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  1. #1
    Junior Member giveittomikeyk's Avatar

    up coming Dec 16th possible Fed rate hike !!!

    when the interest rates do get lifted off, most people would think that the dollar will get stronger.
    however, here is an interesting article on why some think that the dollar will fall after the rate hike.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gl...0TL1OR20151202

    what do you guys think??

  2. #2
    Master Member Bogdan G's Avatar
    Thanks for the link. I think the last rate hike was so far back that we cannot base our bias/predictions on how the dollar reacted then.
    I have no opinion about it. I will wait and see.
    Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Albert Einstein (attributed)

  3. #3
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    The dollar is going to rise not so much on the rate hike, but on a series of rate hikes and long lasting secular economic bull market. The move in the euro last week was, in my opinion, a short sighted reaction to a somewhat surprising ECB meeting that led to massive short covering. The fundamentals remain in place, the ECB is going to be QE'ing until at least 2017, the FOMC will have raised rates a couple of times by then.... the dollar/euro parity scenario is definitely on the table.

  4. #4
    Junior Member giveittomikeyk's Avatar
    Forex Sentiment Warns that US Dollar Likely to Continue Lower

    https://beta.dailyfx.com/forex/techn...ble_story.html

  5. #5
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by giveittomikeyk View Post
    Forex Sentiment Warns that US Dollar Likely to Continue Lower

    https://beta.dailyfx.com/forex/techn...ble_story.html
    I don't see it....ecb qe, fomc rate hikes, don't equal weaker dollar. Unless the ECB posts some surprising growth in the next couple of weeks.

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  7. #6
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    And I think that with labor markets the way they are there is a real chance that the first rate hike will be more than 50 bps, and/or that there will indication of another rate hike earlier than expected.

  8. #7
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    50/50% to be risen interest rates by the Fed.I think the big marker players want to make more profit.That's EUR/USD reached 1.10 this week.It is needed weaker euro to stimulate export business.There is deflation in the euro zone.If the Fed hike rates EUR/USD parity will be expected soon.

  9. #8
    Master Member Bogdan G's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    And I think that with labor markets the way they are there is a real chance that the first rate hike will be more than 50 bps, and/or that there will indication of another rate hike earlier than expected.
    50 bps? I'd like to see that considering that most forecasts mention 25 bps. We'll surely have some good movement.
    Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Albert Einstein (attributed)

  10. #9
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Bogdan G View Post
    50 bps? I'd like to see that considering that most forecasts mention 25 bps. We'll surely have some good movement.
    Fed funds futures rates have a 50 bps rate hike at 85% probability.

  11. #10
    Junior Member giveittomikeyk's Avatar
    sorry guys. this is the last time i will bother everyone about the contrarian expectation of the weaker Dollar after the hike
    but i thought it was interesting

    5 Reasons To Sell USD Post Hike:
    http://www.investing.com/analysis/5-...st-hike-375797

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