond our control.

    Traders are often fooled into believing they can achieve a hit rate of 70% or more permanently. You might as well do that with a toss of a coin endlessly. No matter how good or how complicated your strategy or indicator is, you’re guaranteed only 50% hit rate or less in the long run. When tossing a coin endlessly, the share between heads and tails will balance off at 50/50.

    Albeit, there can be times when heads will be hit more than tails within several weeks or months (or even years). You get heads 10 times, and tails 2 times. Then heads another 8 times and tails 3 times. Then heads 9 times and tails 4 times. This would give you a false impression that you’ve a trading approach with a high accuracy, without you being aware that it’s winning streaks that cause that. On a long-term basis, things would turn the other way and you get leveled at 50% because tails would begin to be hit more than heads (like getting tails 9 times and heads 2 times).

    The only way to survive is to make more money in winning periods than you lose in losing periods.

    The only way to enjoy longer term success in BO is to use Martingale position sizing methods, which make you double your next stake to cover the previous loss (and this doesn’t present any huge edge in itself). Please search for information on the Internet in order to know what Martingale is and how it works.

    Martingale isn’t ideal for most traders because they don’t have enough money. This is a serious problem. Too many traders open accounts with too small funds, and under such circumstances, good money management can’t be practiced.

    Unfortunately, those who’ve big accounts either don’t understand concepts of excellent position sizing or fail to respect the concepts.

    This leads us to the Gambler’s fallacy. When you’re in a losing streak, you think your chances of winning improve with next positions, since your previous ones are losses. You think the winners are around the corner. Doubling your stakes with each loss increases your negativity and depletes your account quickly.

    Maybe after 4 losing trades, which cost you 2,000 USD, you double your stake to 4,000 USD. You could have the 5th straight loss because you’re still in a losing streak.

    Even if you wait for 4 losses in a row before risking 20% of your account to recover the recent losses, you still face a gambler’s problem because your next trade could be a loss, and this has nothing to do with what happened to you in the past.

  8. #7
    Moderator Kolyo's Avatar
    Thank you for the article analyst75. It was really a pleasant to read and giving some enthusiasm that while it is a hard path it is a rewarding and most of all something that reward your heard and soul and prove your strength to combat the wins of the markets and to survive in the deep ocean even in the strongest storm. Only the most dedicated traders will see the fruits of their efforts and years of hard work!
    "The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary." - Alexander Elder

  9. #8
    Veteran Member randy1953's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by analyst75 View Post
    According to one source, BO by its nature requires a greater than win rate as each bet is factored 70% - 90% gain against 100% loss. So this means that you need to achieve as a BO trader a win rate above 50% on average 54% - 58% to just break even.

    The fact is that in the long run no one can achieve more than 50% accuracy. 80%, 90%, 75% etc. hit rates are false in the end. They might be true in the hindsight, but not in live markets. Even scalpers who risk 500 USD to gain 2 USD per trade in FX trading would seem to have high hit rates, but this would drop significantly when the hit rates are reduced.

    It is fallacious to think there are computer, automated, custom, alien, astronomical, spiritual, mental, discretionary, fundamental, manual, etc. strategies that enable us to get a hit rate which is higher than 50% in future. Marketers and novice traders would tell us so, but many people have lost money with systems that are promised to carry very high accuracy because the next moment (the future) can’t be predicted. Something that sounds great in theory can fail in practice and what looks like a perfect plan can be overturned by a factor beyond our control.

    Traders are often fooled into believing they can achieve a hit rate of 70% or more permanently. You might as well do that with a toss of a coin endlessly. No matter how good or how complicated your strategy or indicator is, you’re guaranteed only 50% hit rate or less in the long run. When tossing a coin endlessly, the share between heads and tails will balance off at 50/50.

    Albeit, there can be times when heads will be hit more than tails within several weeks or months (or even years). You get heads 10 times, and tails 2 times. Then heads another 8 times and tails 3 times. Then heads 9 times and tails 4 times. This would give you a false impression that you’ve a trading approach with a high accuracy, without you being aware that it’s winning streaks that cause that. On a long-term basis, things would turn the other way and you get leveled at 50% because tails would begin to be hit more than heads (like getting tails 9 times and heads 2 times).

    The only way to survive is to make more money in winning periods than you lose in losing periods.

    The only way to enjoy longer term success in BO is to use Martingale position sizing methods, which make you double your next stake to cover the previous loss (and this doesn’t present any huge edge in itself). Please search for information on the Internet in order to know what Martingale is and how it works.

    Martingale isn’t ideal for most traders because they don’t have enough money. This is a serious problem. Too many traders open accounts with too small funds, and under such circumstances, good money management can’t be practiced.

    Unfortunately, those who’ve big accounts either don’t understand concepts of excellent position sizing or fail to respect the concepts.

    This leads us to the Gambler’s fallacy. When you’re in a losing streak, you think your chances of winning improve with next positions, since your previous ones are losses. You think the winners are around the corner. Doubling your stakes with each loss increases your negativity and depletes your account quickly.

    Maybe after 4 losing trades, which cost you 2,000 USD, you double your stake to 4,000 USD. You could have the 5th straight loss because you’re still in a losing streak.

    Even if you wait for 4 losses in a row before risking 20% of your account to recover the recent losses, you still face a gambler’s problem because your next trade could be a loss, and this has nothing to do with what happened to you in the past.
    I'm sorry but I disagree with almost everything you said here.
    Plus houg I use it from time to time I don't believe martingale is the answer. I can help a good strategy but will never help in the long run a bad one.

    Talk about me Randy and his posts here man your post is much more dangerous to any newbie here. It's a sure way on how to blow your whole account very quickly.
    I am surprised the mods here let you post such crap. Sorry but it is crap. Saying there are no strategies that are consistently profitable and you do as well by flipping a coin. Come on man that's trash and =should make any pro trader upset when reading it.

    Not sure why you thought this was a pleasant read at all. It's garbage. Anyone promoting martingale ere the way he just did should never be on a forum with newbies. Yes I use mg a little with my strategy but I would never promote i the way you have done. Using a pure MG concept will lose all your money and it doesn't matter if you have a lot of money you will still lose it. I know traders that have had more than 14 losses i a row you know how much money you need to be able to take a hit like that. If you had that much money you would not need to trade at all.

    You are simply very wrong I have heard crap like this before. There are a few crazy people that don't believe that anything works well in trading in the long run. They think it is all by chance. They think that S& R lines, Fibs anything having to do with history is a fallacy and does not work. They think it all has to do with a flip of a coin. this is pure BS. If this was true you would never have any successful traders that been trading for a long time and we do have traders that been trading for many years and still stay in profit.
    Crap crap crap that's my opinion on what you wrote.

    I'm sure you also believe that the world is flat and if you go too far you will fall off to the side.

    Anyhow I checked on you and I see you work for Tallinex maybe that says something.
    Last edited by randy1953; 02-13-2016 at 03:54 PM.

  10. #9
    Legendry Member Okane's Avatar
    I agree with you Randy, we don't recommend Martingale to anyone, we prefer money management.
    Still don't understand what the point of these posts are, just random stuff. It's obvious
    this person isn't a trader, just copy pastes lots random things he finds.
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  11. #10
    Veteran Member randy1953's Avatar
    Yup clearly I have no idea who this is. I think he writes for Tallinext a Forex broker
    However with respect t Koylo I don't get his kindly reply to such a dangerous post for newbies. I would had told that guy to take a hike not that it was pleasant reading that creates enthusiasm?
    Sometimes I feel I am in the twilight Zone here lol
    Last edited by randy1953; 02-13-2016 at 08:14 PM.

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