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  1. #11
    Master Member Bogdan G's Avatar
    How long have you been in the markets? Trading I mean. Should we follow your advice? If yes, then why? Give us a little background info about yourself. You say only go long (should use Calls so everyone can understand) after a 300 pip move up. Dont you think that price will come down after a correction of 300 pips in a HUGE downtrend?
    I dont mean to argue or anything, I just believe that we should know more about you before following your advice (well, I wont, but others may).
    Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Albert Einstein (attributed)

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  3. #12
    Senior Member analyst75's Avatar
    I always say that people do not trade the markets; they trade their beliefs about the markets. In that same way, I'd like to point out that these updates reflect my beliefs. If my beliefs and your beliefs are not the same, you may not find them useful. I find the market update information useful for my trading, so I do the work each month and am happy to share that information with my readers.

    However, if your beliefs are not similar to mine, then this information may not be useful to you. Thus, if you are inclined to do some sort of intellectual exercise to prove one of my beliefs wrong, simply remember that everyone can usually find lots of evidence to support their beliefs and refute others. Just simply know that I admit that these are my beliefs and that your beliefs might be different.

    NB: The statements above are made by a world-renowned coach, Dr. Van. K. Tharp. That’s the answer I can give to the question from "Bogdan G". I’ll be updating this thread with my journal of weekly trades, which are basically about what I’m doing in the markets (not what people should do).

  4. #13
    Senior Member analyst75's Avatar

    Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (January 25 - 29, 2016) !!!

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    As it was prognosticated, EURUSD did not experience a significant movement last week, though price moved lower. The lower movement has resulted in a bearish signal, since there is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. There are bearish targets at the support lines of 1.0750 and 1.0700, which would be reached as price continues meandering its way further south. EURUSD, and of course other EUR pairs, could become weaker. Generally, very strong movements should be seen on most (major) pairs and crosses this week and next week.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    This currency trading instrument moved higher last week (by around 140 pips), resulting in a bullish outlook on it. The previously adamant resistance level at 1.0100, which is now a support level, was broken to the upside. Price is currently above the support level at 1.0150, threatening to go further north. The outlook on USD is now bullish, which should reflect on other USD pairs, save USDCAD. This is also true of CAD pairs, for other currencies are weak against CAD, which should continue for some time.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    Cable reached a low of 1.4078 and a high of 1.4362 last week, making a bullish effort in the context of a downtrend. The bias remains bearish, unless price goes above the distribution territory 1.4500, which is a daunting task for bulls because they would be faced with a strengthening USD. Therefore, Cable might experience some pullbacks this week.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This pair tested the demand level at 116.00 and bounced upwards by roughly 280 pips, closing at 118.77 on Friday. This rally was strong enough to become a threat to the recent bearish bias – which would be rendered useless once the supply level at 119.50 is overcome. The possibility of further rally is high, owing to the expected strength in USD. There would be strong volatility on JPY pair from this week till the end of the month.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    EURJPY consolidated throughout last week. Even bearish breakouts were quickly countered by bullish corrections. Bulls and bears are presently engaged in a deadlock struggle that will come to an end soon, for this cross will start a directional movement this week, though a rally might be difficult as long as EUR is weak. High volatility would be witnessed.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “Learning the business of trading is basically no different from learning any other business. Winning means learning major guidelines and concepts that you repeat so often in your own behavior that they become good habits. These good habits then become automatic behavior patterns…” - Andy Jordan

  5. #14
    Senior Member DaVychi's Avatar
    Good point Bogdan...

  6. #15
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by analyst75 View Post
    I always say that people do not trade the markets; they trade their beliefs about the markets. In that same way, I'd like to point out that these updates reflect my beliefs. If my beliefs and your beliefs are not the same, you may not find them useful. I find the market update information useful for my trading, so I do the work each month and am happy to share that information with my readers.

    However, if your beliefs are not similar to mine, then this information may not be useful to you. Thus, if you are inclined to do some sort of intellectual exercise to prove one of my beliefs wrong, simply remember that everyone can usually find lots of evidence to support their beliefs and refute others. Just simply know that I admit that these are my beliefs and that your beliefs might be different.

    NB: The statements above are made by a world-renowned coach, Dr. Van. K. Tharp. That’s the answer I can give to the question from "Bogdan G". I’ll be updating this thread with my journal of weekly trades, which are basically about what I’m doing in the markets (not what people should do).
    I hear what your'saying, it's your opinion and we can like it or not. Great, that's pretty much how all analysis is. Hear what Bogdan is saying, your opinion will carry more weight in the forum if you tell us who you are, how long you've been trading, what kind of indicators you use, how you get your signals and also if you use our demo platform to make some trades to prove your tips. Look at it from our perspective, what is more attractive, an anonymous random tipster or a well known and respected one?

  7. #16
    Senior Member analyst75's Avatar

    Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (February 1 - 5, 2016) !!!

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Neutral
    This pair went up from the support line at 1.0800, reaching the resistance line at 1.0950. From that resistance line, price went down 120 pips. There is a neutral bias on this pair, which would remain in force until price goes below the support line at 1.0800 or above the resistance line at 1.0950. For a few weeks, that resistance line at 1.0950 has been refusing bullish movement above it, and therefore it is more likely that price would go further downwards this week, breaking below the support line at 1.0800, owing to a bearish outlook on EUR pairs for this week and for most of February 2016.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    Last week, USDCHF moved sideways from Monday to Thursday, in the context of an uptrend, but broke upwards on Friday, reinforcing the existing uptrend. The resistance level at 1.0250 has already been tried, and there is a high possibility that price would go above that resistance level, targeting another resistance levels at 1.0300 and 1.0350. This would be easier especially in the wake of a weaker EURUSD.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    As it is always mentioned, long trades will usually be traps on GBPUSD until it is clearly confirmed that the bearish bias is completely over. Bulls made commendable effort to effect a rally last week – all of which proved futile with what happened on Friday, January 29, 2016 (a 200-pip pullback). The outlook on GBP, and therefore, GBP pairs is bearish for the month of February, even beyond the month. Bullish signals in this market should be ignored, because GBP would face challenges at many fronts, including the strengthening of AUD and NZD in this month.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    This currency trading instrument moved in a tight range from Monday to Thursday, but there was a significant bullish breakout early Friday. This bullish breakout took price upwards by 300 pips, testing the supply level at 121.50; plus the rally would continue this week. There were strong bullish breakouts also on other JPY pairs: a beginning of protracted bullish movements on those pairs. Yes, bullish movements were already expected to start on JPY pairs around the end of January, and as a result of this, traders are advised to shun bearish signals on JPY pairs in February, because the outlook on them is bullish for the month.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    This cross had already started moving upwards before the massive bullish breakout happened on Friday. Altogether, price went upwards by 400 pips last week, reaching the supply zone at 132.00. Here, pullbacks should be seen as opportunities to go long, because JPY pairs have high probabilities of trending further upwards in the month of February 2016. Currencies like EUR and GBP, which would be weak against some other currencies, would be seen going up against JPY in February. EURJPY could go further upwards by at least, 200 pips this week

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “One major aspect of Forex I really value is that trends are easy to find. Trading a trending chart has a big edge for two main reasons. First, trends generate good follow-through. In many instances they go much further than anyone might have expected.” – Gabriel Grammatidis

  8. #17
    Senior Member analyst75's Avatar
    Trading Signals for JPY Pairs (February 1 - 22, 2016)

    USDJPY = Buy

    AUDJPY = Buy

    CADJPY = Buy

    CHFJPY = Buy

    EURJPY = Buy

    GBPJPY = Buy

    NZDJPY = Buy

    NB: Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips. Only 0.5% is risked per trade. With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0.1 lots would be used. The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made. A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained. You need to use your technical analysis to know when to enter, since you may want to trade a pair only after your entry criteria have been met.

    Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.

  9. #18
    Master Member Bogdan G's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by analyst75 View Post
    Thus, if you are inclined to do some sort of intellectual exercise to prove one of my beliefs wrong, simply remember.....

    NB: The statements above are made by a world-renowned coach, Dr. Van. K. Tharp. That’s the answer I can give to the question from "Bogdan G". I’ll be updating this thread with my journal of weekly trades, which are basically about what I’m doing in the markets (not what people should do).

    No, dude, I am not inclined to do any sort of intellectual exercise that involves you.
    I have nothing against you.
    I have nothing for you.
    I do not care much.

    Simply starting the thread by saying something like: "This thread contains my opinion about the markets and my opinion comes from x,y,z" would have been better in my opinion.

    No biggie anyway
    Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Albert Einstein (attributed)

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  11. #19
    Senior Member analyst75's Avatar

    Monthly Technical Reviews on Gold and Silver (February 2016) !!!

    GOLD (XAUUSD)
    Dominant Bias: Bearish
    Gold started a persistent bullish journey a few weeks ago, and this is strong enough to threaten the current bearish bias on the market. Should the bullish journey persist for the next few days, that would lead to a new clean “buy” signal, leading to a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. There are possibilities of pullbacks this month, but as soon as price goes above the resistance level at 1155.00, then bearish positions would no longer make sense. There are support levels at 1110.50 and 1080.50, which might prevent possible pullbacks from being significant.

    SILVER (XAGUSD)
    Dominant Bias: Bearish
    Unlike Gold, Silver has not assumed a noteworthy rally. Instead, price has been consolidating within the last few weeks, and there is nothing to pose a threat to the extant bearish outlook on the market. On Silver, there is bound to be a rise in momentum this month, which might take place this week or next. Price might drop heavily or rise sharply. However, a significant rally would be more likely in case Gold continues its journey upwards. That means a bullish Gold might act as a catalyst for bullish Silver, since both are positively correlated in most cases. Should Gold experience a serious pullback, then Silver would fall further south. On the downside, price could test the support levels at 13.6100 and 14.0000. On the upside, bulls might push the price towards the resistance levels at 15.1000 and 15.5000.

  12. #20
    Senior Member analyst75's Avatar

    Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (February 8 - 12, 2016) !!!

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    This pair was engaged in a smooth bullish run last week, moving upwards 420 pips before the bearish retracement that was seen on Friday (February 5, 2016). The bearish retracement could be taken as a sale in the context of an uptrend, for the uptrend might continue this week. As long as price is above the support line at 1.0950, the bullish bias cannot be threatened. The resistance lines at 1.1250 and 1.1300 are the potential targets for bulls this week.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    Owing to the perceived weakness in USD, USDCHF dropped 340 pips last week, ending the recent bullish outlook on the market. The support level at 0.9900 was tried, before the current upward bounce, which is, however, shallow. That support level at 0.9900 could be retried again and get breached to the downside, as price possibly attains the support levels at 0.9850 and 0.9800 this week. It must be noted that the market is now below the psychological level at 1.0000; so it might be difficult for bulls to effect any bullish changes that would take the price above that level. In case the psychological level at 1.0000 is broken to the upside, then a rally that would eventually threaten the bearish bias might begin.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    From the low of January 29, 2016, Cable rose steeply, testing the distribution territory at 1.4650 on Thursday, February 4, 2016. From that distribution territory, price has come down by 200 pips, on the following day. That correction is a proof of the vulnerability of the ongoing strength in Sterling, for the outlook on GBP pairs remains bearish for this month. While GBP is strong versus USD, it is weak against certain other currencies, for instance, GBPJPY, GBPCHF, EURGBP, etc. The market might resume a rally this week, albeit further bearish correction of another 200 pips would put an end to the current bullish outlook.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The sudden and unexpected weakness of this currency trading instrument was partly due to the weakness of USD. On January 29, 2016, price touched the supply level at 121.50 and dropped 500 pips in the following week, which has resulted in an undisputed Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Long trades are not currently logical until there is a clear indication that bulls have taken control again. Right now, bears are the ones in control.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    Unlike other JPY pairs (e.g. NZDJPY, AUDJPY, etc.), EURJPY did not come down significantly because of the strength in EUR itself. Last week, price came down only by 160 pips – a movement that was not strong enough to invalidate the bullish bias on the market. Only a movement below the demand zone at 128.50 would put an end to the extant bullish bias, as price is expected to rally this week or next. It would be mentioned that JPY pairs still have the possibility of rallying this month.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “As I have matured as a trader I have become better at dealing with the emotions that come with trading. That has come simply from exposure, self-awareness and time.” – Rachel Shasha

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