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  1. #1
    Active Member

    Non farm payroll news !!!

    US news non farm payrolls up, participation rate up, technically 30 min chart macd x up, sarx up, price broke thru resistance.
    The technical happened because of the new , I usually stay away but since the news was very good in favor of the USD I took the trade.

  2. #2
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    NFP was better than expected. You had to trade only 15minutes expiry after the news. USD/JPY was under pressure this week.The price has never been crossed over 118.80 in the last 3 days.
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  3. #3
    Junior Member giveittomikeyk's Avatar
    the recent NFP was nonsensical. it had resulted in the exact opposite manner as i had expected.
    the actual figure of 292k jobs added vs. 203k forecast was definitely a positive shocker
    however the average earnings was flat compared to the forecast of 2.3%
    investors wanted to see a figure of 2.7%
    there was a word out that average earnings was an important figure to watch out
    however the 292k surprise was what really caught my attention
    the trades i took that morning at 530am PST were

    eur/usd - put - end of day
    usd/jpy - call end of day

    there was a word in the air that the nfp was surely an excellent news
    it also increased the likelihood to increase rates in the next FOMC meeting in March by up to 52% probability
    making the dollar look more attractive in the near future term
    however, eur/usd went up, and usd/jpy went down.

    i think the main reason is that the disappointment in average earnings. it was a mixed report. i did some research and this is what i found.
    after the initial reaction, traders started to look past the NFP numbers and focused on the lack of wage growth
    since lack of wage growth is a factor that would concern the Fed to be more "patient"
    theres is an old saying that "in a down trend, good news get shrugged off and traders focus on the bad news, vice versa"
    which shorters used this good news to short at a better price
    also, since chinese stock market has been crashing causing global worries,
    which might make investors flee to flexible safe haven currencies like euro and the yen

    however, if you traded aud/usd - put - end of day, or gbp/usd - put - end of day, you might have won those trades
    i should have stayed away from the jpy and euro due to global worries
    lesson learned, but i think im going to stay away from trading NFP, maybe FOMC rate hike meetings
    i have a recent bad track record of winning trades based on the NFP
    i always seem to misinterprete it and later i find out why i messed up
    and the next time around, i lose the trades again, because of a new problem i didnt imagine.
    il probably stick to technical trading for now.

  4. #4
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    the markets are disconnected right now, we will probably see corrective type trading until the next FOMC meeting, and maybe the next ECB meeting, while we wait to see what kind of trajectory the rate hike cycle will take. So, good news is bad news for now... economy strong equal rate hike, plus fear of global economy, equal down market.

  5. #5
    Rookie Member Rasman's Avatar
    I think trading on Non farm payrolls is like playing in casino.

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