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  1. #1
    Junior Member giveittomikeyk's Avatar

    sad1 strange movements on the NFP this morning !!!

    so as soon as i saw that 211k NFP compared to 201K forecast, i placed these trades
    eur/usd - 15m, 30m put
    usd/jpy - 15m put
    gold - 30m put

    i lost them all. i traded it like last month's NFP
    the NFP this morning was a bullish sign for the dollar, but
    and it turns out that even 211k wasnt extreme enough for bold movements towards the anticipated direction
    ironically, the assets moved towards the other direction
    any one else in the same boat?

  2. #2
    Legendry Member Okane's Avatar
    Ok, let me explain it to you.

    First, where did you get your news from?
    Didn't you see there where 4 FOUR announcements coming out at the same time, high impact and one medium?
    So you went with one of them hoping it would count for all four? Why?

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Then, it says on NFP=
    Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; So it should be good for USD.
    Then why would you take a PUT on USD/JPY? Good for USD and USD is base pair = UP.

    So anyway, when there are 4 different announcements it gets hard to jump in a trade based on only one news result.
    First you have news that was GOOD for USD, then Trade Balance that was BAD for USD, then Unemployment was unchanged which
    even I am not sure about how to trade... and finally, hourly earnings unchanged. You have some mixed results and
    what you would expect could be that the announcements would cancel each other out and as you can see price fell
    due to NFP (on EUR/USD, and rose up on USD/JPY) and other announcements just made the prices recover to where they were quickly
    after. I took my trade 30 minutes later when price had recovered and took a put on EUR/USD based on Daily resistance. I hope
    you understand your mistakes now, let me know if you need more help .
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  4. #3
    Legendry Member Okane's Avatar
    Furthermore, I'm glad you asked this because I am pretty sure many others
    make similar mistakes.
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  6. #4
    Junior Member giveittomikeyk's Avatar
    thanks for your wise words okane. sorry it was a typo, i went usd/jpy - call - 15min
    i actually took these trade set ups from a webinar from my broker.
    i traded the last month's nfp with this set up and it worked well
    and this was my 2nd time trading nfp, so i figured the same would work. ha!

    thanks for filling me on the mixed results on the news
    i actually filtered out the lesser important events on my eco calendar, so i did not see the trade balance for US
    but i never thought about evaluating the whole package as mixed results due to other negative data balancing things out
    after about 5mins the assets were ITM but went OTM far real quick

    i have alot to learn, thanks for your reply.
    im hoping to recover my losses with the upcoming december 16th FOMC rate hike decision meeting
    as of right now, if the interest rate hike takes place, im planning to trade with pretty much the same kind of set up as i did this morning
    what do you think?

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  8. #5
    Moderator Kolyo's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Okane View Post
    Ok, let me explain it to you.

    First, where did you get your news from?
    Didn't you see there where 4 FOUR announcements coming out at the same time, high impact and one medium?
    So you went with one of them hoping it would count for all four? Why?

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	news.jpg 
Views:	19 
Size:	51.9 KB 
ID:	3760

    Then, it says on NFP=
    Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; So it should be good for USD.
    Then why would you take a PUT on USD/JPY? Good for USD and USD is base pair = UP.

    So anyway, when there are 4 different announcements it gets hard to jump in a trade based on only one news result.
    First you have news that was GOOD for USD, then Trade Balance that was BAD for USD, then Unemployment was unchanged which
    even I am not sure about how to trade... and finally, hourly earnings unchanged. You have some mixed results and
    what you would expect could be that the announcements would cancel each other out and as you can see price fell
    due to NFP (on EUR/USD, and rose up on USD/JPY) and other announcements just made the prices recover to where they were quickly
    after. I took my trade 30 minutes later when price had recovered and took a put on EUR/USD based on Daily resistance. I hope
    you understand your mistakes now, let me know if you need more help .
    Very good explanation! We have to always repeat ourselves that news trading is a multilayer process with many variables in the equation. We have to listen carefully for all different aspects of the data released and find the best reasons to trade, not to think in black and white, but always searching for clues of sentiment between the lines
    "The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary." - Alexander Elder

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  10. #6
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    Let me add the following:
    You had to watch the all news was published at the same time.
    They were Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate and Unemployment Change for Canadian dollar.
    They were Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Index for the US dollar.

    Compare the news:
    Worse than expected news for Canadian dollar.
    Mixed for the US dollar but better than expected.
    In this case it is needed to wait 25-30 minutes and then enter into position. In this case call option on USD/CAD H1 expiry 9am by EST.It expired 10am by EST.

    You may ask why?
    Because the next news was published at 10am by EST for Canadian dollar. It was better than expected.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Last edited by milos; 12-05-2015 at 06:21 AM.

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  12. #7
    Junior Member giveittomikeyk's Avatar
    thank you for your reply Milos. i read your article about the Milos 15min strategy by the way and id like to try it out when i have more experience. anyways, what would be your reasoning behind that you would wait at least 30mins before entering a position? would u recommend doing that for trading every NFP as well?

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