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  1. #1
    Senior Member analyst75's Avatar

    Market Trading Forecasts and Predictions by Analyst75 !!!

    Here’s the market outlook for the year:

    EURUSD
    Long-term bias: Bearish
    EURUSD was generally bearish in 2015, reaching a low of 1.0462 and a high of 1.1712. The last week of that year was bearish, and the bearishness could continue till February 2016. From February to April, we would witness serious bullish effort, which would be eased at the end of April, because bears would come in again and make their presence felt in the market from April to June. However, a new lease of bullish journey would be resumed in the market around October/November, which would last till the end of the year (it would even go beyond the year, into 2017, ending around February 2017). The ongoing bias is now bearish and this should be honored.

    USDCHF
    Long-term bias: Bullish
    Since the large pullback that was seen in January 2015, USDCHF has been making perpetual effort to go upwards. Along the way, there were occasional instances of medium-term bearish phases in the market. The bearish phases would last for few weeks or months, only for price to recover and go up higher. In 2016, there could be intermittent phases of weakness in January. Then the market would most likely show further weakness in the months of February to April; but we can witness a smooth rally in the months of April to June. Right now, price is making attempts to go up, and it could reach the resistance levels at 1.0100 and 1.0150 in the first full week of January.

    GBPUSD
    Long-term bias: Bearish
    The short-term, the medium-term, and the long-term biases on GBPUSD are all bearish. Price reached a low of 1.4565 and a high of 1.5929 in the year 2015. Since June 2015, price has come down by 1100 pips, closing at 1.4732 on December 31, 2015. The year 2014 saw far more predictable movements on GBPUSD than the year 2015 (as it was true of other major pairs and crosses). This year might be different. At the present, the bias on the GBPUSD (and other GBP pairs) is bearish and this would continue till March 2016. The market could rally between March and May of this year. It could even continue to rally in June and July; but not without visible gravity attempts from the bears. Following this, there might not be another serious weakness in the market until December 2016.

    USDJPY
    Long-term bias: Bearish
    On this pair, bears won a pyrrhic victory in the year 2015. The struggle between bears and bulls were so intense that the market phases for that year were mostly consolidations and fake-out phases. The year 2014 was even better than the year 2015. The current bias is bearish, but bulls might gain upper hands before the end of January; plus their victory could last till June (though not with occasional pullbacks along the way). The market might go through some phases of weakness within July and September. Nevertheless, the bulls would push the price higher around October – an action that could last till December.

    EURJPY
    Long-term bias: Bearish
    Last year, the EURJPY cross was characterized by high volatility, choppy movements and deadly struggles between bulls and bears. The extant weakness might continue till February, when price would be strengthened till April 2016. The best action to take in the market would be to seek shorting opportunities between April and September. Additionally, the market might rally from September to November; while we would witness another phases of choppy and volatile movements in December 2016.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “You will have to stick to your process as much as you can even when things do not go as expected. If you can build such a process and manage to follow it 100 per cent of the time, then you will be trading like a professional.” – Pierre Veyret

  2. #2
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar
    this is the wrong place to post... im moving your thread to War room.
    “Don't believe anything you read on the net. Except this. Well, including this, I suppose.” ― Douglas Adams

  3. #3
    Moderator Kolyo's Avatar
    Welcome here analyst75,

    All forecasts and trading sharing threads should be on Members War Room. I hope you will like the community and will continue to contribute in a good way.
    "The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary." - Alexander Elder

  4. #4
    Senior Member analyst75's Avatar
    OK. Thanks for this kind notification.

  5. #5
    Senior Member analyst75's Avatar

    2016 Technical Reviews on Gold and Silver !!!

    GOLD (XAUUSD)
    Long-term bias: Bearish
    In 2015, Gold topped at 1307.35 and later reached a low of 1046.21. Gold was engaged in perpetual and persistent downtrend, trapping bulls with short-term bullish movements. It is completely irrational to open long trades in the market, because the bears have really made their presence felt for a long time. Years 2013, 2014 and 2015 were all strongly bearish, which explains one of the reasons why the Thanksgiving effects did not take place in those 3 years. Since this is a market that currently favors sellers, it would be rational to seek short trades only (using upward bounces opportunities to sell short, especially when bearish candles form following such upward bounces).

    SILVER (XAGUSD)
    Long-term bias: Bearish
    Just like its Gold counterpart, Silver has been in a persistent downtrend since the year 2013. In this kind of market, the best trading approach is to ignore bullish signals and capitalize on bearish signals. Bullish signals could also be taken as chances to enter short at better prices, which offer lower risk as long as the long-term bias remains bearish. Last year, price reached a high of 18.4500 and a low of 13.6100 – a low that could be breached to the downside this year. In this market, it is recommended that rallies should be viewed with suspicion until there is a “Golden Cross,” which is a situation in which price closes above the EMA 200 on the daily chart, trending upwards. This is when it can be safely said that the bearish trend is over.

  6. #6
    Senior Member analyst75's Avatar

    Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (January 11 - 15, 2016) !!!

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    From Monday till Wednesday, this pair went south. However, it started a bullish journey from Thursday till the close of the market on Friday. Bulls would continue making attempts to push the price further north, but their action would not jeopardize the extant bearish outlook unless price goes above the resistance lines at 1.0000 and 1.0050. A close below the support line at 1.0800 would reinforce the extant bearish outlook.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    USD/CHF went upwards from Monday till Wednesday, testing the resistance level at 1.0100. In spite of desperate effort, price was unable to break the resistance level to the upside. As a result of its inability to break the resistance level to the upside, price pulled back by at least 150 pips. There is a risk of further pullback, especially before the end of this week or early next week. The probability of CHF becoming very strong is possible this month, and therefore, we may see this effect on USDCHF (plus other CHF pairs). It cannot be said precisely how long the effect would last if it does happen. This is simply a seasonal tendency on CHF pairs, which have been happening for many years; only that the event of last January was unprecedented.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    Cable came down by 250 pips last week. Since December 14, 2015, price has come down 700 pips. There is a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and there is a high probability that the bearish movement would continue. The accumulation territories at 1.4000 and 1.3950 could be tested this week. Any rallies we see here would be transient; as the outlook on GBP pairs remain bearish for this week.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This is a bear market, which started a few weeks ago. Price went down 250 pips last week (and it has come down by 500 pips from the middle of December 2015). There is a lot of trading activity around the demand level at 117.50, which stands a good chance of being breached to the downside. Additional targets for this week are the demand levels at 117.00 and 116.50.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The EURJPY cross plunged by 350 pips last week, reaching the demand zone at 127.00. From that demand zone, price bounced upwards in the context of a downtrend, testing the supply level at 129.00. This is merely a bullish effort in the context of a downtrend, for the cross cannot go upwards significantly as long as the Yen has lots of stamina in it. Price could retest the demand zones at 127.50 and 127.00.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “Be ready to take advantage of very lucrative opportunities. Traders can make the most money when volatility is high.” – Joe Ross

  7. #7
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar
    Hello Analyst, please open a dedicated threads and place your analysis inside that thread. Thanks
    “Don't believe anything you read on the net. Except this. Well, including this, I suppose.” ― Douglas Adams

  8. #8
    Senior Member analyst75's Avatar

    Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (January 18 - 22, 2016) !!!

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Neutral
    This pair experienced short-term upswings and downswings, with no directional movements in the medium term. Just like last week, there may not be very strong movements this week, though there could be significant movements around the end of this month (which could happen on other major pairs as well). There are support lines at 1.0850 and 1.0800. There are also resistance lines at 1.1000 and 1.1050. Price must go above these resistance lines or support lines, paving way for a strong movement expected around the end of this month. It is likely that EUR would rally, which would be visible on all EUR pairs.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Neutral
    Whatever happens on USDCHF would be determined by what happens to EUR. The bias is now neutral, owing to the recent erratic movements in the market. There are support levels at 0.9950 and 0.9900. There are also resistance levels at 1.0050 and 1.0100; and so it is expected that price would go above these resistance levels or the support levels. A movement to the downside is more likely because the resistance level at 1.0100 is now a major barrier to bulls. That resistance level has successfully thwarted rally attempts within the last two weeks.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This currency trading instrument came down by, at least, 250 pips last week, almost testing the accumulation territory at 1.4250. Price has come down by 950 pips since the middle of December 2015. There is a very strong bearish bias on the market – it does not make sense to go long until there is a bullish retracement of about 300 pips. That is the only condition that can threaten the existing bearish bias; otherwise rallies would offer new short-selling opportunities.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    USDJPY consolidated last week, though it showed determination to continue going downwards. Price has come down by close to 600 pips since December 18, 2015, testing the demand level at 116.50 on January 15, 2016. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and it is possible that the market would continue its southward journey, just as certain JPY pairs have done.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This cross, which fell sharply in the first week of this year, simply moved sideways last week. The outlook on the cross is bearish. However, the bearish outlook might be overturned by events affecting the Euro. In case the Euro gains lots of stamina, a rally attempt might be witnessed on this cross, contrary to what other JPY pairs might be doing.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “An ideal trading methodology should allow for limited risks and unlimited gains.” – Anonymous

  9. #9
    Moderator Kolyo's Avatar
    Hi analyst75,

    Your forecasts and market commentaries are at the right place (Members War Room), but the best practice is to have your own dedicated thread for all your forecasts, commentaries and predictions. The room is organized in such a way. If you look at the threads here more carefully you will see that everybody has his own dedicated thread in this room with all his views presented there.

    I will setup your thread and move your predictions there. If you would like to have a specific title or to make some adjustments, you can do it from the thread menu or you can let me know on PM and I will help you with the setup! I hope you will post regularly and we will have a nice discussion
    "The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary." - Alexander Elder

  10. #10
    Senior Member analyst75's Avatar
    Hello Kolyo:

    I just saw this message from you. I deeply appreciate it.

    Thank you for helping me to create that thread and as from now on, my weekly trading analyses would be posted in that thread only.

    Warm regards...

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